[Intraday Analysis of U.S. Stocks] Strong data pushed up yields and U.S. stocks fell for three consecutive days (2025.09.26)
Strong employment and GDP pushed up yields, U.S. stocks fell for three consecutive days, and funds shifted to raw materials such as lithium ore; technology stocks were divided. Intel reportedly negotiated investment with Apple, and IBM was driven by quantum themes to focus on inflation and retail earnings.
Strong data pushed up yields and U.S. stocks fell for three consecutive days.
Major U.S. stock indexes continued to retreat, and the market digested stronger-than-expected employment and GDP data. Expectations for interest rate cuts and cooling drove public bond yields higher and the US dollar strengthened. Under pressure from growth stocks, funds shifted to relative defense and raw materials. The performance of individual stocks was divided. Investors turned to the pace of inflation and corporate earnings reports that were about to be announced.
The four major indices have weakened simultaneously, and the weight of science and technology is under pressure.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was temporarily reported at 45,949.46, down 0.37%; the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was temporarily reported at 6,598.73, down 0.59%; the Nasdaq Composite Index was temporarily reported at 22,358.73, down 0.62%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was temporarily reported at 6,268.58, down 0.45%. The index fell for the third consecutive day, indicating that the evaluation correction pressure of AI themes rising multiple stocks and the discount pressure of interest rates rising are fermenting simultaneously.
Funding rotation highlights the strengthening of lithium mines and some hardware, and the weakening of cloud and consumption cycles.
Materials and mining were encouraged by policy themes, and the lithium mining community continued to rise; the semiconductor index retreated slightly, but some stocks rose against the trend; relatively, consumer recycling stocks such as cloud software and used cars were under pressure. On the market, Albemarle(ALB) rose 5.05%, Lithium Americas(LAC) continued to rise;Oracle(ORCL) fell; and CarMax(KMX) fell sharply. The large fluctuations in multiple targets are accompanied by significant volume, indicating that active funds are accelerating the adjustment of positions.
Surprisingly strong employment and GDP suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts.
The latest number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell to 218,000, better than market expectations; the annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised upwards to 3.8%, indicating that economic resilience remains. The combination of data pushed up real interest rates and nominal yield rates simultaneously. The market's pricing of subsequent interest rate cuts tends to be conservative, and the evaluation of risky assets faces rebalancing.
Higher bond yields and a stronger US dollar have exacerbated stock market corrections.
Ten-year U.S. bond yields rose, the U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro, pound and yen, and the tight financial environment put pressure on growth stocks with high P/E ratios. The VIX panic index rose intraday, reflecting rising volatility expectations; oil prices and gold prices fell, and major crypto assets generally fell; U.S. stock index futures weakened simultaneously, with consistent signals of cooling risk appetite.
Large technology stocks were mixed and weakened index momentum.
Nvidia(NVDA) rose 0.65% intraday, Apple(AAPL) rose 0.46%, Microsoft(MSFT) fell slightly 0.42%, Meta Platforms(Facebook parent company, META) fell 1.46%, Alphabet(GOOGL) fell 0.82%, Amazon.com(Amazon, AMZN) fell 0.63%, and Tesla(Tesla, TSLA) fell 3.48%. The performance of the seven bears was divided, and the weakness of the equity stocks limited the strength of the market's rebound.
Intel's share price soared after receiving investment incentives from Apple.
Intel(Intel, INTC) surged 6.98%. It was reported that it was negotiating with Apple(AAPL) about potential investment and deepening cooperation. The market focused on whether its OEM and advanced processes could be used to accelerate transformation and expand the ecosystem. Driven by the news, Apple rose slightly, but the scope of cooperation and the implementation Timeline of legal persons 'general concern still need to be further clarified. Evaluation and repair and improvement of fundamental capabilities require dual-track verification.
Progress in quantum computing applications has driven IBM higher.
International Business Machines(IBM) rose 4.92%, after partner HSBC Holdings said the two sides showed positive signs of the feasibility of quantum computing in bond trading forecasts. The prospect of commercial applications of quantum computing has driven corporate IT themes to warm up, but HSBC's ADR in the United States have fallen, indicating that financial stocks are still sensitive to interest rates and trading environment.
The negative evaluation of cloud leaders triggered a stock price correction.
Oracle(Oracle, ORCL) weakened mainly due to Rothschild Redburn's launch of a selling review and questioning the market's overpricing of cloud revenue growth. Rating changes amplify the sensitivity of cloud communities to consumer and corporate IT spending momentum, and short-term funds are turning to wait-and-see.
Slowing demand for used cars dragged CarMax down.
CarMax(KMX) fell 20.24%. Last quarter's profit fell short of expectations and sales fell. Management pointed out that the operating environment was challenging. Data shows that demand for durable goods is still weak in a high interest rate environment, and short-term fluctuations in consumer circular stocks have intensified.
The weakening of crypto assets dragged down related concept stocks.
MicroStrategy(MSTR) fell 7.75%, reflecting the linkage effect of falling prices for major crypto assets such as Bitcoin and cooling market risk appetite. Crypto-linked stock prices are highly sensitive to volatility and changes in funds, and short-term trading is mainly event-driven.
Driven by policies, the theme of lithium mining continues to be strong.
Lithium Americas(LAC) has continued to advance driven by market reports that the Trump administration has evaluated and invested in shares. Resource strategic upstream materials for electric vehicles have been favored by funds, driving Albemarle(ALB) to rise simultaneously. Although policies catalyze evaluations, we still need to pay attention to the uncertainty of commodity prices and project progress.
Inflation data and retail financial reports will become the next focus of observation.
The market focuses on the Fed's preferred inflation indicators and the guidance of large retailers 'financial reports on consumption momentum. Costco Wholesale(COST) expects the new quarterly report card to provide clues to the price power and customer flow of the bulk selling channel. Starbucks (SBUX) continues to streamline manpower and optimize store allocation. Under the tug of interest rates and evaluations, investors focus on fundamental verification and cash flow resilience in the short term.
Risk appetite has cooled but structural themes are still supportive.
The current interest rate trend and the strong US dollar suppress the evaluation of growth stocks, and index shocks are inevitable. However, structural themes driven by policy and technological progress, such as AI hardware upgrades, commercialization of quantum computing and raw materials for energy transformation, still provide a relative highlight for stock selection for the market. Overall, the macro environment with strong data is driving the market to reprice interest rate paths and corporate profit visibility.
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