Market analysis美国昨日公布的 7 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数降至 50.1，创 2020 年以来新低，显示经济活动几近停滞。细项显示企业因应疲弱需求与高营运成本，持续裁减人力，使就业指数再次落入收缩区间，过去 5 个月中有 4 次出现此现象。与此同时，原物料价格指数却升至 2022 年 10 月以来高点，显示成本压力未退。此数据显示出经济增长疲弱但通膨未解的矛盾局势，加剧联准会的政策难度，促使美股早盘涨幅回吐转跌。另外，川普言论再度引发市场震荡，其在接受 CNBC 专访时宣布，最快将于一周内对半导体与药品进口加征关税，其中药品税率恐高达 250%。此举引发市场对全球供应链与企业成本的高度忧虑。此外，他点名摩根大通（JPM）与美国银行（BAC）基于政治立场拒绝其业务，并扬言将颁布惩罚性行政命令。川普同时质疑劳动市场数据真实性，并透露财长贝森特拒绝接任联准会主席一职，为未来货币政策路径再添不确定性。综合以上，美股除罗素 2000 逆势收红外，四大指数全数收黑，惟跌幅不大，仅费半跌逾 1%。类股方面，原物料成为资金避风港逆势走扬；公用事业受 Constellation Energy（CEG）财报不如预期下跌超过 3% 拖累而下跌；资讯科技表现居末半导体涨多拉回。Gartner（IT）因需求疲弱下修财测暴跌超过 27%。反观 Palantir（PLTR）受惠财报强劲而逆势大涨近 8%。盘后，超微（AMD）公布 25Q2 财报，营收与 AI 业务展望皆优于市场预期，预计全年营收将达数百亿美元。不过，公司指出新款 Instinct MI308 晶片尚未获得出口中国授权，未纳入 25Q3 财测，令市场对中国需求产生疑虑，股价盘后回落；美超微（SMCI）因竞争激烈，财报不及预期盘后大跌逾 15%。 

Quick view of financial report

Ultramicro's profits fell short of expectations, AI chip shipments were blocked, and the data center business became the focus of investors 'attention

AMD announced its second-quarter 2025 earnings report. Although revenue was better than expectations, earnings per share were slightly lower than forecast. Coupled with the growth of its data center division being lower than market expectations, its share price fell more than 6% after hours. AI chips were affected by U.S. export controls to China, and the interruption of shipments of MI308 chips resulted in a significant drop in revenue. Although the new MI350 chips are mass-produced ahead of schedule and adopted by major customers such as OpenAI, the market share gap with NVDA is still difficult to quickly make up. The recovery of AI revenue in the future and whether to lift the ban on China shipments will be key observation indicators.

• Profits were lower than expected but revenue exceeded
  第2季营收为76.9亿美元，高于预期的74.2亿美元；经调整每股盈余为48美分，略低于市场预估的49美分，主因为AI部门营收年减与毛利受压。

• Restrictions on AI chip exports impact revenue
  MI308晶片因美国出口禁令无法出货至中国，单季损失达8亿美元；全年估计将因此影响15亿美元营收，目前仍等待美国商务部审核出口许可。

• The flat performance of the data center raises market concerns
  资料中心营收为32亿美元，年增14%，略低于预期；与辉达同期资料中心业务年增73%形成鲜明对比，引发投资人对市占率疑虑。

• MI350 new chips are mass-produced ahead of schedule, market-grabbing machine
  超微表示其新AI晶片MI350具备与辉达GB200竞争力，并已获7家顶尖AI开发商采用，将于下半年加速出货、推动AI业务回温。

• Consumer and gaming sectors support overall growth
  Client与Gaming合计营收达36亿美元，年增69%；其中Client部门年增57%，Gaming营收则成长73%，主要来自Ryzen Zen 5与游戏主机定制晶片需求强劲。

Supermicro's earnings and financial forecasts fell short of expectations, and demand for AI servers cooled, its share price fell 15%

Micro (SMCI) announced that revenue and profit for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 were lower than market expectations and revised its future financial forecast, causing its share price to plummet 15.5% after hours. Although the demand for AI servers is still there, competitive pressure from large rivals such as Dell and HPE, coupled with the impact of U.S. tariffs on costs, has led to a slowdown in growth. The company's estimated revenue for fiscal year 2026 is US$3.3 billion, which is still higher than market expectations, but it has been significantly revised down compared with the target at the beginning of this year, indicating that growth momentum is facing challenges.

• Revenue and both profits are inaccurate
  第4季营收为57.6亿美元，低于预期的58.9亿美元；经调整后每股盈余为41美分，也低于市场预估的44美分，主因来自美国关税影响与市占流失。

• Gross profit and profits fell sharply
  净利为1.95亿美元，年减34%，每股净利由去年同期的46美分降至31美分；显示利润率受到成本上升与竞争加剧双重压力。

• Conservative financial forecasts cause disappointment
  第1季营收预测为60至70亿美元，每股盈余介于40至52美分，皆低于市场预估的66亿美元与59美分；2026财年营收预期为330亿美元，虽高于预期但低于公司先前2月预估的400亿美元。

• Market share is eroded by large rivals
  分析师指出，美超微面临来自戴尔 (DELL) 与慧与 (HPE) 的激烈竞争，两者凭借既有客户基础取得更多订单；该公司市占疑似遭侵蚀。

• Stock prices fluctuate sharply, valuations are under pressure
  虽然今年以来股价已上涨约88%，但此次失望财报与预测导致投资人情绪转变；分析师警告，AI热潮所带来的高预期，也放大任何成长放缓所带来的负面反应。

Snap's growth slows, revenue fails to meet expectations, advertising platform errors and intensified competition cause stock price to plummet

Snap (SNAP) announced its second-quarter 2025 earnings report, with revenue growth of only 8.7% year-on-year, the slowest growth rate in more than a year, and average revenue per user (ARPU) fell short of market expectations. Coupled with advertising system errors and market shifts to large competitors such as Meta and TikTok, its share price plunged more than 15% after hours. Although Snap continues to expand its Snapchat+ subscription service and launch new Sponsored Snaps advertising products, its overall growth momentum still faces challenges.

• Revenue and user performance are stable but not impressive
  营收为13.4亿美元，略低于预期的13.5亿美元；全球日活跃用户为4.69亿人，符合市场预期；但每用户平均营收仅2.87美元，低于预期的2.90美元。

• Advertising system errors drag down effectiveness
  公司坦言广告平台更新导致部分广告以过低价格成交，虽已修正错误，但短期内冲击营收成长；加上斋戒月与美国「微量免税条款」变动影响广告预算，进一步打击表现。

• Expansion in net loss and EBITDA fell short of expectations
  净损扩大至2.63亿美元，去年同期为2.49亿美元；经调整EBITDA仅4,100万美元，远低于市场预期的5,300万美元，显示获利能力仍弱。

• Third quarter financial forecast slightly better than expected
  公司预估第3季营收介于14.75亿至15.05亿美元，高于市场预期；日活预估将达4.76亿人，Snapchat+用户数已突破1,600万，年增42%。

• Intense competition and high expectations create pressure
  面对Meta、Reddit等同业缴出强劲财报，市场对Snap要求更高；分析师指出在AI广告浪潮下，Snap若无法有效改善投放效率与产品创新，恐难维持市场信心。

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

The U.S. service industry nearly stalled in July, as tariffs pushed up costs and deteriorating employment raised concerns about stagnant inflation

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the U.S. services PMI fell to 50.1 in July, lower than market expectations of 51.5, the lowest growth rate in a year and almost stagnant. New orders, employment and exports in the service industry have weakened simultaneously, indicating that the Trump administration's recent significant tariff increases have put significant pressure on business confidence and operating costs. As the average tariff rate rose to 18.3%, the highest since 1934, the economy faced the risk of "stagnant inflation" of slowing growth and rising prices, sparking differences between the market and the Federal Reserve on policy direction.

• Service industry momentum is weakening
  ISM非制造业PMI自6月的50.8降至50.1，低于预期，接近荣枯线；新订单降至50.3，出口订单5个月内第4度陷入萎缩。

• Employment indicators continue to deteriorate
  服务业就业指数下滑至46.4，创2025年3月以来新低，连续第4个月呈现收缩，呼应近期就业报告大幅下修26.8万人所揭示的劳动市场疲弱。

• Tariffs impact costs and confidence
  7月价格支付指数升至69.9，创2022年10月以来新高；川普政府宣布针对多国商品加征10%至41%不等的关税，使平均关税率达18.3%。

• Inflation and economic risks are both under pressure
  虽整体通膨暂时受旧库存缓冲，但家居与消费性商品价格开始明显上升；ISM数据显示服务业低通膨趋势恐逆转。

• Fed decision-making divisions intensify
  联准会上周按兵不动，维持利率于4.25%-4.50%；但Waller与Bowman两位理事持不同意见，主张应降息因应就业放缓，反映决策层对通膨与成长风险看法分歧。

Trump will nominate a Fed governor this week and consider replacing Powell as Fed chairman

U.S. President Trump said he would nominate a successor to Federal Reserve Commissioner Adriana Kugler this week, and revealed that the list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve chairman has been narrowed down to four, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has voluntarily withdrawn from consideration. This nomination will not only affect the composition of the Federal Reserve Board of Directors, but may also pave the way for Trump to deploy Powell's successor early. The market is highly concerned about whether Trump will change the direction of the Fed's monetary policy through this nomination and influence the 2026 chairman change in advance.

• Kugler leaves early to open a personnel window
  Fed理事Kugler将于本周五辞职，回到乔治城大学教职，川普表示将于周末前提出继任人选，该人选有可能延任为下任Fed主席，形成「先任理事、再接主席」的布局。

• Federal Reserve Chairman Candidate List Exposed
  川普透露主席候选人包含国家经济会议主任Kevin Hassett、前Fed理事Kevin Warsh与现任理事Christopher Waller等人，皆为鸽派人士，主张降息。

• Bauer is questioned about deviation of interest rate policy from commitment
  川普重申对鲍尔不满，并声称鲍尔曾保证「会维持低利率」；尽管目前尚未明确表示将提前撤换主席，但不排除以新任理事实质主导政策的可能性。

• Monetary policy and personnel independence receive attention
  市场与学界担忧Fed人事若过度政治化，将损及数据与决策的独立性。此前川普解雇就业统计局长，引发外界对政府数据可靠性的广泛疑虑。

• The Fed faces the dual challenges of economic slowdown and inflation
  最新7月就业报告疲软、通膨仍高，市场预期Fed将于9月再度降息；川普则批评此前利率未降决策为「政治操控」，借此加强干预正当性。

Trump doubts that employment data is "manipulated", firing BLS director raises concerns about the credibility of economic data

In his latest speech, U.S. President Trump accused the July employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of being "manipulated" and criticized the downgrade of recent employment data to "fabricate" in an attempt to weaken the aura of Republican performance. Trump also fired BLS Director Erika McEntarfer and said he would replace him with a professional candidate with a "new perspective." The move raised concerns about government interference in statistical data, and caused vigilance among the statistical community and the market about the credibility of the data.

• Trump and White House accuse false data
  川普与国家经济委员会主任Kevin Hassett均暗示BLS内部有「反川普人士」，刻意操弄数据打击政府声誉，并认为数据下修与过往选举「遭操控」类似。

• BLS director was sacked in surprise
  川普于上周五解雇BLS局长McEntarfer，白宫表示此举是为导入「更可信的统计改革」，但前BLS局长反驳此说法，强调数据是由技术专业团队产出，局长不会事先接触原始资料。

• Common revisions to employment data are politicized
  市场指出每月数据初值会根据企业回报时间延迟而调整，属正常程序，批评川普此举为「政治干预经济数据独立性」，重演2020选举后对选举结果质疑的情节。

• Academic circles and markets reacted cautiously
  经济学者与统计界警告，此举恐造成长期资料信任危机，甚至放大未来Fed决策难度；AEI经济政策主任表示，若未来川普也以类似方式干预联准会人事，「信任危机将乘以1,000倍」。

• The independence of government statistical agencies is challenged
  从BLS到Fed人事任命，川普近期举措均被视为对数据中立与政策决策独立性的重大考验，市场密切关注接下来人选与制度是否能维持专业性与可信度。

industry

Trump predicts a new tariff policy on chips to promote the return of semiconductor manufacturing to the United States

U.S. President Trump said in an exclusive interview with CNBC that a new round of tariff measures on semiconductors and chips will be announced as soon as next week, emphasizing his hope to promote chip manufacturing in the United States. Although no details were disclosed, the move may further aggravate trade tensions with Asian chip suppliers, especially Taiwan. Trump has recently signed an executive order to impose additional tariffs on goods from many countries. Taiwan's exports will apply a new 20% tax rate this week, although it is lower than the previously proposed 32% plan.

• New tariff plan is about to go on the road
  川普表示针对「半导体与晶片」的独立关税政策将在「下周或更早」公布，强调「我们要这些产品在美国制造」。

• Taiwan's supply chain faces impact
  全球最先进的晶片多由台湾制造，台积电（2330-TW）为苹果、辉达 (NVDA)、高通与超微 (AMD) 等主要供应商；台湾产品将适用新20%关税。

• Trade protectionism is heating up
  川普日前已针对多国产品加征关税，并预告药品进口税可能达250%；专访中更称「人民喜欢关税」，即便民调显示其支持率波动。

• AI and high-tech demand push the importance of chips
  随人工智慧与先进运算需求成长，半导体成为全球经济关键产业，此波政策可能改变供应链布局与跨国企业采购策略。

• Supply chain and inflation risks to be observed
  分析师指出，若加征关税导致进口成本上升，恐转嫁至消费端，引发通膨压力，加上与主要科技供应国关系紧张，需留意中长期冲击。