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Fed's megaphone: Today's CPI report will not change the direction of Fed policy

According to online reports, Nick Timiraos, the "Fed's mouthpiece", recently wrote: "June's inflation data may keep Fed officials cautious. Policy makers who had predicted that tariffs would trigger more significant price pressures later this year may not have much reason to change this view after seeing the June data-especially if retailers delay price adjustments as much as possible. June data will only make upcoming July and August data more important. Similarly, policymakers who believe that tariffs will not trigger significant inflation (because companies are not able to price enough to support higher inflation) have little reason to change their views after seeing Tuesday's report." In recent weeks, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has said that the threshold for the Fed to cut interest rates may be slightly lower than in the spring. The shift reflects an assessment that inflation risks may take longer to emerge, so the impact will be relatively weak. If the Fed maintains its expectation that "inflation acceleration will not be too severe," Powell may open the door to interest rate cuts as early as September based on conditions such as a weakening labor market or improving inflation data."

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