[U.S. Stocks Pre-market] Interest rate cuts are expected to support high-end shocks, and inflation data becomes a short-term key (2025.09.10)

Conclusion comes first, high-end shocks wait for inflation verification,

U.S. stock futures were divided after major indices hit record highs, and the market's focus returned to the path of inflation and interest rates. The PPI released at 8:30 tonight in Taiwan became the key observation, and the CPI came on the next day. Together, the two provide final guidance before next week's Fed interest rate meeting. Before the market, individual stocks were led by Oracle(Oracle, ORCL)'s surge. AI demand pushed up the cloud business outlook. In the pharmaceutical industry, Novo Nordisk(Novo Nordisk, NVO)'s layoffs and downgrades also attracted attention. On the policy front, the court temporarily prevented Trump from sacking Federal Reserve Commissioner Cook. The independence of the Federal Reserve and tariff disputes also affected emotions.

Futures were divided, and sentiment turned to data verification after the high point.

S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose slightly, while Dow Jones futures fell slightly, reflecting investors moving into wait-and-see mode near historical highs. The yield on the 10-year U.S. bond was reported at 4.09%, still close to its low level since April, and the interest rate environment is relatively friendly. Gold prices are close to historical highs and continue to rise slightly. Oil prices have risen by about 1%, and the trend of energy and precious metals has shown moderate support. Bitcoin is close to US$112,400, and the risk asset atmosphere has not been significantly reduced.

Wholesale inflation was announced at night and was one of the last key puzzles before the Federal Reserve Conference.

The market estimates that the PPI will increase by 0.3% month-on-month in August, which is 0.9% lower than the previous value. If this happens as expected, it will alleviate concerns about cost pressure. The CPI released at 8:30 p.m. Taiwan time on Thursday is a more eye-catching observation point because it affects inflation in core services and interpretation of real interest rates. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged this year. Chairman Powell recently released information on the possibility of interest rate cuts. Interest rate futures show that the probability of interest rate cuts will increase in the next three meetings.

Employment data has been revised downward and expanded, and doubts about the momentum of the economy have grown.

The latest benchmark adjustment of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that non-agricultural employment increased by 911,000 less in the year before March 2025 than before, and the total reduction in the past 16 months is estimated to be approximately 1.2 million. Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said that economic momentum is weakening and although there is no final conclusion towards recession, the cost of capital and demand momentum of businesses and households are facing testing. The downward revision of employment has made the policy side more sensitive to labor market support.

AI demand has driven a surge in cloud business prospects, and Oracle has soared.

Oracle expects cloud infrastructure sales to reach US$18 billion this fiscal year, a year-on-year increase of 77%, which is higher than the growth guidance of more than 70% proposed in June this year. Newly signed large customers and pending orders will accelerate and expand its support outlook. The company's first fiscal quarter adjusted earnings per share was US$1.47, revenue was US$14.9 billion, and a year-on-year increase of 12%, both lower than market expectations. However, strong AI-related demand drove forward orders, and the stock price rose more than 30% before the market, driving the cloud and AI ecosystem. sentiment is warming up.

The growth of weight-loss drugs has slowed down, and Novo Nordisk has launched layoffs and downgrades to make profits.

Novo Nordisk announced that it would lay off 9,000 people, accounting for more than 10% of its employees, and recognized a one-time cost of DKr 8 billion. It adjusted its annual operating profit growth target from the previous 10% to 16%. After the company replaced its new CEO in August, it accelerated organizational adjustments in response to slowing growth and intensified competition in the weight management market. The ADRs of U.S. stocks rose slightly by about 1% before the market. Investors assessed the subsequent impact of production capacity, access and pricing strategies.

Concerns have been raised about the personnel and independence of the Federal Reserve, and the court has temporarily prevented Trump from firing Cook.

The U.S. District Court has ruled that President Trump is temporarily prohibited from firing Federal Reserve Commissioner Lisa Cook on the grounds that the Federal Reserve law limits the power to remove him for pre-term behavior. The case is expected to appeal to the Supreme Court, and the decision-making independence of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has once again become the focus. Policy uncertainty has increased during the interest rate decision window, and the market has become more sensitive to official speeches and meeting minutes.

Tariffs and geopolitical risks are heating up, and the Supreme Court accelerates its hearing of tariff cases,

The Supreme Court agreed to speed up the hearing of multiple appeals on tariff disputes that were found to be illegal, as trade policy trends affect corporate costs and supply chain arrangements. Another report pointed out that Trump urged the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on China and India to put pressure on the war between Russia and Ukraine. If it develops further, cross-regional supply chains and commodity flows may be adjusted, and the market will remain vigilant against exposed foreign trade positions in the short term.

The international stock market and raw materials were stable and more, and the linkage sentiment continued before the U.S. stock market.

After the three major U.S. stock indexes closed at record highs last night, in terms of Asian stocks, China's stock market strengthened due to the lower-than-expected CPI in August, while European stocks Stoxx600 rose slightly by 0.06%. The close proximity to high gold prices reflects the dual support of risk aversion and a fall in real interest rates. The rise in oil prices is relatively beneficial to energy stocks, but the pressure on transportation and chemical costs needs to be continuously observed. The US dollar interest rate curve has stabilized, and cross-asset volatility has not increased sharply.

Technology focus continues, and Apple's new product releases guide hardware attention,

Apple(Apple, AAPL) has released a new generation of iPhone product lines, including an increase in the price of high-end models and simultaneous launch of new AirPods Pro and Apple Watch. The topic of hardware cycles has heated up. Large-scale technology equity stocks account for a high index weight. Product iteration and AI application introduction have a amplifying effect on the flow of funds. The visibility of supply link orders and the subsequent performance of selling price strategies have attracted much attention.

Pre-market trading guidance, liquidity and volatility are concentrated in AI and pharmaceuticals,

Nasdaq 100 and S & P 500 futures rose slightly, while Dow Jones futures fell slightly. Technically, technology and cloud themes were relatively strong, and pharmaceutical biotechnology was affected by individual news. The focus of pre-market trading is on news stocks such as Oracle and Novo Nordisk. Investors pay attention to whether the volume and performance continue after the opening of the market, and observe the immediate impact of changes in the U.S. bond yield around 4.1% on the evaluation of growth stocks.

Risks and opportunities coexist, and the data falls at the left and right pace.

Supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, the index level is high and the fluctuations are not significantly amplified. The short-term rhythm depends on the placement and detailed structure of tonight's PPI and the next day's CPI. If wholesale and consumer inflation cool down simultaneously, the market will be more confident of policy easing; if service inflation stickiness remains or energy drives up the monthly growth rate, the high-end shock range may be extended. Structurally, AI cloud momentum goes hand in hand with pharmaceutical adjustments, and policy and tariff uncertainty continue to become important variables in assessing risk premiums.