On March 11, late trading in New York, the precious metals market ended in an unexpected agitation.Spot gold rebounded strongly after hitting an intraday low of US$2,880.46, and finally closed up 0.93% to US$2,915.67/ounce. COMEX gold futures simultaneously climbed 0.82% to US$2,923.30. Silver showed its volatility charm with an increase of more than 2.6%.Behind this turbulent upward trend reflects the market's multi-dimensional game on geopolitical risks, monetary policy and the threat of stagflation. The gold price curve is not only a fluctuation in metal prices, but also a thermometer of global economic anxiety.

The core logic driving this round of markets lies in the resonance between geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations.The Trump administration's decision to postpone tariff increases on Mexico and Canada seems to be easing, but it actually exacerbates the uncertainty of repeated policies.The threat of sanctions against Russia, coupled with the continued tension in Ukraine, has caused the need for hedging to be repeatedly compressed like a spring and then suddenly released.At the same time, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data unexpectedly weakened in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, exposing the potential for economic recovery to weaken.This combination of "weak data + strong policy disturbance" forces investors to look to non-credit assets such as gold to hedge against possible black swan events.Goldman Sachs bluntly stated in its latest report that if the geopolitical conflict escalates and causes the market uncertainty index to exceed the threshold, it may hit a historical high of $3300 during the golden year.

Technical analysis reveals the micro battlefield of the long-short game.Some analysts said that at the daily level, gold's support level built at US$2880 withstood short pressure. Tuesday's long-positive line not only recovered the previous day's loss, but also formed a bullish pattern of "positive and negative".The current high resistance level near US$2930 has become a key watershed. If it can be effectively broken through, it may open a channel to the US$2,950 - 3,000 range.However, the 4-hour MACD indicator showed signs of peak divergence, suggesting that there may be correction pressure in the short term.This technical differentiation is just like a mirror image of market sentiment-both expectations for breaking new highs and hidden fears of the Federal Reserve's policy shift.

The gold reserve strategy of global central banks provides a long-term value anchor for the market.In 2024, global central bank gold purchases hit a historical peak of 4974 tons. China's central bank has increased its holdings for four consecutive months. In February, gold reserves reached 2,289.53 tons.This structural change in demand reshapes the logic of gold pricing: when traditional investment demand (jewelry, industry) fluctuates, the "demand floor" formed by central bank purchases of gold is buffering downward pressure on prices.The World Gold Council predicts that central bank gold purchase demand may exceed 70 tons per month in 2025. If this trend continues, this alone will provide rigid demand support for gold prices of approximately 840 tons per year, equivalent to the current global mineral gold volume. One.This adjustment of strategic reserves in the process of "de-dollarization" has gradually transformed gold from a purely safe-haven asset to a witness to the restructuring of the international monetary system.

Subtle changes in the Fed's policy expectations are reshaping the pace of short-term fluctuations in gold.Markets 'attention to the FOMC meeting on March 20 has become almost paranoid-although the probability that interest rates will remain unchanged is as high as 96.74%, weak non-agricultural data and upcoming CPI data (expected to be 3.1% year-on-year) may force the Fed to release a clearer easing signal.This difference in expectations has given rise to a unique market psychology: if inflation data falls beyond expectations, expectations of interest rate cuts may be strengthened to benefit gold prices; if inflation stickiness persists, gold may also be supported through the downward path of real interest rates.This "good luck" characteristic allows gold to show special allocation value during periods of ambiguity in monetary policy.

What deserves more vigilance is the emergence of the ghost of stagflation.The U.S. ADP employment growth narrowed to 151,000 in February, and the manufacturing PMI was below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months, but the core PCE price index remained stubbornly high at 3.2%.This combination of "economic stall + difficult inflation" is putting the stagflation script of the 1970s back on the stage.Historical data shows that during the two typical stagflation periods of 1973-1974 and 1978-1980, the annualized yields of gold reached 72% and 35% respectively, far exceeding stocks, bonds and other assets.In the current market environment, gold's anti-stagflation property may be re-priced. Especially when tariff policies push up import costs and geographical conflicts intensify the energy crisis, its monetary property as the "ultimate means of payment" will be highlighted again.

It is worth noting that the behavioral divergence of market participants reveals the complexity of gold investment.Retail investors have accelerated their deployment through gold ETFs. Gold ETFs alone have had a net inflow of 1.688 billion yuan in the past 6 days, indicating that risk aversion has spread to public investors; while institutional investors are more inclined to engage in long-short games through the futures market. COMEX gold open interest contracts increased by 12% compared with the beginning of the year, and the volatility surface of the options market showed a clear bullish tilt.This multi-level market structure makes gold prices driven by macro narratives and unable to escape the disturbance of short-term capital flows.For ordinary investors, in the key technical range of $2,920 - 2,950, we need to be vigilant about the risk of event-driven pullbacks-if the geopolitical situation unexpectedly eases or the Federal Reserve sends hawkish signals, it may trigger a concentrated take of profit in programmatic transactions.