Market analysis美国劳工部公布初领失业金人数升至 23.5 万人，高于前值 22.4 万人，然标普全球制造业 PMI 自 49.8 回升至 53.3，服务业 PMI 达 55.4，均优于市场预期，带动市场信心回暖，指数跌幅一度收敛。但报告同时指出，关税推升价格指数至 2022 年以来高点，且克里夫兰联准银行总裁 Hammack 发表鹰派言论，令市场忧心 Fed 主席鲍尔在 Jackson Hole 不会释出明确降息讯号，避险需求推升 VIX 大涨 5.8%，最终美股主要指数小幅收低，仅罗素 2000 微幅收红。类股方面，必需型消费跌幅最大，沃尔玛(WMT)毛利与获利表现未达市场预期，为三年来首度财报失利，使得股价单日下跌近 4.5%，拖累好市多(COST)、Target(TGT)联袂收黑；资讯科技承压，市场等待辉达(NVDA)财报及鲍尔演说；干净能源则受政治风向打击，川普批评风能与太阳能是世纪骗局，First Solar(FSLR)、Enphase 同步走弱。反观能源股逆势上攻，主因油价持续走高与政策偏向传统能源的支撑。油服公司如 Schlumberger(SLB)、Baker Hughes(BKR)、Halliburton(HAL)普遍上涨，整合型油商雪佛龙(CVX)、埃克森美孚(XOM)亦表现强势。

 

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Wal-Mart raised its full-year financial forecast, as e-commerce and high-income customers supported sales, but profit pressure dragged down its stock price

Despite tariff pressure and rising costs, Wal-Mart (WMT) showed consumer resilience and e-commerce growth momentum in the second quarter. American consumers, especially high-income groups, continue to visit Wal-Mart, coupled with a 25% year-on-year increase in online sales, boosting overall revenue. However, gross profit and profit performance fell short of market expectations, marking the first financial loss in three years, causing the stock price to fall by 4% in a single day. Although Wal-Mart has raised its full-year revenue and earnings outlook, the increase in inventory costs and price adjustment strategies caused by tariffs have become the focus of market attention.

• Financial forecast increased but profit fell short of target
  沃尔玛第二季营收达1,774亿美元，高于市场预期的1,761亿美元，但调整后每股盈余为0.68美元，低于预期的0.74美元，为2022年5月以来首度获利未达标。

• E-commerce and advertising businesses drive growth
  全球电商销售年增25%，其中美国本地配送成长近50%；广告业务整体成长46%，美国本地成长31%，展现多元收入来源已成气候。

• High-income groups drive visitors and unit prices
  客户交易数年增1.5%、平均消费金额成长3.1%。高收入家庭对价格调整敏感度较低，反映中低收入族群更明显调整购买行为。

• Tariff costs are gradually reflected and price strategies are adjusted
  关税推升库存补货成本，执行长表示未来仍将上涨。部分品项吸收成本，部分已调涨售价，并加速进口与增加「Rollbacks」折扣数量。

• Demonstrate resilience in competitive situations
  相较于对手Target表现低迷，沃尔玛凭借更灵活的品牌与商品策略持续吸引顾客，并透过私有品牌与快时尚商品重振非食品类销售。

 

Workday's earnings beat expectations and acquired AI startup Paradox, but pressure on the public and education markets caused its share price to fall

Workday (WDAY), a provider of cloud ERP and human resources systems, exceeded market expectations, with revenue and earnings per share both better than forecasts, but its outlook for the third quarter and the full year was only in line with expectations. In addition, customers in the education and government sectors were affected by policies and financial pressures, causing the company's share price to fall nearly 4% after hours. Workday also announced the acquisition of AI talent recruitment and new Paradox to strengthen its AI-driven human resources solution capabilities, showing that the company continues to deepen its AI layout to maintain competitiveness.

• Financial results exceeded expectations but market response was conservative
  第二季营收达23.5亿美元，年增13%，高于预期的23.4亿美元；每股盈余为2.21美元，优于预估的2.11美元。然而第三季与全年营收预测仅符合分析师预期，导致股价盘后下跌近4%。

• Uncertainty in government and education markets rises
  执行长指出，美国地方政府因预算缩减趋缓采购脚步，而特朗普政府关闭教育部的行政命令也影响高教客户支出，未来仍需密切观察资金流动与政策变化对营运的影响。

• Acquisition of Paradox to expand AI talent solutions
  Workday宣布收购AI人才招募平台Paradox，补强自家在自动化履历筛选、面试排程与入职流程的能力，加速AI在企业人资端的落地应用。

• AI products continue to expand enterprise functions
  除了Paradox，Workday也推出可自动撷取会计资讯与请假纪录的AI Agent，显示其将AI技术深度整合至财务与人力资源管理流程中。

• Competition is fierce but maintaining market leadership
  面对Oracle、SAP、ADP等对手竞争，Workday透过技术布局与企业客户如Visa与FedEx的稳固基础维持领先地位，未来能否转化AI投入为实质营收仍是观察重点。

 

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general manager Daryl

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will announce a new monetary policy framework at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, raising market concerns about volatility

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver his last speech at the 2025 Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting to reveal a new version of the monetary policy framework. As inflation and the job market shift, Ball will try to balance price stability with job support and defend the Fed's policy independence. Investors are highly concerned about its hints on the timing and size of interest rate cuts, but are also concerned that political pressure and sluggish summer trading volumes may amplify market volatility.

• The new policy framework will reiterate the priority of price stabilization
  鲍尔预计将调整2020年疫情期间推出的「包容性就业导向」策略，强调稳定通膨为实现长期就业成长的前提，意味未来将重回更传统的通膨目标优先路线。

• Interest rate cuts are expected to be high but uncertainty remains
  市场预期鲍尔将释出9月开始降息的讯号，全年预估降息两次、各25个基点，但通膨数据强劲与关税影响仍让Fed保持审慎，市场解读空间大。

• Rising political pressure impacts central bank independence
  川普政府持续施压Fed降息，并公开要求官员辞职，加剧市场对央行政策独立性的疑虑，投资人也预期鲍尔将借此机会捍卫其政策自主性。

• Contradictions between employment and inflation data make decision-making more difficult
  劳动市场数据疲软与生产者物价高涨形成矛盾，使鲍尔面临政策「走钢索」情境，任何偏鹰或偏鸽立场都可能引发市场剧烈波动。

• Seasonal low liquidity may amplify market reaction
  八月市场交易清淡，任何超预期的政策讯号都可能引发股债市剧烈波动，投资人与资产管理机构建议投资者为「高波动周末」做好准备。

 

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Meta and Google reach a cloud partnership of more than US$10 billion to accelerate the expansion of AI data centers

Meta (META) and Google (GOOGL) have signed a cloud services agreement worth more than US$10 billion covering server, storage, network and infrastructure support to provide key support for Meta's large-scale AI data center. This move not only strengthens Meta's hardware layout in the generative AI competition, but also symbolizes an important breakthrough for Google's cloud business in the high-end AI demand market.

• The scale of tens of billions of dollars highlights investment in AI infrastructure
  Meta计划投入数千亿美元于AI资料中心，此次与Google云端的合作将大幅补强其基础设施能力，并减轻自建压力，具策略性转向。

• Accelerate the expansion of AI computing capabilities
  透过Google Cloud的高效能运算与储存资源，Meta得以因应日益成长的AI模型训练与推论需求，提升开发效率与营运弹性。

• Diversify risk and capital expenditure pressure
  Meta近期已揭露寻求出售20亿美元资料中心资产，透过外部合作将AI建设转向「轻资产」策略，控制成本并提高财务灵活度。

• Google Cloud welcomes important AI customers
  继OpenAI后，Meta成为另一家大型AI玩家采用Google Cloud，进一步巩固其于AI基础设施市场的竞争地位。

• The trend of cloud and AI integration is clear
  AI巨头纷纷转向云端巨擘寻求支援，反映当前生成式AI竞争进入硬体基础设施决胜阶段，云端平台成为核心竞争资源。