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[Intraday Analysis of U.S. Stocks] Market risk appetite for retractions after historical highs cools (2025.10.10)

U.S. stocks fell back from highs during the session, with fees leading the decline; U.S. bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar depressed valuations. Delta's earnings report drove airlines higher, Tesla came under pressure from the FSD investigation; Fuida created high but divided semiconductors, and the rare earth and battery chains were pushed up by policies.

Market retracts after historical highs, risk appetite cools

U.S. stocks pulled back after the S & P and the Nasdaq index hit highs. The four major indices fell across the day, with Fei Ban leading the decline. The 10-year U.S. bond yield continued to rise, the US dollar strengthened, the gold price fell from the high end, and oil prices and Bitcoin weakened simultaneously, indicating that funds are turning to wait and see between AI and expectations of interest rate cuts. On the market, aviation, some AI weights and the concept of rare earth fell against each other, but the overall transaction momentum was divergent.

Major indices fell across the board and were relatively weak

The Dow Jones industrial average. DJI was down 0.61 percent at 46,317.28. The S & P 500 index was provisionally down 0.54 percent at 6,717.4. the nasdaq composite index fell 0.59 percent to 22,906.36. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was provisionally at 6,777.21, down 1.21 percent. The index pullback was mainly affected by pressure on the evaluation of growth stocks and weakening semiconductor stocks.

Capital rotation turns to fundamental verification and defense configuration

Market funds focus on financial reports with high visibility and stable cash flow targets, transfer of property and defensive consumption are relatively supportive, and the internal differentiation of information technology has intensified. Essential consumption such as Pepsi provides relative stability in an environment of rising interest rates and the US dollar, while semiconductors experience high-end shocks. Overall, the market's long-term trend towards AI remains unchanged, but short-term evaluations and interest rate changes affect the pace.

Delta's better than expected drives the aviation community to strengthen

Delta Air Lines(DAL) delivered a better-than-expected quarterly report and raised its outlook, driving shares up 4.16 percent as buying activity expanded in volume. The company mentioned that business and leisure demand stabilized and fuel costs were controllable, driving the sentiment of peers to warm up. United Airlines(UAL) rose simultaneously, and aviation stocks became a few obvious red-receiving groups on the disk.

Tesla is investigated by FSD to suppress emotion on electric vehicles

Tesla(TSLA) was affected by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's investigation into fully automated driving assistance systems, falling 1.99% intraday, with significant selling pressure. Regulatory uncertainty suppresses the trend of electric vehicles in the short term. At the same time, Boeing(Boeing, BA) was under pressure due to the risk news that Turkish Airlines might adjust its 737MAX order, becoming one of the weaker stocks in the Dow Jones component, and its industrial equity value was under pressure.

Pepsi slightly beat expectations and replaced chief financial officer to support defensive stocks

PepsiCo(PepsiCo, PEP) reported slightly outperforming the market in revenue and profits and announced its new chief financial officer, and its share price rose during the session. Essential consumption has resisted decline in an environment of rising interest rates and an appreciation of the US dollar. Investors pay attention to its pricing power and cost control as a safe haven for funds when market shocks.

Huida creates high prices, but the overall semiconductor retracts

Nvidia(NVDA) hit an intraday high of 195.30 in early trading, rising 1.77% at 192.46. It was inspired by Wall Street's higher target price and the United States 'approval of exporting high-end chips to the UAE. However, the overall semiconductor stocks retreated due to the impact of higher evaluations and higher interest rates, with the fee-half index leading the decline in the market. In terms of individual stocks, Dell Technologies fell 5.68%, AppLovin (APP) fell 5.27%, Albemarle(ALB) rose 5.38%, and Kenvue(KVUE) rose 3.61%, indicating widening divisions within the ethnic group.

The trend of technology-weighted individual stocks is differentiated and the pulse of the index is affected

The divergent performance of large technology stocks caused index shocks. In addition to Tesla(Tesla, TSLA) weakening, Apple(Apple, AAPL) fell 1.85%, Microsoft(Microsoft, MSFT) fell 1.16%, Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 1.73%, and Amazon.com(Amazon, AMZN) fell 0.59%. In comparison, Meta Platforms(Facebook, META) rose 1.15%, while Nvidia(NVDA) bucked the trend higher. The division of the seven heroes has left the market lacking consistency to lead the rally momentum.

Rare earth and battery chains are driven by policies to increase volume

After Beijing announced a new round of rare earth-related export controls, MP Materials (MP) rose by more than 10% in early trading, while Lithium Americas (LAC) and Trilogy Metals(TMQ) also showed significant upswings and trading was active. The United States has supported key mineral supply chains with industrial policies and investment in recent months. The news has been compounded by policy changes, boosting the willingness of relevant concept stocks to take risks.

Medical mergers and acquisitions and the outlook of European car manufacturers affect fluctuations in individual stocks

Akero Therapeutics(AKRO) shares rose sharply due to Novo Nordisk's announcement of acquisition plans, while Novo Nordisk's U.S. listed shares weakened. Ferrari's share price fell after releasing a relatively conservative outlook, highlighting the increased sensitivity of high-end consumers to outlook guidance.

Precious metals and crude oil fall back and the US dollar strengthens weakens risk appetite

Gold prices fell back from all-time highs, and spot silver once hit the US$50 per ounce mark before its rally subsided. Affected by signals that the Middle East peace plan was moving towards the first phase, oil prices fell back and risk premiums fell slightly. Bitcoin has weakened simultaneously. The US dollar rose against the euro, the pound and the yen, as the trend of funds returning to US dollar assets suppressed non-US and commodity price momentum.

Higher yields and a retracement of futures index futures have created headwinds on valuations

The yield rate on 10-year U.S. bonds continued to rise intraday, which was unfavorable to the discount rate of high-value growth stocks and limited the performance of technology and semiconductors. The trend of stock index futures retreated simultaneously with the spot, and the VIX volatility indicator changed limited, indicating that the market is mainly based on evaluation revisions and news wait-and-see, and there has been no panic risk aversion.

Federal Reserve message and government shutdown create data vacuum

The minutes of the Federal Reserve Board's September meeting showed that most officials tended to cut interest rates at least twice during the year, and the market focused on Chairman Bauer's subsequent remarks to seek policy guidance. The federal government's shutdown has delayed the release of scheduled economic data. Investors have turned to financial reports and corporate guidance as climate thermometers. Bank financial reports are about to kick off and will review changes in credit quality and net interest margins.

Intraday volume and trading strength show differences in subject matter

UiPath(UiPath, PATH) rose again intraday after strengthening in recent days. Driven by the agent-based AI automation theme, volume and price are well matched. Costco(COST) was supported by recent sales data, and pre-market gains drove channel sentiment. JPMorgan Chase(JPM) CEO Dimon reiterated his warning of a sharp pullback in risk in the market, increasing investors 'sensitivity to uncertainty. In terms of overall quantity and energy distribution, the concepts of aviation and rare earth are increasing in volume, while the weights of science and technology are differentiated.

Short-term focus on interest rate trends and policy signals to re-price risky assets

The follow-up focus will be on the trend of U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar, talks with Fed officials, and the impact of the situation in the Middle East on oil price risk premiums. At the same time, the leading structure and diffusion of the AI main line, and the fundamental continuity of aviation and essential consumption will determine whether the index can reunite the consensus on upward attacks. Under the data vacuum, the importance of corporate financial reports and guidance has increased, and the market may continue to show structural rotation.

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