Market analysis

辉达(NVDA)财测展望在市场的高标准期待下稍嫌不足，导致美股期货在亚洲时段下跌。不过，美国第二季 GDP 修正值上修至 3.3%（高于预期的 3.1%），初领失业金人数从 23.4 万人回落至 22.9 万人（优于预期的 23.0 万人），显示美国经济韧性仍强，进一步收敛跌幅。盘中市场消化财报利空后，AI 投资趋势的长线信心吸引逢低买盘进场，最终带动大盘指数翻红。类股方面，资讯科技表现亮眼。辉达 CEO 黄仁勋在法说会中驳斥「AI投资放缓」的疑虑，强调未来五年将有数兆美元的市场机会。受此激励，博通(AVGO)、美光(MU)、思科(CSCO)皆同步上涨，超微(AMD)亦受惠。AI 软体与基础建设概念股同样走强，Datadog(DDOG)、甲骨文(ORCL)、ServiceNow(NOW)普遍收高。通讯服务类股涨幅居前。Meta(META)与 Alphabet(GOOGL)受惠于数位税政策疑虑降温，其中 Alphabet 创历史新高。在 Jackson Hole 会议后，市场认为联准会降息门槛降低，风险偏好有所提升。防御型板块如公用事业、必需型消费品与医疗保健则相对疲软，投资人资金回流至成长与科技题材。 

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Affirm's earnings exceeded expectations, its share price rose 15% after hours, and its operations officially turned profitable

Affirm (AFRM) reported outstanding financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with revenue and earnings per share (EPS) exceeding market expectations, pushing after-hours shares to surge 15%. The company achieved a turnaround in operations for the first time and reiterated its previous profit commitment schedule, demonstrating the continued expansion potential of its "Buy Now Pay Later"(BNPL) business model. However, in the face of challenges such as Walmart's change to cooperate with competitor Klarna and Klarna's upcoming listing, Affirm still needs to strengthen its competitive advantage and partner ecosystem in the future.

The turnaround in operating earnings boosted market confidence, with Affirm surging after hours and extending its full-year gain to more than 45%. Whether it can continue to grow in the future will depend on its ability to cope with fierce competition and expand business cooperation.

• Outstanding financial performance
  Affirm公布每股盈余为0.20美元，几乎为市场预估的两倍（预估为0.11美元）；营收达8.76亿美元，亦优于预期的8.37亿美元。

• Operating loss turned into profit
  本季净利为6,920万美元，去年同期为亏损4,510万美元；公司强调这是根据去年既定计划实现的营运获利目标。

• Growth in total commodity transactions
  本季总交易金额（GMV）达104亿美元，较去年同期成长43%，显示消费者对BNPL模式接受度持续升高。

• The pressure on the competitive environment is heating up
  Affirm尽管与Amazon、Shopify、Apple合作稳固，但Walmart近期转向与Klarna合作，后者也准备IPO，将加剧市场竞争。

• Solid future outlook
  Affirm预测下一季营收为8.55亿至8.85亿美元，GMV预估介于101亿至104亿美元，持续展现成长动能。

 

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general manager Daryl

The rotation of U.S. stocks funds accelerates, and small stocks significantly outperform technology stocks, setting a historical gap

In August, the U.S. stock market showed a clear trend of capital rotation. The small-cap Russell 2000 index rose by 7.3% in a single month, far exceeding the 1.5% gain of the technology-dominated Nasdaq 100, setting one of the weakest relative performances of 5% since 1985. Federal Reserve Chairman Bauer signaled a possible interest rate cut in Jackson Hole, coupled with investors 'doubts about AI investment returns, prompting the market to shift from high-valuation technology stocks to small-cap stocks with more valuation advantages.

As expectations of interest rate cuts heat up and investors adjust their investment portfolios, small caps are facing a rare moment to lead the gains. Whether the subsequent gains can continue will depend on U.S. employment data, inflation and the direction of the Fed's decision-making.

• Small stocks clearly outperform large technology stocks
  8月Russell 2000指数上涨7.3%，远超Nasdaq 100的1.5%，ETF数据显示iShares Russell 2000 ETF大涨，而Invesco QQQ基本持平。

• Interest rate cuts are expected to be the main catalyst
  鲍尔暗示最快9月可能降息，带动依赖融资的小型企业受惠更多，反观现金流充裕的科技巨头反应相对平淡。

• Doubts about AI growth emerge
  市场对AI未来报酬与商业化速度产生怀疑，尤其Nvidia (NVDA) 尽管财报稳健，但受限中国禁令与营收前景不明，科技股投资情绪转趋保守。

• Technology stocks remain high valuations
  尽管UBS认为AI潜力足以支撑高估值，但若未能兑现收益预期，恐对股价构成压力，尤其在市场对高利率敏感时期。

• Follow-up observations focus on the Fed
  9月将公布的非农就业（9/5）、CPI通膨数据（9/11）及FOMC会议（9/17）将影响资金是否续流入小型股，成为后市关键变数。

 

The EU and the United States have reached a new trade agreement that will reduce car tariffs on both sides and eliminate tariffs on some industrial products

The EU and the United States reached a trade framework agreement at the end of July. The European Commission proposed to cancel import tariffs on U.S. industrial products in exchange for reducing U.S. tariffs on European cars. The agreement is aimed at preventing the tariff war from escalating. Although it is not reciprocal, it is still regarded by the EU as an option of "choosing the lesser of two evils." Although the two sides have not yet compromised on sensitive projects such as digital services and steel and aluminum, the agreement still represents a major compromise between the world's two largest economies against the backdrop of rising protectionism.

The new trade agreement between Europe and the United States shows that both sides are willing to seek mutually beneficial compromises in a protectionist environment. However, the agreement still has asymmetry and potential disputes, and whether cooperation can be expanded in the future remains to be seen.

• EU cancels some tariffs on US industrial products
  欧盟提议取消多数美国工业产品关税，包括部分农产品如马铃薯与猪肉，借此换取美方降低汽车关税，展现务实姿态。

• US auto tariffs drop to 15%
  原本高达27.5%的欧洲汽车进口关税将降至15%，此措施已自8月1日起生效，对德国与义大利车厂具明显利多。

• The unequal agreement raises doubts
  欧盟需做出更多让步，包括购买美国能源与取消更多关税，而美方仍保留对70%欧盟出口品的关税。

• Sensitive items not included in the agreement
  双方未就数位税、钢铁、铝与稻米等产品达成共识，其中钢与铜等仍维持高达50%的关税。

• Brazil launches retaliation assessment process
  因美方对巴西商品征收50%关税，巴西正评估是否启动贸易报复，拉美与美国间贸易紧张有升温趋势。

 

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has challenged the Trump administration to challenge the president's dismissal authority and defend the central bank's independence

Lisa Cook, director of the U.S. Federal Reserve, formally filed a lawsuit accusing President Trump of having no right to remove him, a move that may have a significant impact on the independence of the Federal Reserve. Trump announced the dismissal of Cook on the grounds that she was suspected of mortgage fraud before taking office at the Fed in 2021. However, Cook denied the accusation and filed a temporary injunction request that the court block the removal. The case could turn into a constitutional lawsuit and further affect financial markets 'confidence in U.S. monetary policy.

This case is not only a personal position dispute, but also a major challenge to the RSC's principle of immunity from political interference. It may eventually be sent to the Supreme Court. The result will affect the perception of global financial markets on the independence of the U.S. central bank.

• Trump's attempt to oust Cook sparks legal battle
  川普于8月25日宣布将解除Cook职务，指其在2021年涉入房贷诈欺，但Cook强调自己未违法，并以「未经正当程序」为由提起诉讼。

• Federal Reserve's independence faces test
  法律规定总统仅能「因故」罢免联准会理事，川普是否具备此权限成为诉讼焦点，案件可能冲击央行免受政治干预的根基。

• Markets create uncertainty about policy prospects
  诉讼消息公布后，美元走软，市场担忧联准会决策可能遭受白宫干预，尤其在川普持续施压要求降息的背景下。

• Political appointments and judicial wrangling heat up
  若Cook被免职，川普将有机会任命盟友进入Fed董事会，并加速提名Stephen Miran以掌控货币政策投票权。

• The Federal Reserve has never seen before legal test
  自1913年Fed成立以来，从无总统罢免理事的前例，此案将成为定义中央银行治理架构与行政权限边界的指标案件。

 

stocks

Huida and the White House discuss exporting AI chips to China, with a market valuation of US$50 billion but facing geopolitical resistance

NVDA CEO Huang Renxun said that negotiations with the Trump administration on exporting "downsized versions" of Blackwell series AI chips to China are still in their early stages and are expected to take time to advance. Although the China market is valued at US$50 billion, there are still major security concerns within Washington about the export of any AI capabilities to China. Huida has excluded China sales from this quarter's financial forecast, highlighting that the Sino-US science and technology war continues to pose a high degree of uncertainty to its operating prospects.

Huida attempts to maintain market share in China, but must seek political compromise amid the technological tussle between the United States and China. The smooth global expansion of its AI business still depends on Washington's policy direction and the outcome of chip export licensing negotiations.

• Downsized Blackwell chips are in focus
  辉达正与白宫协商向中国出口效能低30%至50%的Blackwell晶片，作为规避全面禁售的折衷方案，但尚未获出口许可。

• The potential value of the China market is huge
  黄仁勋表示，中国AI市场对辉达估值高达500亿美元，公司希望在政治限制之下，仍能回补部分营收缺口。

• China sales expectations have been excluded
  本季财测未纳入中国贡献，显示对出口政策仍充满不确定性，即便川普政府曾就H20晶片提供15%销售分成换取许可。

• Geopolitical risks remain high
  美国鹰派认为即使是降阶晶片亦可能被中国军事用途挪用，对技术扩散风险持续高度警觉。

• CEO demonstrates flexible negotiation stance
  黄仁勋表态若为达成出口许可，「愿接受任何条件」，凸显公司对维持中国业务的迫切性与策略务实。

 

Tesla's self-driving technology has been questioned by U.S. consumers, the appeal of FSD has declined instead of increasing, and its brand reputation continues to deteriorate

A new survey shows that Tesla's main fully autonomous driving (FSD Supervised) technology has not only failed to become a brand selling point, but has instead caused more American consumers to hesitate to buy the brand. The result has intensified the market's doubts about its self-driving strategy and safety, and also highlighted the pressure of declining global sales and intensified market competition. At the same time, competitors such as Waymo have achieved a leading position in the self-driving market through more cautious deployment strategies.

FSD failed to impress the mainstream market and became a burden on Tesla's brand. If its safety image and user trust cannot be quickly improved, self-driving technology may not become Tesla's growth engine.

• FSD arouses consumer disgust
  根据Slingshot Strategies调查，仅14%受访者因FSD更愿购买Tesla，反之高达35%表示会因此转向其他品牌，近半数甚至认为应禁止FSD上路。

• Brand trust continues to deteriorate
  调查指出，目前36%消费者认为Tesla不安全，远高于Honda与Toyota；特斯拉在近月频繁面临产品责任诉讼，更加剧市场疑虑。

• Sales and expansion encounter bottlenecks
  Tesla在欧洲市场7月销量年减40%，为连续第七个月下滑；而在美国，FSD与自驾计程车试营运遭遇法规与社区沟通不足的挑战。

• Differences in strategy with Waymo
  相较Waymo强调高解析地图与分阶段部署，Tesla采用以AI与摄影机为核心的快速扩张策略，被业界认为更具风险但可节省成本。

• The prospects for self-driving remain highly uncertain
  尽管Elon Musk声称FSD将带来「超指数级成长」，但市场分析师普遍认为Tesla全面部署自驾服务的时间点可能延后至2028年之后。