[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] The path of interest rate hikes and new highs in gold prices affect sentiment, and U.S. stock futures rise (2025.10.08)

Futures rebound, market focuses on FOMC minutes

U.S. stock futures rose slightly before the market as investors weighed the interest rate outlook against the need for safe haven. After the S & P 500 ended its seven-game consecutive gains last night, futures rebounded by about 0.2% before the market, Nasdaq futures rose 0.2% simultaneously, and Dow Jones futures rose 0.3%. The ten-year U.S. bond yield fell back to 4.10%, down from 4.13% in the afternoon of the previous trading day. The easing of interest rate pressure will help improve the sentiment of technology and growth stocks. The federal government's shutdown has entered its second week, and macro data releases have been affected. Markets are concerned about whether policy signals later can provide direction.

Federal Reserve Commission minutes, clues to interest rate path attract attention

The key to the market lies in the minutes of the September FOMC meeting released at 2 a.m. on October 9, Taiwan time, which covers the internal debate and economic assessment after the first interest rate cut this year. Discussions at the meeting reflected the different views of policymakers on inflation, the labor market and the level of real interest rates, with new director Stephen Miran's opinion advocating a larger adjustment being closely watched. The government shutdown delayed many statistics, including last week's non-farm payrolls report, but the Federal Reserve Committee operated as usual regardless of congressional funding restrictions, and the minutes became the market's most useful policy signal at present.

Gold prices hit new highs, risk aversion and currency uncertainty superimposed

The international gold price broke through US$4,050 per ounce before the market and hit a record high, reflecting the weakening of the US dollar, expanding fiscal deficits and rising demand for safe-haven uncertainty in the monetary system. So-called de-valued transactions have pushed funds into real assets such as gold, and have also driven Bitcoin back to about $122,900 after hitting a new high of more than $125,000 earlier this week. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridge Water Fund, believes that the current environment is similar to the 1970s and suggests increasing the proportion of gold in asset allocation to further strengthen the market's allocation thinking to combat inflation and credit risk.

The previous day's pullback, AI profits realized doubts suppressed the rally

The S & P 500 fell 0.38% yesterday to end its seven-game streak. Nasdaq and Dow Jones closed lower simultaneously, mainly due to investors 'assessment of the matching of AI payback period with corporate profit momentum. Most Asian stock markets weakened this morning. The Nikkei index fell from a historical high, and the Stoxx 600 in Europe also fell slightly by 0.17%. Cross-regional sentiment was cautious, making the pre-market rally momentum of U.S. stocks mainly moderate. Overall, the downward trend of interest rates and the strengthening of safe-haven assets have created a downward trend, and stock market risk appetite has not yet shown a trend turning.

Interest rates and US dollar, bond yields fall to ease valuation pressure

The ten-year U.S. bond yield fell back to 4.10%, which is relatively favorable to growing assets, also depressed the trend of the dollar and supported dollar-denominated commodities. Although the yield rate level is still above the average of the past decade, the marginal downward trend has reduced the pressure on the stock market discount rate. Next, the market focuses on the description of inflation in the minutes and the discussion of neutral interest rates, which will affect the probability distribution of the pace of interest rate cuts at the end of the year and next year, and in turn affect the relative performance of cycles and technology stocks.

AI industry chain, capital expenditure and profit margins under review

The latest cooperation progress between Nvidia(NVDA) and OpenAI has triggered market discussions on the direct supply cooperation model. NVDA previously announced plans to invest up to US$100 billion to cooperate with OpenAI to expand AI data center capabilities and strengthen the binding of upstream supply and downstream customers. On the other hand, the gross profit margin of Oracle's (Oracle, ORCL) cloud leasing business of Fuida chips was only about 14% in the most recent quarter, far lower than the overall level of about 70%, causing market doubts about the short-term profitability of AI cloud services. Industry views point out that although there is controversy over a valuation bubble, there are still a large number of AI projects with real returns in progress, and differentiated fundamentals may become the main axis of market stock selection.

Focus on electric vehicles, Tesla's pricing of low-cost models has caused disagreement

Tesla(TSLA) edged up about 0.5% in pre-market trading, recovering part of a decline of more than 4% yesterday when it launched a lower-priced version of its model. The company announced more people-friendly versions of the Model 3 and Model Y, priced at approximately US$35,000 and US$38,000. Although responding to long-term calls, some investors are looking forward to price cuts for new entry-level models rather than existing models. Pricing strategy is reflected in the trade-off between demand elasticity and gross profit margin. Subsequent delivery and profit trends will become the focus of industry observation, and may also affect interbank pricing and promotion strategies.

M & A themes, Confluent rumored that the stock price rose sharply after launching a sale evaluation

Confluent(Confluent, CFLT) rose nearly 20% in pre-market trading. Market news said that the company is evaluating potential sales plans based on multiple interests, focusing on its data infrastructure capabilities to support AI development. The report pointed out that the company was working with investment banks to explore options, and both private equity funds and strategic investors expressed interest. The stock has fallen by about a quarter this year. The news has stimulated capital replenishment, and software and data infrastructure themes have simultaneously attracted attention.

Global trading craze, funds and interest rate cut expectations push up the scale of mergers and acquisitions

Global M & A value reached US$1.29 trillion in the third quarter, up from 1.06 trillion in the second quarter and 1.1 trillion in the first quarter, reflecting that abundant funds and expectations of interest rate cuts boosted trading willingness. Japan's Softbank announced that it will acquire the robotics business of Swiss engineering company ABB for US$5.4 billion, showing that large capital continues to add to automation and AI-related assets. M & A fever helps improve valuation comparability and exit channels, providing support for mid-sized growth stocks and theme stocks, but transaction approval and integration risks still need to be paid attention to.

Raw materials and foreign exchange markets, gold shows strength, bitcoin falls back

The weakening of the US dollar and safe-haven demand pushed up the gold price to continue to hit a high end. Bitcoin fell back from a record high to approximately US$122,900, and the volatility of risky digital assets intensified. There is a divergence of hedging portfolios in asset allocation, with precious metals and some commodities benefiting, while the stock market relies more on valuation support brought by downward interest rates. If the US dollar rebounds in the short term or bond yields rebound, gold's gains may slow down, and the relative performance of stocks, bonds and commodities will be rebalanced.

Government shutdown continues, data vacuum amplifies the influence of minutes

The federal government's shutdown has entered its second week, and key reports such as the labor market and inflation have been delayed, increasing the market's reliance on written signals from the Standing Committee in the short term. The data vacuum period makes the market more sensitive to corporate news and financial forecast updates, and the volatility of individual stocks has increased before the market. The guiding role of the bond market and the US dollar has increased during this period, and investors are concerned about whether yield rates will remain moderate downward to support the evaluation of risky assets.

The key before the market is to pay attention to futures trends and the implementation of late-night minutes

On the whole, futures are rising, bond yields fall and gold prices are high at the same time. Risk appetite resonates with risk aversion. The index tends to open higher in early trading, but the upside still depends on policy and interest rate signals. Before the minutes of the FOMC meeting at 2 a.m. on October 9, Taiwan time, the market was mainly rotated within the sector, and the technology and AI chains were deeply driven by discussions on interest rates and profits. Individual stocks are paying attention to the continuation of Tesla's pricing effect and the development of Confluent M & A themes, and overall trading is still event-driven as the core.