[U.S. stocks before the market] AI capital expenditure continues bullish momentum, interest rate differences and government shutdown become variables (2025.09.23)

Conclusion First, after Taiwan stocks and U.S. stocks hit highs, the sentiment turned positive but entered the wait-and-see trend. The pre-market focus was on the AI capital expenditure cycle triggered by Nvidia's large investment in OpenAI, the differences among Federal Reserve officials on the interest rate path, and the political interference of the risk of a U.S. government shutdown. The resilience of technology-valued stocks and the moderate performance of international stock markets provide support. However, before important policies and capital costs are unclear, the market has limited tolerance for high shocks.

The index entered consolidation after reaching a high. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed again at intraday and closing highs early on Tuesday morning in Taiwan time. Technology stocks led the gains unchanged, driving the continuation of risk appetite. Asia-Pacific stock markets were divided in early trading on Tuesday, with Taiwan's weighted index continuing to hit a record high, reflecting that AI and electronic weighting groups are still strong in capital momentum, but other markets in the region are leaning on the sidelines, indicating that they are still cautious about subsequent policies and data.

AI capital expenditure has become the main line before the market. Huida announced an investment of up to US$100 billion in OpenAI. The market interprets it as a mutually beneficial long-term cooperation between supply and demand. OpenAI plans to use Viida's AI system to build a data center. The power demand of a single park is estimated to reach 10GW, corresponding to approximately 4 million to 5 million GPUs. After completing the first 1GW system, Viida received its first US$10 billion investment. The "positive cycle" concept of returning funds to the hardware supply chain enhances the medium-to long-term visibility of AI servers, advanced packaging, heat dissipation and power infrastructure.

The dual bottlenecks of power supply and computing power are under review. The 10GW power configuration highlights the high requirements of the data center for power grid resilience and energy efficiency. It will also test the coordination speed of upstream chip production capacity, advanced packaging production lines and computer room infrastructure. Investors focus on chip supply rhythm, equipment delivery dates and cloud customer capital expenditure nodes. Any updates to production capacity or delivery schedules may affect the relative strength of semiconductor and data center-related stocks.

Apple's demand signal rebounded. Analysts observed that the first wave of demand for Apple's (AAPL) new iPhone was better than the previous generation, driving the stock price to rise 4.3% on Monday and turn to a rise during the year. The price adjustment of the high-end iPhone 17 Pro also shows the direction of product portfolio upgrades, adding to the overall atmosphere of large technology stocks. At the same time, AI beneficiary stocks such as Oracle(Oracle, ORCL) and Huida strengthened simultaneously, strengthening the supporting effect of the equity side of U.S. stocks.

Differences in interest rate signals have increased, and policy uncertainty has balanced risk appetite. Stephen Miran, a former financial official, pointed out on Monday that Trump's new administration's policy package supports the conditions for lower interest rates, but Alberto Musalem, president of the Federal Bank of St. Louis, said on the same day that "there is limited room for further easing." Driven by the lack of key data, the market's repricing of the interest rate curve before Tuesday's market time in Taiwan became conservative. Funds may continue to wait and see the talks of Federal Reserve officials and the upcoming inflation, employment and prosperity survey information.

The risk of a government shutdown is counting down, and the political marginal impact remains to be seen. If the two parties fail to pass interim appropriations before the end of September, the federal government will face a shutdown. Historical experience shows that short-term lockdowns have a limited impact on the stock market, but may disrupt statistical data release schedules, federal purchases and the suspension of some services. While the index reached a high level, the market showed a response that paid attention to this issue but did not chase the price, reflecting the dual consideration of fundamentals and liquidity.

Changes in immigration and talent policies have affected the technology supply chain. Trump's increase in H‑1B visa fees to US$100,000 has triggered a global competition to respond. Indian and China professionals going to the United States have responded differently. Huida and OpenAI stated that the United States needs the world's top talents, while analysts believe that other countries may take advantage of the situation to accept talent dividends. Pre-market markets were concerned about the potential impact of this move on Silicon Valley recruitment costs, project schedules and localized R & D strategies, especially the workforce structure and salary curves of AI and cloud services.

The international market signal is neutral and stable. Asia-Pacific stock markets are divided today, Taiwan stocks hit high, and U.S. stock market pre-market sentiment is being sewed by positive and negative messages. In terms of raw materials and exchange rates, the strength of the U.S. dollar and fluctuations in oil prices are still important factors affecting corporate profits. A strong U.S. dollar is detrimental to exporting groups, while rising oil prices may be transmitted to aviation and transportation. However, with the support of AI-themed funds, the relative resilience of growth stocks is still high, and the index is susceptible to macro changes in the short term.

The long-term landscape of the industry is still reshaping. India has announced an US$18 billion semiconductor national plan, which aims to establish a one-stop supply chain from design to manufacturing, testing and packaging. Experts pointed out that the current investment and talent pool are still not enough to support full implementation, but this move shows that the trend of re-regionalization of global supply chains continues. For U.S. stocks, changes in the medium-and long-term competition and cooperation framework may affect the pace of market development for equipment, IP and closed beta services.

Pre-market observation focuses on three places. Traders continue to pay attention to the direction and trading volume of the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures to interpret the opening tone; the second is the pre-market quotes and news flow of stocks related to large technology, AI supply chains and data centers; and the third is whether the trend of U.S. government bond yields and the latest conversations between Federal Reserve officials have released more or more promising messages than market expectations. Abnormal volume or surprise remarks at either end may amplify fluctuations in the early opening session.

Risks and opportunities coexist. The certainty of AI capital expenditures and the momentum of equity stocks have hedged the impact of interest rate uncertainty and political noise, but in the index high range, the market's tolerance for negative surprises declines. If there is no clear pricing signal from the policy and data from pre-market to the opening session in Taiwan time tonight, it is expected that funds will continue their structural preference for AI and large-scale technologies, while maintaining a high degree of sensitivity to interest rates and fiscal marginal risks. Overall, risk appetite still exists but the pace is slowing down, waiting for new macro or enterprise-side catalysis.