[U.S. Stocks Pre-market] Futures Index Higher Focus on CPI, Technology led the gains, but policy and interest rate risks coexist (2025.10.24)

Futures index rises, focusing on inflation, CPI becomes the biggest variable in the day

U.S. stock futures were more pre-market, with S & P 500 futures up about 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures up about 0.5%, and Dow Jones futures up about 0.2%. Continuing the rebound of U.S. stocks on Thursday, the main index is expected to close red for the second consecutive week. There were differences on the asset side, with gold prices falling back by about 1.6%, Bitcoin recovering from overnight lows, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising, indicating that risk appetite has rebounded but interest rate pressure remains. The pre-market focus returned to the dual themes of inflation and earnings. The seesaw of stronger technology and rising interest rates affected the opening rhythm.

Inflation data is revised upwards, and the Fed path is enlarged

The September consumer price index CPI, which was affected by the delay in the U.S. government shutdown, was released at 8:30 tonight in Taiwan time. The market expects a monthly increase of 0.4% and an annual increase of 3.1%, which is higher than the previous month and the highest since May 2024. Tariff pressure is seen as an important factor in pushing up prices. The scarcity of data amplifies the message contained in a single report in the market, and deviations from expectations may trigger simultaneous fluctuations in interest rates and stock indexes. Before the Fed's decision-making meeting next week, expectations for interest rate cuts will be driven by this data, and the pricing of interest rate endpoints and rate cuts may be rapidly re-evaluated.

As trade uncertainty rises, Trump announces termination of negotiations with Canada

Trade relations between the United States and Canada have become more uncertain. Trump said he was dissatisfied with the content of Ontario's advertisements broadcast in the United States, terminated trade negotiations with Canada and reiterated the importance of tariffs to U.S. security and economy. The move came after a number of tariff proposals had been put forward, and also brought more attention to the follow-up negotiations on the US-Mexico-Canada agreement before the July 2026 deadline. If tariff risks heat up, cross-border costs in the automobile, steel, aluminum and agricultural product supply chains may rise, making market sentiment more sensitive to the news.

More overseas stock markets drive sentiment, while Asian and European stock markets strengthen simultaneously

U.S. stocks rebounded on Thursday, led by technology stocks, and Nasdaq outperformed the broader market. Asian stocks continued to be strong on Friday, with South Korea's Kospi hitting a new high, Japan's Nikkei index rising despite core inflation being in line with expectations, and Europe's Stoxx 600 was also high in early trading and was boosted by the positive earnings reports of a few large consumer stocks. The overseas atmosphere will help U.S. stocks 'willingness to take risks before the opening bell, but the market still uses evening inflation data as the main pricing basis.

Rising interest rates and falling gold prices, asset pricing shows intersecting signals

The upward trend in U.S. bond yields has pushed up the sensitivity of financing costs, constraining assets with high price-to-earnings ratios. At the same time, the decline in gold prices reflects the pressure of cooling safe-haven demand and rising real interest rates. If the CPI is higher than expected, the upside risk on the interest rate side may suppress the intraday evaluation multiple; on the contrary, if the data is in line with expectations or soft, funds may continue to favor growth and technology equity stocks. Short-term assets are highly correlated, and yield rates and US dollar movements remain the core of trading.

Intel turned around and optimistic guidance, and technology sentiment gained significant points

Intel(Intel, INTC) surged sharply before the market. The company turned from loss to profit in the third quarter, with revenue better than expectations and released an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter. The chief financial officer pointed out that specific actions have been taken to strengthen the balance sheet, and the company estimates revenue for the quarter to be between US$12.8 billion and US$13.8 billion, better than the market consensus. Intel's share price has risen since the beginning of the year, and the market has also paid attention to the impact of the U.S. government's approximately 10% stake in August this year on corporate governance and accounting treatment. Improved financial reports and signals of recovery in supply and demand provided support for semiconductor and large technology stocks today.

Ford's earnings exceeded expectations but revised its EBIT outlook, and the auto chain focused on cost and tariff risks

Ford Motor(F) rose before the market after the company reported both revenue and adjusted EPS that beat Wall Street estimates. However, Ford also revised its full-year adjusted EBIT outlook, mainly due to the possible cost impact of factory fires of US$1.5 billion to US$2 billion. Although the single-season's fitness was better than expected, the cost and pricing capabilities of the North American automobile supply chain will continue to be reviewed against the background of rising uncertainty in U.S. -Canada trade, and intraday volatility may be high.

Policies and geopolitical signals are intertwined, encryption and Sino-US interactions are included in observation

The White House announced an amnesty for Zhao Changpeng, founder of the cryptocurrency exchange. Policy signals affected investors 'interpretation of cryptocurrency asset regulation and industry prospects, and Bitcoin rebounded from a pre-market low. On the other hand, after the Fourth Plenary Session, the mainland released a policy direction emphasizing domestic demand and technological self-reliance, and released a conciliatory tone before the Sichuan Xi Conference. Progress in trade and technology controls has affected the evaluation of transnational technology and manufacturing stocks. Policy and geographical interactions have added exogenous variables to today's market.

Key pre-market observation: the three-line intersection of data interest rates and financial reports

The core of today's transaction revolves around three main lines. First, the immediate impact of CPI announcement and detailed components on U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar; second, the relative strength of the technology and automobile chains driven by Intel and Ford, and whether the signal of recovery in semiconductor supply and demand will spread to the overall hardware and cloud supply chains; third, whether the White House's tariff and policy messages on Canada will last. If the overall risk appetite remains, the index is expected to continue Thursday's rally at the beginning, but fluctuations may amplify before and after the data is released. Investors should prioritize risk control and event-driven.