[Intraday Analysis of U.S. Stocks] Technology Equity Leading Index Higher Market Focus on Inflation and the Federal Reserve (2025.09.23)
Expectations of interest rate cuts pushed technology and semiconductors to lead the gains, with gold reaching highs and yields falling. Fuida, Oracle, and Tesla strengthened. The market focused on PCE's talks with the Federal Reserve Commission, and the evaluation was biased towards growth stocks.
Science and technology leadership index rises, market focuses on inflation and the Federal Reserve Commission
U.S. stocks strengthened intraday, driven by large-scale technologies. Investors continued to trade the Fed's resumption of loose expectations, and growth stocks with sensitive evaluations prevailed. Gold's record high shows that interest rate cuts are heating up, but the pullback of crypto assets highlights the de-leveraging. Bank funds continue to be biased towards the semiconductor and AI supply chain, while waiting for the upcoming announcement of PCE prices and talking with a series of Federal Reserve officials.
Four major indexes Qi Hong Semiconductor performs the most well
The Dow Jones industrial average was provisionally reported at 46,406.8, up 0.20%. The S & P 500 index was tentatively trading at 6,691.28, up 0.40%. The Nasdaq Composite Index was provisionally trading at 22,766.29, up 0.59%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was temporarily reported at 6,331.97, up 1.60%, with semiconductors leading the market. The disk style is biased towards growth and technology, and the volume can be amplified by the AI and test equipment community.
AI themes are heating up again, news that Huida and Oracle benefit rises
Nvidia(NVDA) gained intraday trading as the market focused on the company's plans to invest up to US$100 billion in OpenAI in the next few years to strengthen AI infrastructure and demand visibility. Oracle(Oracle, ORCL) benefited simultaneously, and the White House confirmed that it will participate in an investor consortium to control TikTok's U.S. business, triggering imagination about cloud and data security themes, and driving back buying for corporate software and cloud stocks.
Tesla is supported by self-driving and robot themes, securities firms raise target prices
Tesla(TSLA) is booming intraday, and the market continues to pay attention to the development of self-driving cars and the pace of new products. Broker Piper Sandler raised its target price from US$400 to US$500, continuing the recent trend of foreign investors to revise their reviews and target prices, and supporting the stock price at a high end.
Large-scale technological differences dominate growth styles
Apple(Apple, AAPL) rose strongly in the intraday session, leading the shares in sync with Vitek; in contrast, Meta Platforms(Facebook, META), Microsoft(Microsoft, MSFT), Alphabet(GOOGL) and Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) showed volatile differences. Overall, funds still tend to be AI-driven high-growth themes, and the index structure is favorable to growth stocks.
Testing equipment and biotechnology led the rise, weak consumption and agricultural food fell
Teradyne(TER) rose more than 10% intraday, driven by semiconductor testing demand and AI cycles;Moderna(MRNA) rose more than 7%, and the biotechnology community returned to temperature. In contrast, Kenvue (KVUE) fell more than 6%, Archer-Daniels-Midland(ADM) fell about 4%, and defensive consumer and agri-food stocks were under pressure, indicating that the rotation of funds from defense to growth is still continuing.
Economic data is moderate, the market is waiting for PCE to verify the path of interest rate cuts
The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank National Activity Index reported-0.12, a nearly five-month high, indicating a moderate improvement in overall activity but still below the long-term average. The core of the market is concerned about PCE prices. If inflation shows that pressure continues to cool, it will strengthen the probability of another small interest rate cut to provide support for risky assets; on the contrary, if price pressure remains, short-term fluctuations may increase.
Fed information-intensive official talks affect interest rate expectations
Federal Reserve officials spoke intensively this week, and Chairman Powell attracted much attention. Stephen Miran, the new Fed governor supported by Trump, said that interest rates should be about 2 percentage points lower than the current one, and signals that favor easing support interest rate cuts; Atlanta Fed President Postik prefers interest rates only once during the year; St. Louis Fed official Musalem said there is limited room for further interest rate cuts. Differences in speech have caused the market to maintain dynamic pricing of the path, and the short-term key still returns to the actual data of inflation and employment.
Gold hits record high, bond rates fall and oil prices fall
Spot and gold futures broke past historical highs of $3750 per ounce in intraday trading, echoing increased market bets on the number of subsequent interest rate cuts. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell back to about 4.13%, with interest rate-sensitive evaluations of the Internet and semiconductors receiving support. Crude oil prices fell back to around US$62 per barrel, and energy stocks were relatively under pressure, indicating that the market's expectations for rebalancing prosperity and supply and demand were not yet clear.
De-leveraging of crypto assets reveals divergence of risk appetite
Bitcoin and major tokens fell intraday, and the market reported that more than US$1.5 billion in long positions had been forcibly closed, and the performance of risky assets diverged. Although the interest rates related to technology stocks and AI-related benefits fell, the adjustment of leveraged positions put pressure on non-mainstream risk assets, and funds were more concentrated on weight targets with clear fundamentals and good liquidity.
Strategic observations point to PCE and policy trends. Futures weakened early and spot turned stronger
Futures were under pressure at the beginning, but the spot index rose after the opening, indicating that bargain hunting continued to enter the market. Wall Street institutions 'outlook for the end of the year is more positive. Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target for the S & P 500 to 7200 points, and RBC Capital raised it to 7100 points. However, the actual trend will still be influenced by PCE and the Federal Reserve Commission messages. Changes in yield rates and the visibility of semiconductor orders will determine the room for extension of growth stock evaluations.
Enterprise dynamics drives the focus of the panel, mergers and acquisitions and regulatory news are parallel
Pfizer(Pfizer, PFE) announced that it will spend approximately US$7.3 billion to acquire weight loss drug company Metsera to strengthen the layout of weight management and metabolic line products; the U.S. government's policy signal that it will add US$100,000 to the H-1B work visa has attracted corporate attention. Microsoft(MSFT) and Goldman Sachs(GS) have issued internal notices to employees. Changes in regulation and labor costs may affect the talent layout in technology and finance, but the short-term impact on the index is emotional.
Risks and opportunities coexist, focusing on data implementation and yield rate path
To sum up, interest rate cut expectations and AI capital expenditure themes remain the main theme of long positions, while gold's rise and bond yields fall provide evaluation buffers. Short-term observation focuses on PCE inflation data, Fed officials 'talks and the trend of the 10-year yield rate. The volume-price continuity of semiconductors and large-scale technologies will be the key to whether the index can maintain high-end shocks.
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