[U.S. Stocks Before the market] The tightening of rare earth exports affects the technology supply chain, and U.S. stocks are breathing before their historical highs (2025.10.10)

Rare earths are tight and the risk premium of technology and defense supply chains is heating up

Before Friday's market session in Taiwan time, the market focus was on China's further tightening of export management of rare earths and related technologies, and increased policy risk premiums for technology hardware, electric vehicles and defense supply chains. China supplies about 70% of the world's rare earths. This regulation requires companies to export products containing rare earths from China to obtain a license issued by Beijing. Companies related to foreign militaries or listed companies are not allowed to be approved. The news comes on the eve of a possible meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, which means giving up bargaining chips. Pre-market sentiment turned defensive, and supply chain availability, approval time and cost variables entered the investor valuation framework.

High-end shocks continue, with S & P and Nasdaq falling slightly from historical highs

After reaching a high in the previous trading day, the main U.S. stock index pulled back in the early hours of Friday morning in Taiwan time. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.28% and 0.08% respectively. Evaluation pressure and policy uncertainty have increased the willingness to take profits. In the short term, the advancement of risky assets requires new fundamentals or policy catalysis, otherwise the probability of high-end consolidation will increase. The market's re-evaluation of supply chain policies and global demand trends affects the allocation of funds between growth and defense assets.

The escalation of policy interaction has attracted attention, and Sichuan and Xi may meet to stimulate negotiation expectations

As China tightens rare earth exports, the outside world is concerned about the subsequent impact of high-level interactions between the United States and China on technology controls, investment reviews and the supply of key materials. If South Korea takes part in the Sichuan Xi'an meeting determines that the two sides' mutual threshold setting in the fields of high technology and raw materials will still be the core issue. The risk is that any additional restrictions could disrupt the pace of production in downstream industries such as semiconductors, automobiles and wind power, making corporate order visibility and inventory management more conservative.

Discussions on pulling back risks after gold hits high, and risk avoidance and interest rate expectations are intertwined

Gold broke the $4,000-a-ounce milestone this week, sparking discussions about whether safe-haven positions in asset allocation are overheating. On the one hand, investors assess the suppression of inflation and real interest rates on gold prices, and on the other hand, they also consider the support brought by geography and policy uncertainty. The volatility of assets related to gold mines and precious metals may increase, and the swing of funds between the cooling of growth stocks and the lifting of safe-haven assets has become a key description of the pre-market mentality.

Asian semiconductors are returning strongly, and AI supply chain popularity continues to focus on U.S. stocks

Shares of Samsung and SK Hynix hit new highs after South Korea resumed trading after a long holiday, reflecting the resilience of medium-term demand for AI memory and advanced packaging. The pre-market focus of U.S. stocks also focused on AI chain leaders such as Nvidia(NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), and Intel(INTC). Investors are concerned about whether there is still fundamental catalytic support after the evaluation rises. The strong signal from Asian stock markets helped ease the pressure on U.S. stocks to fall back on the night before, but supply chain policy variables made the willingness to chase prices more restrained.

The decline in European stocks coincides with the tourism price war in China, with global demand intertwined with doubts about deflation

The European Stoxx 600 index closed lower early Friday morning in Taiwan time, reflecting reservations about policy and growth prospects. Domestic demand data for China's Golden Week shows that tourist numbers and income have increased year by year, but the average passenger order is still lower than in 2019. Signs of price war highlight the pressure on companies to exchange profits for volume. Such signals deepen the downside risk assessment of global commodity and service prices and constrain short-term evaluations of growth-sensitive stocks and cyclical stocks.

Rare earth themes ignite U.S. stocks fluctuate, miners and downstream customers are under review at the same time

After China tightened rare earth exports, the U.S. concept of rare earths and key minerals led gains in the previous trading day, as the market bet that Washington will accelerate the construction of a local supply chain. Investors pay attention to the progress of production capacity expansion and policy subsidies of supply-side companies before the market, while also reviewing cost dynamics and design alternatives for downstream applications such as electric vehicles, wind power and defense equipment. If the approval process is lengthened or costs increase, there may be room for adjustment in the gross profit assumptions of automotive, industrial and communication hardware factories.

News from industry stocks is intertwined, and the pace of electrification of luxury cars is questioned

Ferrari(RACE) recorded its worst single-day performance in the previous trading day due to its full-year and 2030 financial forecast falling short of expectations and slowing down the pace of electrification, highlighting the trade-off pressure on high-end cars between electrification investment and capital efficiency. The incident provides a mirror for the overall auto stocks, and the market will pay more attention to cash flow quality and product cycle visibility. At the same time, former Google CEO Schmidt's reminder of AI security risks has heated up discussions on AI supervision, and fine-tuning the risk premium of technology stocks has also become a pre-market issue.

Uncertainty continues in Washington, as the government shutdown enters its ninth day, affecting risk appetite

The U.S. government shutdown is entering its ninth day, and the short-term direct impact on economic activity is limited. However, if the time is prolonged, the pace of federal spending and data release may be disrupted. For the market, political noise has increased the risk premium, and investors are more inclined to wait for clear fiscal and policy paths under the high-end evaluation level. The U.S. finances negotiate progress with Congress, and together with technology supply chain policies form the double main line before the market.

Futures and opening positions wait and see, technology and raw materials pull together

Near the historically high end, the momentum of futures indexes is biased towards wait-and-see, and investors rely on intraday events and policy signals. The dual traction of rare earths and gold prices has caused the characteristics of capital flow at both ends of raw materials and technology to appear. The performance of large-scale equity stocks will still influence the volatility of the index, and whether the volume and energy will keep up will determine the short-term structure of withdrawing or creating higher heights.

Today's focus on catalysis is divided into two lines, and policy signals are as important as fundamental data.

From the policy perspective, pay attention to the pace of implementation of rare earth export rules and interact with high-level officials in the United States and China. Any new restrictions or exemptions will affect supply chain evaluation. Fundamentally, the pace of release of inflation, employment and retail related data will affect the repricing of the SFC path. Companies pay attention to the financial surveys and management conversations of AI, automotive and mining-related companies to provide new clues on orders, inventories and capital expenditures. Overall, under the framework of high-end shocks, funds adopt fast-in and fast-out on policy-sensitive topics, and risk control and information response speed have become the core of pre-market trading.