• For industry demand, achieving even half of this year's fourth-quarter levels in the first quarter of next year would be a positive outcome, Li said.
• The tapering of purchase tax incentives is expected to trigger significant front-loading of demand in the fourth quarter.

Nio founder, chairman, and CEO William Li anticipates growth pressures across China's electric vehicle (EV) sector in the first quarter of next year as a key national stimulus policy phase ebb.

Li shared this judgment during a small-group media briefing at the company's Shanghai headquarters on September 3, when asked:

If Nio achieves profitability in the fourth quarter this year, it will then face a seasonal slowdown in the first quarter of 2026. How many quarters do you anticipate this profitable trend might last?

This isn't just a challenge for one company -- all players will face significant pressure in the first quarter of next year, Li said, according to an interview transcript released today by local media outlet 21jingji.

With the decline of the vehicle purchase tax incentive, early release of demand will definitely occur toward year-end, Li said.

From an industry demand perspective, achieving even half of this year's fourth-quarter levels in the first quarter of next year would be a positive outcome, he added.

This pressure affects every company -- it's a shared industry challenge, Li said.

"If we're fortunate enough to save some orders for the first quarter of next year, we'll be in a better position," he said.