From the perspective of global money markets, gold's strong performance is not limited to dollar pricing.
At the beginning of 2025, continued inflationary pressures, growing economic uncertainty and rising government debt are jointly pushing gold prices towards key resistance levels above $2700 per ounce.
Although the gold market has recently shown strong upward momentum, market analysts generally believe that precious metals still need to overcome a two-month consolidation period to achieve further breakthroughs.It is worth noting that with U.S. President-elect Trump about to take office, the market expects that gold may face certain challenges in the short term.The trade tariff policy proposed by Trump during his campaign was aimed at supporting the development of U.S. manufacturing, a tough stance that supported the strong performance of the dollar to a certain extent.However, his remarks also sparked market concerns about rising inflation and the possible damage to the global economy due to the trade war.
Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, pointed out that the key resistance level for gold in the short term may be around $2725 per ounce.He emphasized that until the market has a clearer understanding of Trump's policies and their impact on the US dollar, US bond yields and interest rate cuts expectations, it will be difficult for gold prices to effectively break through this resistance level.In addition, the impact of tariff and fiscal expenditure policies on economic growth and fiscal debt will also become the focus of market attention.
At the same time, James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, believes that Trump is unlikely to take measures to limit spending or balance the budget after taking office.This loose expectation of fiscal policy has caused investors to worry about the risk of devaluation of legal currencies, thus promoting the increasing attention of the gold market.Stanley further pointed out that this is one of the reasons why Bitcoin has risen sharply in the past week.Although he is optimistic about the short-term trend of gold, he does not recommend chasing highs at current price levels, preferring to buy on dips and see whether $2,700 per ounce can become an effective support level.
From the perspective of global money markets, gold's strong performance is not limited to dollar pricing.Jesse Colombo, an independent precious metals analyst and founder of Bubble Report, believes that gold's rise relative to other currencies may be a prelude to a bigger market in the future.He predicted that gold could break past the historical high of $2,800 per ounce in the short term and regarded $3,000 per ounce as an important long-term resistance level.Colombo pointed out that if Trump promotes his tariff policies to trigger a trade war, the global economy will face the risk of stagflation, which will further consolidate gold's safe-haven status.
Despite the strong bullish sentiment on gold, some analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of current price levels.David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, pointed out that gold has experienced short-term price declines of 5% at similar prices.He believes that the rebound in gold mainly occurred after the Federal Reserve's "hawkish interest rate cuts", and the strength of the dollar did not effectively suppress the price of gold.This market performance suggests that the correlation between gold and the dollar is not always stable.
Carsten Fritsch, precious metals analyst at Commerzbank, believes that if the dollar rebounds from current support, gold may face some pressure this week.He pointed out that although the rise in U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields has not put significant pressure on gold prices, this asymmetric market response is often difficult to maintain in the long run.Fritsch stressed that keeping gold prices high requires further interest rate cuts expectations, a weakening of the US dollar and a further decline in US bond yields.
Overall, the future trend of the gold market will be affected by multiple factors.On the one hand, the continued rise in inflation expectations, global economic uncertainty and intensified geopolitical risks will continue to provide strong support for gold.On the other hand, the trend of the US dollar, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the implementation effect of Trump's policy will have a significant impact on the short-term fluctuations in gold prices.
