Market analysis

昨日盘前美国公布 7 月新屋开工数据优于市场预期（年化后自 135.8 万户上升至 142.8 万户），显示美国房市需求仍具支撑。另外，家得宝(HD)第二季财报同店销售转正，全年展望并未下修，使美股开盘后一度走高，展现出消费的韧性。然而，美股在关税战后大幅上涨，面临庞大获利了结卖压，主要指数除道琼外全面下挫，高估值的科技股首档其冲领跌，那指及费半分别下跌 1.46%、1.81%。类股方面，资讯科技普遍走弱，半导体股如辉达(NVDA)、超微(AMD)、博通(AVGO)均下跌，软体股中 Palantir(PLTR)更大跌超过 9%，成为本日跌幅最深的个股，反映强劲涨势后的获利了结。不过，软银宣布将斥资 20 亿美元收购英特尔(INTC)股票以扩大晶片布局，推动英特尔股价大涨近 7%，成为盘面亮点。相较之下，房地产与必需型消费类股支撑大盘。前者受新屋开工数表现亮眼带动，后者则受家得宝财报激励。

 

Quick view of financial report

Home Depot maintains its full-year outlook, benefiting from solid demand from professional customers and implementing small price adjustments in response to tariffs

Although Home Depot (HD) announced its latest financial results that were lower than expected, it still maintained its 2.8% revenue growth and 1% same-store sales growth forecast for fiscal 2025. The company pointed out that the price of some products will increase due to the recent tariff increase imposed by the United States, although the adjustment is limited. As demand for professional contractors continues to stabilize, Home Depot continues to invest in its supply chain and delivery capabilities, hoping to stabilize its performance momentum amid the housing market downturn and economic uncertainty.

• Outlook for the whole year remains stable
  Home Depot维持全年营收成长2.8%、每股盈余预估小幅下滑2%，反映对下半年市场仍具信心。

• Tariffs prompt a shift in price adjustment strategies
  部分进口品项面临更高关税，公司将对特定类别商品进行温和调价，不再维持原先的全面冻涨立场。

• Professional customers are the main force for growth
  专业客群占营收约55%，透过收购SRS与GMS扩展高价值客户基础，并提升交付效率。

• U.S. same-store sales grow for three consecutive quarters
  Q2美国同店销售成长1.4%，为连续第三季正成长，7月表现最强，带动季末动能转强。

• Uncertainty remains in the housing market and interest rates
  尽管消费者延后大型装修项目，但公司乐观预期未来利率下调将释放潜在需求。

 

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

The United States expands tariffs on steel and aluminum to more than 400 products, threatening to push up inflation and hit supply chains

The Trump administration has once again upgraded trade protection measures and expanded the 50% steel and aluminum tariff to 407 new product categories, covering high-value imported goods such as auto parts, home appliances, building materials, and electric vehicle components. This policy is seen as a strategy to curb tariff evasion and strengthen the domestic steel and aluminum industry, but it has also attracted high market attention to rising prices and supply chain pressures. According to estimates, the amount of affected imports will exceed US$200 billion.

• The scope of new tariffs has been significantly expanded
  涵盖风力涡轮、压缩机、冷气机、铁道车辆、摩托车、包装金属等超过400类产品。

• Extensive industrial impact
  电动车业者如特斯拉 (TSLA) 抗议无国内替代供应，部分外国汽车商也反对新政策，忧心生产成本上升。

• Tariffs are estimated to affect more than US$200 billion in imports
  专家指出新关税涵盖去年总值逾2,000亿美元的进口商品，将推升整体有效关税率约1个百分点。

• Increased inflation risks
  分析认为，此举可能加剧物价上行压力，尤其在7月生产者物价指数(PPI)已呈上升趋势之际。

• The policy goal is to strengthen industrial dominance
  商务部表示此举是为打击关税规避行为，支援美国钢铁与铝业持续复苏。

 

industry

The United States plans to invest in major chip manufacturers subsidized by the CHIPS Act to expand the government's strategic control over semiconductors

U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick is pushing to obtain equity interests in chip companies that receive subsidies from the CHIPS Act, extending a previous plan to take a 10% stake in Intel (INTC). This move marks the first time that the United States has invested in a key technology company in peacetime on national security and economic grounds. The goals include Micron (MU), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Samsung. The move highlights the Trump administration's attempt to increase its influence on the domestic semiconductor supply chain and reshape the policy benefits and commercial structure of the CHIPS Act.

• Equity-for-subsidy model expands
  继对英特尔拟入股10%后，政府考虑将股权机制扩及其他主要受补助企业如美光、台积电与三星。

• Dual considerations of national security and economy
  白宫发言人指出，此举为优先保障美国国安与经济利益的「创新措施」，将开启前所未有的政府与产业合作模式。

• Trump and Lutnick lead the renegotiation of CHIPS conditions
  商务部正重新检讨先前拜登政府的补助条件，认为过于宽松，并推动更有利于美国的谈判架构。

• Control foreign investment with reference to the "gold stocks" model
  类似先前川普政府批准日本制铁收购美国钢铁的「黄金股」条件，防堵资本外移、产线关闭与投资缩减风险。

• CHIPS subsidies total US$52.7 billion
  目前已分配的包括台积电66亿美元、美光62亿美元与三星47.5亿美元，后续补助仍有调整空间与谈判弹性。

 

stocks

The United States plans to exchange equity for Intel subsidies, SoftBank also injects US$2 billion to help stabilize chip giants

The U.S. government plans to convert the CHIPS Act subsidy approved during the Biden administration into a 10% stake in Intel (INTC), marking the first time that the U.S. has participated in a domestic semiconductor company in the form of equity. The move not only marks the Trump administration's deepening involvement in strategic industries, but also triggers discussions about the expansion of the government's role. At the same time, SoftBank announced a $2 billion investment in Intel, becoming its sixth largest shareholder. Dual funding provided much-needed support for Intel, which was in a loss.

• US government seeks non-voting equity
  美方希望以补助转换方式取得约10%股权，作为对国安与经济的长期投资，不干预营运决策。

• SoftBank invests in Intel
  SoftBank将以每股23美元取得近2%股权，未承诺购买晶片或入董事会，纯属财务投资。

• Intel is under heavy financial pressure
  2024年亏损达188亿美元，为近40年来首见，主因为AI晶片市场失利与制造代工部门表现不佳。

• Trump administration changes CHIPS strategy
  与拜登时期的无附带补助不同，现改为要求企业提供回报，强调「纳税人应享有一部分红利」。

• US and Japan double fund support chip strategy
  SoftBank本次出资不属于日前日方承诺的5,500亿美元对美投资计划，显示对Intel布局另有战略考量。

 

Huida develops a new AI chip B30A dedicated for China, which adopts Blackwell architecture and has better performance than H20

NVDA is developing a new generation AI chip B30A for the China market. The performance is expected to be better than the current H20 and adopts the latest Blackwell architecture. Although the Biden administration has restricted the export of advanced chips, the Trump administration recently reached an agreement with Vitek to allow some shipments to resume on condition that it pay a 15% rebate on China sales. Although political risks remain high, Huida hopes to maintain its market position in China and avoid companies turning fully to local alternatives such as Huawei.

• B30A performance improvement, specifications not finalized
  新晶片采单晶片设计，推估为B300性能的「五成版本」，支援高频宽记忆体与NVLink资料传输技术。

• Export authorizations remain highly uncertain
  虽川普暗示可接受降规版本进入中国，但美国立法者仍担忧AI技术外流风险。

• Profit-sharing model with the U.S. government continues
  辉达与AMD同意让美国政府抽取中国高阶晶片销售15%收益，以换取出口许可。

• The China market still has strategic value to Huida
  中国去年占辉达营收13%，若市场转向华为或本地业者，恐导致辉达生态系被边缘化。

• Huida also deployed a variety of China dedicated chips
  除B30A外，辉达另计划推出主打AI推论任务的RTX6000D，预计9月小规模交货。