Employment cooling drives up interest rate cuts, betting on semiconductors to support the market from rising to falling

U.S. stocks turned from rise to fall after the latest employment data showed a significant slowdown in employment. Funds shifted to semiconductor and AI supply chains with growth certainty, and most large technology stocks weakened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was temporarily reported at 45,333.45, down 0.63%; the S & P 500 was temporarily reported at 6,468.35, down 0.52%; the Nasdaq Composite Index was temporarily reported at 21,654.56, down 0.24%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index bucked the trend and rose to 5,730.4, up 1.10%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has dropped to about 4.07%, and the rapid loosening of interest rate expectations has become the main theme of the market.

Semiconductor strengthens to become a safe haven for funds. AI chain theme drives the index to resist decline

The AI and semiconductor communities have been surrounded by buyers, continuing their recent strength. Broadcom(Broadcom, AVGO) surged 11.11%. The company's financial report exceeded expectations and revealed that it added a major customer with a scale of approximately US$10 billion. The market is generally speculated that it is OpenAI, which stimulates relevant supply chain sentiment. In contrast, Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) shares fell 6.10% after brokers downgraded their ratings and questioned the momentum of AI accelerators. Nvidia(NVDA) retreated by approximately 2.95%, but under the upward trend of the Feb-half index, the overall chip population remains resilient relative to the broader market.

Large equity stocks diverged in performance, Tesla bucked the trend and attacked

The trend of the seven dominant U.S. stocks is sawing, affecting the point contribution of the market. Tesla(TSLA) rose 3.96%, as the market focused on the board's proposed ten-year salary plan, which could total US$1 trillion if conditions were met, boosting bullish sentiment. Apple(Apple, AAPL) fell slightly 0.09%, Microsoft(Microsoft, MSFT) weakened 2.66%, Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 0.74%, Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) fell 1.17%, and Meta Platforms(Facebook, META) remained flat. Huida retreated but the transaction momentum was still high, indicating that funds have not been significantly withdrawn from the AI main line.

Consumption and apparel are under pressure, Lulu Lemon's heavy decline dragged down related stocks

Consumer themes suffered a negative impact. Lululemon Athletica(LULU) plunged 18.58%. The company revised its full-year outlook due to increased costs caused by new US tariffs and the elimination of low-cost import duty-free quotas. Coupled with soft domestic demand in the United States, the performance of the same store was not as expected, triggering selling pressure and affecting the sports, leisure and apparel retail chains.

Software and renewable energy differentiation DocuSign surged, but some clouds were flat

The software community's performance was divided within the market, with DocuSign (DOCU) jumping after profits and revenue exceeded expectations, raised its full-year outlook and emphasized the expansion of demand for AI products by large companies. Copart(Copart, CPRT) weakened as revenue fell short of expectations and vehicle sales fell. Among the renewable energy themes, Enphase Energy(ENPH) surged 7.48%, becoming the highlight of the electronics and new energy branch line amid the fall in interest rates and the restoration of risk appetite. Pool(Pool, POOL) rose 5.04%, relatively prominent in the generally stressful environment of prosperity sensitive indicators.

Volume and energy focus event stocks and AI main lines are abnormally large and accompanied by violent fluctuations

Today's volume can be significantly concentrated on targets catalyzed by clear news or supported by industry trends. Driven by the financial report and major client themes, Broadcom's trading volume significantly increased, and its stock price ranked first; Lulu Lemon's volume fell sharply due to the downward revision of the financial forecast; Supermicro changed hands due to the downward revision of the review;DocuSign's volume rose sharply due to the positive financial report. The volume-energy structure shows that funds respond more directly to growth certainty and short-term news, and on-the-market transactions are dominated by themes.

Employment data shows significant slowdown in growth, the chance of a September interest rate cut is fully absorbed by the market

The latest non-agricultural employment has only added about 22,000 people, far lower than the market estimate of 75,000, the unemployment rate rose to about 4.3%, and the data in the past few months have been revised downward, indicating that the momentum of the labor market continues to cool. Interest rate futures showed that the market had fully priced in the possibility of a September Fed rate cut, and bets on a larger 50 basis point cut were heating up. Yields fell across the board, falling below about 4.79% for the 30-year yield and falling back to about 4.07% for the 10-year yield, benefiting interest-sensitive assets.

Interest rates and foreign exchange markets respond in sync with volatility indicators rise but risk aversion is limited

Amid rapid repricing of interest rates, the dollar weakened against the euro, pound and yen, indicating funds are adjusting to the prospects of cooling the U.S. economy and interest rate cuts. The VIX panic index rose, reflecting increased expectations of short-term volatility, but overall risk sentiment was still strongly supported by AI and semiconductors. In terms of commodities, oil prices fell and gold prices rose, indicating that concerns about slowing growth coexist with the need to hedge interest rate cuts. Most mainstream crypto assets are up, and risk appetite seeks to be dispersed outside stocks and bonds.

Index futures have shifted from rising to falling trends to data and policy-driven

After the data was released, index futures turned from more in early trading to more volatile and weaker, and the market structure showed a differentiated response to interest-rate sensitive and high-price-to-earnings ratio assets. Among the growth stocks, the visibility of the AI semiconductor chain is counteracting against the decline, the business cycle and consumption weakness. In the short term, interest rate pricing, Fed officials 'talks and corporate AI capital expenditure clues will continue to affect the market trend and the speed of stock rotation.

Political noise heats up but markets focus on fundamentals and monetary policy

Against the background of slowing employment and policy games, the market is more sensitive to official statistics and decision-making paths. The outside world is concerned about the White House's recent personnel changes in the labor statistics agency and its comments on the RSC, but disk pricing still focuses on economic data and the probability of interest rate cuts. Investors continue to pay attention to next inflation and employment signals, as well as the latest guidance from corporate financial forecasts on demand profiles.