Market analysis美股在连续创高后市场情绪转趋保守，一方面投资人静待即将公布的大型科技股财报，另一方面8/1关税大限将近，加上对联准会主席人选的不确定性，使近期强势的大型科技股早盘出现获利了结，导致美股主要指数回落。然而，美国财政部长贝森特表示，将于下周在斯德哥尔摩与中国官员进行新一轮磋商，期望延长关税休战并扩大协议范围，且强调「没有理由认为鲍尔将下台」。此番谈话降低市场避险情绪，标普 500 与道琼终场小涨至历史高点附近，罗素2000上涨约0.8%，惟纳指与费半受科技股拖累收低。类股方面，科技类股相对疲弱。Alphabet（GOOGL）财报前市场转趋观望，辉达（NVDA）、博通（AVGO）、台积电（TSM）均有所回档。盘后时段，德州仪器（TXN）发布财测未达市场期待，因汽车与中国需求不佳，导致股价重挫逾 10%，连带拖累安森美（ON）、亚德诺（ADI）、恩智浦（NXPI）同步下跌。医疗保健表现最强，主因医疗健康资讯与临床研究服务公司 IQVIA（IQV）Q2 财报优于预期，带动股价大涨近 18%，莫德纳（MRNA）、礼来（LLY）亦受到激励。房地产与公用事业股也受资金青睐，American Tower（AMT）、Crown Castle（CCI）等高配息 REITs 明显走强。随 AI 题材短线回调，投资人转进供电相关个股如 NextEra Energy（NEE）等。

Quick view of financial report

Tariff shocks drag down GM's earnings, but fuel vehicle sales support earnings

General Motors (GM) announced its second-quarter earnings report. Although it was hit by the Trump administration's car tariffs, it still exceeded market expectations driven by strong sales of pickup trucks and SUVs. The company maintains its full-year profit guidance unchanged and continues to reduce the impact of tariffs by adjusting production lines and cost controls. However, the stock price fell 8% as the market was disappointed with the revised financial forecast. As electric vehicle subsidies are about to be cancelled, GM will readjust the pace of transformation and focus more on fuel vehicle products in the short term.

• 关税影响加剧
  GM第二季因特朗普对进口车及零组件的关税，遭受11亿美元损失，全年关税冲击估计为40亿至50亿美元，公司预计可缓解其中约30%的成本。

• 财报表现优于预期
  尽管营收年减1.8%至471.2亿美元，经调整每股盈余为2.53美元，优于市场预期的2.44美元。调整后息税前盈余（EBIT）为30.4亿美元，年减31.6%。

• 燃油车成获利支柱
  美国市场销售成长7%，大型皮卡与SUV定价能力强劲，是主要获利来源。GM第二季共售出97.4万辆汽车，其中电动车销量为4.63万辆，成为美国第二大电动车制造商。

• EV成长放缓与补助终止
  联邦税收补助将于9月30日取消，预期将导致电动车销量短期冲高后下滑。GM强调电动车仍为长期重点，但会依市场需求调整脚步。

• 投资美国产线以转移进口依赖
  GM宣布投资40亿美元在密西根、堪萨斯与田纳西三厂，将部分在墨西哥生产的车款迁回美国生产，降低对外依赖以应对关税压力。

Dei's financial forecast fell short of expectations, trade tariffs and weak demand caused stock prices to plummet

After Texas Instruments (TXN) announced its second-quarter earnings report, its share price fell 11.4% after hours as its third-quarter financial forecast was worse than market expectations, and tariffs and supply chain uncertainty disrupted demand. Although second-quarter revenue was slightly higher than expected, weak demand for automotive and industrial applications and sluggish wafer capacity utilization put pressure on profits and gross profit. Although Deyi is investing heavily in U.S. production capacity expansion, it is still difficult to escape the challenges brought by geopolitics and industrial adjustment in the short term.

• 财测逊于市场预期
  德仪预估第三季每股盈余为1.36至1.60美元，低于分析师预期中位数1.49美元；预期营收区间为44.5亿至48亿美元，也略低于市场预期的45.9亿美元。

• 第二季营收略优预期
  第二季营收为44.5亿美元，虽年减但略高于市场预估，显示部分客户可能提前下单以因应未来关税风险。

• 汽车与工业需求疲弱
  汽车市场复苏力度不足，工业客户亦出现订单正常化现象。管理层坦言，需求走势部分与关税环境相关，订单行为出现异常波动。

• 毛利压力与产能利用率低
  德仪预期第三季工厂负载率与第二季持平，导致固定成本分摊效果有限。公司预估第三季毛利率将呈现持平，难以支撑获利成长。

• 投资扩产与美国政策影响
  德仪计划投入逾600亿美元扩建美国晶圆厂，聚焦300毫米制程技术。但新税改法案影响尚未纳入本次财测，未来仍可能进一步影响财务表现。

Coca-Cola's second-quarter profit exceeded expectations, as European demand offset downward pressure on global sales

Coca-Cola (KO) reported second-quarter results, with revenue and profit both better than Wall Street's expectations, mainly benefiting from growing demand in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, offsetting weak sales in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions. However, global sales still fell by 1% year-on-year, indicating that weak economic and consumer confidence remain challenges. The company's full-year outlook has narrowed slightly, and it continues to focus on price strategies and product innovation to respond to changes in demand.

• 财报表现超出预期
  调整后每股盈余为0.87美元，高于市场预期的0.83美元；调整后营收为126.2亿美元，也优于预期的125.4亿美元。净利达38.1亿美元，年增58%。

• 全球销量萎缩
  整体销量年减1%，其中北美与拉丁美洲各减1%与2%，亚太地区减少3%。仅欧洲、中东与非洲市场成长3%，成为主要支撑来源。

• 饮品类别需求分化
  气泡饮品销量下滑1%，果汁、乳制品与植物基饮品减少4%；运动饮料下滑，但咖啡销售成长使整体「水与其他饮品」类别维持持平。

• 社交媒体风波短期影响销售
  针对拉美市场的移民传言虽被公司否认，但影响一度造成西语裔消费者购买意愿下降，直至6月底才逐渐恢复。

• 产品创新与未来展望
  公司将于秋季在美国推出以甘蔗糖制成的新可乐口味，并重申2025年有机营收将成长5%至6%，全年EPS成长预估收敛至3%。

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

US-China trade negotiations will be extended, and the United States simultaneously promotes multilateral bilateral tariff agreements

The United States and China will hold a new round of trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, next week, which is expected to extend the 90-day tariff suspension originally scheduled to expire on August 12. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stressed that U.S. -China trade relations have entered a "good stage" and revealed that the meeting will cover deep structural issues such as overmanufacturing, energy imports and market access. At the same time, U.S. President Trump also announced the latest trade agreements with the Philippines, Japan and Indonesia, continuing to reshape the global trade order through tariff negotiations.

• 美中会谈将延长关税暂停期
  美中双方原于5月达成90天暂停高关税的临时协议，避免145%与125%的报复性关税全面恢复。新一轮会谈将讨论延长此期限，并聚焦中国产能过剩、稀土出口管制与俄伊石油贸易等议题。

• 美对菲律宾达成19%关税协议
  川普宣布与菲律宾达成协议，将美方对菲输美商品课征19%关税，但菲方不对美国商品征税。双方亦强调深化军事合作。菲律宾官方尚未正式确认协议内容。

• 美日贸易协议强调投资与市场开放
  川普表示美日已敲定协议，对日本进口商品课征15%关税，并取得美方对汽车、稻米与农产品等更大市场准入。同时，日本承诺向美国投资5,500亿美元，惟未明确降低对日车辆25%关税。

• 美印尼达成互惠贸易协议框架
  美印尼贸易协议将美方关税定为19%，较原先32%大幅下降。印尼将取消对美商品的大部分关税与非关税障碍，并预计购买价值逾180亿美元的美国飞机与能源产品。

• 美方透过「关税信函」施压多国
  川普7月陆续寄发「关税通知信」给数十个贸易伙伴，威胁自8月起调升关税至20%以上，以逼迫对方让步。财长贝森特强调，这些信函有助美方施压谈判，加速达成更有利协议。

industry

U.S. tariff impact on European cars widens, and profits fall sharply.

U.S. President Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts from Europe since April, and tariffs on steel and aluminum have reached as high as 50%, causing the cost of European car factories to soar. The latest financial reports of European auto giants such as Stellantis, Volvo and Renault show that trade policies are exacerbating supply chain pressures and market uncertainty, thereby eroding operating profits. If tariffs are increased to 30% from August, the impact may intensify.

• Stellantis预估损失达15亿欧元
  Stellantis上半年关税支出约3亿欧元，全年损失预估将达10亿至15亿欧元（约新台币350亿至525亿）。该集团上半年预估净亏损23亿欧元，凸显美国市场依赖程度之高。

• Volvo利润腰斩
  Volvo第二季营业利润年减逾60%，从80亿瑞典克朗降至29亿（约3.02亿美元），主因为美国关税成本与北美出货减缓。公司已宣布将其热销车款XC60转移至美国南卡州生产，以避开关税。

• Renault仍受欧洲市场压力
  尽管不直接进军美国市场，Renault仍受欧洲需求疲弱与中国车厂竞争挤压，导致下修2025年财测并更换临时执行长。近期车款更新虽推升销量，但无法完全抵销产业压力。

• 关税升级风险未解
  川普威胁8月起将欧洲汽车关税由25%提高至30%，欧盟尚未宣布反制措施。贸易政策变数将持续牵动欧洲车厂布局与全球供应链调整。

• 产能转移与地缘调整加速
  面对高关税，欧洲车厂加快布局美国本地生产与供应链再设计，Volvo为典型案例。更多企业将考虑美国设厂与策略投资，以降低对跨境贸易的依赖。