[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Futures are weak, and the dual uncertainties of the White House, the Federal Reserve Commission and China policy are rising (2025.08.26)

Futures are weak and policy uncertainty rises

U.S. stock futures fell slightly in early trading in Taiwan on Tuesday as the market simultaneously digested Trump's pressure on the ECB and the threat of tariffs against China. Dow Jones futures fell by about 0.1%, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq futures weakened simultaneously, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose slightly to about 4.3%, oil prices fell nearly 2%, easing inflationary pressure, gold prices did not change much, Bitcoin fell by about US$110,000. The overall risk sentiment has become more cautious, with pre-market trading focusing on policies and individual stock events driven.

Pressure on the White House intensifies, concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve

Trump in Taiwan said on Tuesday that he had dismissed Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, citing mortgage-related charges, a move that deepened market doubts about decision-making independence. Cook's term of office originally runs until 2038. If there are legal offenses and personnel renominations, the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee and the visibility of the interest rate path may decline in the short term. Investors are concerned about whether the uncertainty of interest rate declines and pace disturbs evaluations and financial conditions.

Tariff threat resurfaces, rare earth magnets become the focus of supply chain

Trump also warned that if Beijing restricts exports of rare earth magnets to the United States, it will impose a 200% tariff on China. Supply chain sensitive groups include electric vehicles, wind power, defense and high-end electronic components. The US-China trade moratorium was extended to November at the beginning of the month, during which China relaxed some rare earth controls and the United States relaxed some restrictions on the sale of U.S. chips. The latest talks have added to the previous signs of easing. The market is mindful of the marginal impact of China's policy response and replacement supply progress on industrial and technology stocks.

Digital services tax and chip exports, cross-border policy risks spread

In addition to tariffs on China, Trump said he would impose "significant" new tariffs on countries that impose digital services taxes and restrict chip exports to those markets. Cross-border cloud, advertising and semiconductor supply chains involve increased complexity in multinational operations and tax systems. Compliance costs and tariff burdens may erode gross profit margins and make capital expenditure and capacity allocation decisions more difficult. The guidance and user momentum of large-scale scientific and technological network and design/IP providers have become the focus of follow-up tracking.

Extension of national shareholding framework, spillover effects of Intel transactions

Another route of policy is government ownership of private enterprises. White House previously owned about 10% of Intel(Intel, INTC), and Trump's economic advisers released that there may be more transactions in semiconductor or other industries in the future, even towards the concept of sovereign funds. In the document, Intel warned that such agreements may trigger negative reactions from investors, customers and foreign governments. The market also recalled China's previous call on local companies to reduce the use of Nvidia(NVDA) and consumers 'political association risks with Tesla(TSLA). The business model with deep policy involvement and the discount rate assumption have become new variables in evaluation.

Changes in index weights, Interactive Brokers benefits from inclusion in S & P

Interactive Brokers Group(IBKR) was up about 4% in pre-market trading after S & P Dow Jones Indices announced that it will replace the Walgreens Boots Alliance(WBA) in the S & P 500 this week, which is expected to take effect on Friday, Taiwan time. WBA had previously agreed to be privatized by Sycamore Partners, and a Nasdaq update showed its last trading day was Thursday, Taiwan time. Interactive Brokers Securities has increased by more than 40% year-to-date, and the inclusion of ingredients in the news has increased the attention of passive funds.

Spectrum trading boosts, EchoStar surges to ease regulatory pressure

EchoStar(SATS) surged about 60% in the market. The company sold spectrum to AT&T(American Telephone and Telegraph (T) for US$23 billion and exposed cooperation in hybrid mobile network operations. The transaction is seen as a response to the Federal Communications Commission's review of its spectrum licensing obligations, helping alleviate compliance pressures and capital burdens, while creating flexibility for network deployment of DISH TV and Boost Mobile services. Telecommunications and satellite communications stocks are subject to event-based reactions, and the financial and regulatory structures for asset realization and network sharing are subject to market discussions.

U.S. stock momentum weakens, AI financial reports and supply chain context remain the main line

On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indexes retracted some of last Friday's gains. Technology equity stocks performed differently. This week's focus is on Huida's earnings report and the AI supply chain extension effect. Legal persons focus on the shipment pace and order visibility of sub-groups other than GPUs, including Netcom, server OEM, EDA/IP and high-frequency memory. As policy noise heats up, the premium between fundamental quality and cash flow resilience determines capital rotation.

Yield rates rise, oil price retracts cushion inflation

The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose slightly to about 4.3%, reflecting the market's reassessment of the interest rate outlook and policy uncertainty premiums. The nearly 2% drop in international oil prices provides a respite on the cost side, which is relatively favorable to aviation and transportation cost pressures, but it also puts pressure on energy stocks in the short term. The limited movement in gold prices indicates that risk aversion is not yet extreme, and the correlation between stocks, bonds and commodities remains highly sensitive until policy signals are unclear.

International stock markets are soft, and cross-regional risk sentiments are intertwined

Asian stock markets generally fell lower on Tuesday in Taiwan time. European stocks Stoxx 600 closed down 0.44% in the previous trading day. Global risky assets retreated simultaneously amid dual uncertainties in policy and interest rates. The impact of US dollar movements and fund reallocation on the evaluation of companies with high export and international exposure has intensified, and the opening sentiment of U.S. stocks has been affected by external factors.

There are too many data empty windows, and the market looks more at headlines and individual stock events

Today's important macro data is relatively limited, and the market's responsiveness to policy headlines, regulatory developments and index weight adjustments has increased. Investors pay attention to Huida's earnings report on Thursday in Taiwan time and management's account of AI demand, supply bottlenecks and gross profit trends, and simultaneously observe whether the subsequent interaction between the White House and the Federal Reserve will disturb the expected interest rate cut curve. Short-term trading may be event-driven, with volume concentrated in telecommunications, brokerage and semiconductor chains affected by the news.

Commodities and encryption trends diverge, and risk asset pricing becomes more prudent

While oil prices fell back and gold prices remained flat, Bitcoin fell back above about $110,000, indicating a cooling in risk appetite but no panic. Energy retractions provide a buffer against inflationary pressures, but policy uncertainty increases the sensitivity of discount rates, and the valuation elasticity of weighted technology and high-debt assets is tested. Overall, the message before the opening of U.S. stocks was conservative, and the market was waiting for clearer policy and fundamental guidance.