Lead: As both new players in the Hong Kong stock gold sector, the capital destinies of Saturday Fu and Laopu Gold are vastly different.Since its listing in June 2024, Laopu Gold's share price has soared 22 times, and its market value has exceeded HK$150 billion; while on Saturday, Fu surged to HK$52.5 in the first week of listing and quickly fell back. The market value is less than HK$15 billion, which is only equivalent to one-tenth of Laopu Gold.

Hong Kong stocks and gold stocks are booming

In the first half of 2025, Hong Kong and gold stocks ushered in a "wild trend".

Laopu Gold, as the leader of gold retail in Hong Kong stocks, rose 321% in the first half of the year. At the end of June, the stock price exceeded HK $1000/share, and the market value soared to HK $174.1 billion, becoming the company with the largest increase in Hong Kong stocks.During the same period, Hong Kong stocks and gold stocks such as Emperor Watch and Jewelry, Dragon Resources, and Datang Gold all rose by more than 100%.In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by only 20% during the same period, and gold stocks significantly outperformed the broader market.

As a new player in the Hong Kong stock gold sector.Before going public, Saturday Fortune was very popular.According to Metropolis Trading Data, during the subscription stage, Fortune Global sold 53.8292 million H shares on Saturday, with Hong Kong public offering accounting for 43.48%, and international offering accounting for 56.52%.The price is priced at HKD 24/share, and the global offering has a net raise of approximately HKD 1.193 billion.

However, after the listing, Saturday Fortune's share price was not satisfactory-in the week of the launch, Saturday Fortune quickly fell back after a high of HK$52.5, and its market value was less than HK$15 billion, which was only one-tenth of that of Laopu's gold.

Saturday: The scale dilemma of asset-light joining

Saturday Fook's business model can be called "McDonald's in the jewelry industry"-it has built a network of more than 4100 stores with 97.8% of franchise stores. Although store development has expanded "viral", the essence of franchise companies 'operations is brand authorization business.Franchisees only need to pay an annual fee to use the brand, and can even purchase products independently from a white list of authorized suppliers.

The financial report shows that half of Saturday Fortune's revenue comes from service fees (gross profit margin of more than 95%), and the other half comes from selling gold to franchise stores (gross profit margin of only 15%-20%).Although this "OEM" model achieves rapid sinking (Stores in third-tier cities account for 56.9%), but there are three hidden dangers: first, out-of-control product quality (more than 4000 complaints from Black Cat, involving weight concealment and price fraud); second, the hollow out of brand value, and consumer awareness has always been trapped in the "Chow Tai Fook Shanzhai Edition" controversy; third, the fluctuation of gold prices directly affects terminals. When the price of gold soared by 26% in 2024, a net 674 franchise stores were closed, resulting in "no money to make" due to consumers holding the currency.

Reflected in finance, its gross profit margin has dropped sharply from 38.7% in 2022 to 25.9% in 2024, and its net profit growth has dropped from 35% to 7%, which has been inverted with store expansion and has fallen into the trap of increasing income but not increasing profits.

Laopu gold: a premium scepter for high-end direct sales

If Saturday Fu's rough sinking style is an "anomaly" in the jewelry industry, Laopu Gold's high-end direct sales model may be the most expensive gold retail orthodoxy.

From a layout point of view, Laopu Gold is positioned as a "five-star restaurant in the jewelry industry" to transform ancient craftsmanship into a luxury premium.All of its 36 direct-sales stores are in top shopping malls such as SKP and Hang Lung, with an average store efficiency exceeding 200 million yuan. A single store in Beijing has a daily sales of one million.The symbiotic relationship between high-end shopping malls and luxury stores is that shopping malls provide high-net-worth customers, and brands use high customer orders to feed back shopping malls profits, forming a closed loop.Although the number of stores is only 0.8% of that on Saturday Fook, the revenue from a single store is 141 times that, and the growth rate of net profit in 2024 will reach 254%, confirming the explosive power of the "few but better" path.

In terms of pricing, all products of Laopu Gold have completely stripped away the commodity attributes of gold: a "one-price" strategy (the bracelet is priced at 18888 yuan instead of priced by gram) is adopted to embed cultural narrative into the design. This strategy has two benefits: First, because the price of gold has almost no impact on commodity prices; second, the brand's gross profit margin has increased and remains at a high level of 41% for a long time.

The logic of capital voting with its feet

The capital market's judgment on both has long gone beyond short-term performance and directly points to the sustainability of business models.Laopu Gold's valuation of 94.87 times PE is recognition of its "cultural premium + scarcity point" barrier.

The discount of 13 times PE in Zhoufu June implies three major doubts:

First, surprise dividends expose governance flaws.2023-2024 The cumulative annual dividend was 1.394 billion yuan (accounting for 85% of net profit). The actual controller Li Weizhu brothers shared more than 1.3 billion yuan, but used 30% of the raised amount to repay debts, accusing them of "hollowing out cash."

Second, equity is highly concentrated (the Li brothers hold 83.4%), weakening the voice of minority shareholders.

Third, online growth cannot offset model flaws.Although online sales accounted for 40%(compound growth rate of 46.1%), low-margin products lowered overall profits, and competition with franchisees for profits caused channel conflicts. Shandong franchisees once complained that "online prices are lower than purchase prices, and offline cannot survive."InvalidParameterValue

In today's era of reduced consumption, the gold and jewelry industry is undergoing cruel differentiation.The high-end path represented by Laopu Gold accurately conforms to the consumer psychology of "buy less but buy better" and binds high-net-worth people through craftsmanship and culture; while Saturday Fu's mass franchise model gradually loses ground in price transparency and homogenization competition.

Light assets were once the lever for Fu's rise on Saturday, but they eventually became the shackle of its capital value.Marketing strategy, channel construction-these are all shortcomings that Saturday Fu, which relies on the franchise model, currently needs to make up for.