Market analysis

受美国 ISM 服务业指数意外回落影响，市场情绪一度转趋保守，美股在平盘附近开出。不过，川普日前预告将于下周内公布《232条款半导体调查》结果，随后媒体披露他将宣布苹果（AAPL）启动「美国制造计划」，未来四年额外投资1,000亿美元，使总投资上看 6,000 亿美元。该计划涵盖战略性合作，包括与康宁（GLW）、MP Materials（MP）及多家半导体厂商合作建构在地供应链，市场因而预期大型科技制造商有望避开半导体关税冲击。另一方面，标普 500 中已有超过 8 成企业公布财报，整体企业基本面展现韧性。联准会两位官员也释出鸽派讯号，包括旧金山联准银行总裁 Daly 表示应尽早调整利率以防劳动市场恶化，明尼阿波利斯总裁 Kashkari 则称若经济放缓可启动降息，使市场避险情绪降温，VIX 指数下跌 6.05%，美股盘中强势上攻，终场除费半及罗素 2000 小跌，其余主要指数均收红。类股方面，Non-essential consumption and essential consumption led the gains.亚马逊（AMZN）计划向客户导入 OpenAI 模型，助力留住企业客户，股价大涨 4%；麦当劳（MCD）凭借联名与低价策略重拾动能，涨幅近 3%；DoorDash（DASH）第三季订单展望优于预期，盘后大涨 8.5%；Tesla（TSLA）因马斯克宣布将在下个月发布全新升级版 FSD，收涨 3.62%。此轮消费股走强反映出资金健康轮动现象。Shopify（SHOP）财报佳飙涨 22%，带动沃尔玛（WMT）上涨 4.1%、好市多（COST）上涨 2.6%、Target（TGT）上涨 2.9%。其他防御性个股如 Philip Morris（PM）、百事可乐（PEP）、可口可乐（KO）与宝侨（PG）亦普遍收涨。资讯科技类股中，硬体表现亮眼。苹果投资计划激励资金回流，Arista Networks（ANET）财报优异并获调升目标价，股价飙涨超过 17%，带动思科（CSCO）同步上扬 2.5%。半导体族群涨跌互见，博通（AVGO）上涨 3.0%、辉达（NVDA）上涨 0.7%、Palantir（PLTR）续扬 3.6%。医疗与能源类股则相对疲弱，其中安进（AMGN）因市场对其减重药物展望存疑而大跌 5.6%，拖累礼来（LLY）下跌 2.6%；能源股则因俄乌战事缓和及油价回落而普遍承压。

 

Quick view of financial report

Uber announced an 18% year-on-year increase in Q2 revenue, launched a $200 billion stock repurchase program, and increased its self-driving and AI layout

Uber (UBER) announced its second-quarter 2025 earnings report, with revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year to US$12.65 billion, better than market expectations, and announced a massive US$200 billion stock repurchase plan. Although the market still has doubts about the power of U.S. consumption, Uber CEO Khosrowshahi emphasized that the platform is growing steadily and will further invest in self-driving technology and AI applications to deepen its competitiveness in the automated travel market.

• Double-digit growth in revenue and users
  第二季营收为126.5亿美元，年增18%；每股盈余为0.63美元，符合预期。平台活跃用户达1.8亿人，年增15%；总预订量达468亿美元，年增17%，带动净利成长至13.6亿美元。

• Launch $200 billion in stock buybacks
  Uber宣布将动用约50%自由现金流进行股票回购，是历来规模最大的一次，显示管理层对未来获利与资本结构信心十足。

• Self-driving and AI business expansion
  Uber与Waymo合作已在奥斯汀与亚特兰大提供robotaxi服务，平均完成行程数超过99%司机。并投资Lucid与Nuro推动自驾车部署，计划未来在多国扩展无人车服务。

• Cross-platform integration and elderly market development
  公司持续强化「跨平台活跃度」，如Uber Eats在部分海外市场表现优于叫车服务。推出Senior Account模式、女性乘客避开男性司机功能，拓展多元客群。

• Share prices rose 48% during the year, falling slightly
  尽管Q2表现亮眼，Uber股价于财报发布当日小幅下跌近2%，但今年迄今仍上涨48%，明显优于Nasdaq同期8%的涨幅，反映市场对其转型策略的正面评价。

 

Disney raises its full-year profit forecast as its streaming and park business exceeds expectations

Disney (DIS) announced its third-quarter earnings report, raising its full-year earnings per share forecast to US$5.85, better than previous expectations, benefiting from revenue growth from its streaming media business and profit growth in its theme park division. The company continues to increase its streaming layout, announcing the integration of Disney+, Hulu and ESPN into a single application, and reaching a major live broadcast cooperation with the NFL and WWE, which is expected to further enhance subscription appeal and revenue performance.

• Streaming business turns loss into profit
  Disney+与Hulu合计新增260万用户，推升直营串流营收年增6%，至61.8亿美元，该部门营业利益由去年亏损1,900万美元转为盈余3.46亿美元。

• Strengthen the layout of live broadcast content
  ESPN将于8月21日推出订阅制串流App，月费29.99美元，并整合NFL与WWE等直播赛事。NFL更将取得ESPN 10%股权，标志体育内容平台化战略加速落地。

• Theme parks continue to be popular
  主题乐园与体验部门营收年增8%至90.9亿美元，营业利益达25亿美元，年增13%；美国乐园获利增长22%，迪士尼世界创下史上最佳第三季表现。

• Linear TV business continues to decline
  传统电视频道如ABC与FX等营业利益年减28%，至6.97亿美元，主要因广告收入与收视下降。尽管为产业趋势，公司整体娱乐部门仍受拖累。

• Overall profit was better than expected
  Q3调整后每股盈余达1.61美元，优于预期的1.47美元；但营收为236.5亿美元，略低于市场预估的237.3亿美元，投资人对电视业务衰退反应股价下跌3%。

 

Airbnb's second-quarter earnings beat expectations, with solid orders and revenue growth but stock price falling

Airbnb (ABNB) announced its second-quarter 2025 earnings report, with revenue and earnings per share exceeding market expectations, indicating that travel demand remains solid despite global economic uncertainty. However, despite the impressive results, Airbnb's share price fell nearly 6% after the results were announced, mainly due to market concerns about overvaluation and macro environment variables. The company also announced an expansion of repurchase authorization, releasing confidence in its long-term growth.

• Revenue and both profits exceeded the standard
  第二季营收达31亿美元，年增13%，高于市场预期的30.4亿美元；每股盈余为1.03美元，亦优于预期的0.93美元。净利为6.42亿美元，较去年同期的5.55亿美元大幅成长。

• Order and transaction volume growth
  第二季平台上总订房与体验数为1.344亿笔，年增7%，也超过分析师预期的1.3335亿笔。总预订金额（GBV）达235亿美元，远高于市场预估的226.6亿美元。

• Outlook for the third quarter remains stable
  公司预估第三季营收介于40.2亿至41亿美元，市场中位预期为40.5亿美元，显示成长趋势延续但幅度有限。

• Expand stock repurchase program
  Airbnb宣布新增60亿美元A类普通股回购授权。第二季已回购10亿美元，至6月底尚有15亿美元授权未使用。

• Stock price performance reflects valuations and market doubts
  尽管财报优异，Airbnb股价当日下跌5.94%，全年至今已累计下跌0.7%，跑输Nasdaq指数近10%的涨幅，显示市场对短期增长空间与估值存在疑虑。

 

Duolingo relies on AI-driven learning experience upgrades, raising its 2025 revenue forecast to more than $1 billion

Language learning platform Duolingo (DUOL) relies on AI technology to promote user engagement and subscriptions. Its revenue forecast for 2025 has been revised upwards from the previous US$987 million to US$996 million to US$1.01 billion to US$1.02 billion, which is better than market expectations. The second-quarter financial report was also impressive, with revenue reaching US$252 million, a significant annual increase, pushing after-hours stock prices up 20%.

• AI features help grow premium subscription solutions
  Duolingo旗下Super与Max两种付费方案整合生成式AI工具，包含AI视讯对话练习、错误诊断与个人化回馈，提升学习效果并吸引高价值用户。

• Expand language coverage and content generation efficiency
  公司过去12年仅建构100门课程，借助AI技术在一年内新增148门，显示内容扩张能力已获显著提升，有利持续吸引多语系学习者。

• Second-quarter earnings exceeded expectations overall
  第二季营收达2.523亿美元，优于市场预估的2.407亿美元；Q3预期营收区间为2.57亿至2.61亿美元，市场预估为2.53亿美元。

• Operational efficiency improves and AI costs decrease
  公司指出AI运算成本明显低于预期，加上广告收入略优于预期，使整体毛利率表现优化。2025年调整后营业利益预估为2.88亿至2.96亿美元。

• After-hours stock price surge reflects market confidence
  财报发布后，Duolingo股价在盘后交易上涨约20%，市场显著看好其AI导向策略与高订阅转换潜力，强化其在教育科技领域的领先地位。

 

Shopify's earnings exceeded expectations, AI tools-driven growth, and its stock price surged 21%

Shopify (SHOP) announced outstanding second-quarter earnings and strong outlook. Revenue and profits both exceeded market expectations, pushing its stock price up 21% in a single day. Despite concerns about the Trump administration's trade policies and tariff risks, the company said the actual impact has not occurred and consumer demand is solid. AI store creation tools and newly launched shopping agent functions have further enhanced the appeal of the platform.

• Q2 financial report comprehensively exceeded expectations
  第二季营收年增31%，达26.8亿美元，远高于市场预期的25.5亿美元；每股盈余0.35美元，也超出预期的0.29美元。商品总交易额（GMS）达878亿美元，年增29%。

• Tariff impact is lower than expected
  财务长表示，虽原先考虑关税对业务的潜在冲击，但第二季实际上「未产生实质影响」。美国消费需求依然稳健，未出现抢购或提前下单行为。

• AI tools become driving force
  Shopify于5月推出AI创店工具，并于本周新增支援AI购物代理功能，协助用户更快建立与优化电商体验。这些功能已对平台吸引力与商户留存度产生正面影响。

• Outlook for the third quarter is optimistic
  公司预估第三季营收将年增25%至29%，高于市场预估的21.7%。营业费用占比预计降至38%至39%，反映成本控管改善。

• Profits have increased significantly
  第二季净利大增至9.06亿美元（每股0.69美元），远高于去年同期的1.71亿美元。显示公司在高速扩张下仍能维持稳健获利能力。

 

McDonald's Q2 results beat expectations, U.S. sales pick up, but weakness among low-income consumers remains a worry

McDonald's (MCD) announced its second-quarter 2025 earnings report. Both revenue and profit exceeded market expectations. Same-store sales recorded the largest increase in nearly two years, pushing its stock price up more than 2%. However, CEO Kempczinski admitted that weak consumption among low-income groups still poses a challenge. The company is working with American franchisees to try to re-attract this core customer base through $5 value-for-money meals and new product promotions.

• Financial results are impressive, but differences remain
  调整后每股盈余为3.19美元，高于预期的3.15美元；营收达68.4亿美元，年增5%，同店销售成长3.8%，创近两年新高。美国同店销售成长2.5%，逆转连两季下滑。

• Consumption among low-income groups remains weak
  执行长指出，低收入消费者到访次数年减双位数，虽整体业绩回稳，但仍需依赖促销与价格策略重新吸引该族群。

• Promotional merchandise performance is outstanding
  Minecraft联名餐与McCrispy鸡柳新品拉抬美国销售，Snack Wraps睽违九年重返菜单，初期反应积极，$2.99促销价将延续至年底。

• International markets perform stronger
  日本、中国等新兴市场同店销售成长5.6%；英国、澳洲与加拿大等已开发市场成长4%。国际业务中消费者对品牌「价值与亲民」认同度提升。

• Outlook is optimistic but cautious
  管理层预期下半年表现更佳，特别是第四季相较去年疫情与食安事件基期偏低。不过面对美国经济分化与竞争压力，公司仍保持审慎态度。

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on imported chips to promote the return of semiconductor industry to the United States

U.S. President Trump announced that he would impose approximately 100% tariffs on all semiconductor and chip products that are not produced in the United States or have not been explicitly committed to setting up factories. This move is intended to strengthen the autonomy of the U.S. chip supply chain and stimulate domestic manufacturing investment. Trump stressed that if companies have already set up factories in the United States or have a clear commitment to build factories, they will be exempted from this tariff. The policy announcement comes as Apple (AAPL) announced a new US$100 billion in U.S. investment, symbolizing that large technology companies are actively responding to localization policies. However, the tax exemption threshold and specific implementation details are still unclear, and the business community is concerned about subsequent implementation specifications and scope of influence.

• High tariff policy pressure promotes transformation
  川普明言，未在美国设厂的半导体进口商将面临100%关税，目的是迫使企业在美投资制造设施。他也强调，若企业声称要建厂却未落实，政府将回溯计算并追征税款。

• Apple expands investment and takes the lead in responding
  苹果 (AAPL) 宣布未来四年将额外在美投资1,000亿美元，作为其原先5,000亿美元承诺的一部分，包括设立新的iPhone玻璃工厂，预期创造20,000个工作机会。

• Major chip manufacturers are located in the United States
  台积电、辉达 (NVDA)、GlobalFoundries 等晶片大厂纷纷宣布美国扩产计划。台积电已承诺在美投资1,650亿美元，辉达今年4月表示将投入5,000亿美元建立AI基础设施，GlobalFoundries则在6月宣布斥资160亿美元扩产。

• U.S. chip manufacturing is expanding rapidly
  根据半导体产业协会统计，自2020年以来，美国境内已有逾130项半导体制造专案启动，总投资金额超过6,000亿美元，显示美国在政策与补助驱动下快速提升晶片制造能量。

• Implementation details still need to be clarified
  虽然川普针对「承诺建厂」企业提供豁免，但未明确定义「承诺」的标准与监管方式，引发市场关注政策实施的可操作性与落地风险。

 

The United States is about to impose additional tariffs, Brazilian beef exports hit a record high in July, and India-US trade relations are strained

Before the United States is about to impose a new round of tariffs on imported goods, Brazil's refrigerated beef exports reached 276,900 metric tons in July, a record high, with an increase of nearly 17% year-on-year. The surge in shipments is related to Brazilian exporters 'advance shipment to avoid new U.S. tariffs. At the same time, the Trump administration announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. The trigger was India's continued import of Russian oil, which caused India-US trade relations to deteriorate sharply.

• Brazil's exports sprint ahead of tariffs
  巴西7月冷藏牛肉出口量创历史新高，其中12%出口美国。出口商Astra坦言提前出货以避开新关税，但对9月后市场展望悲观，显示政策不确定性正冲击营运策略。

• US imposes tariffs on India, detonating trade tensions
  川普宣布对印度商品加征额外25%关税，理由是其进口俄罗斯石油行为违背西方制裁精神。新税率将使部分商品关税高达50%，为目前对主要贸易伙伴中最严重之一。

• India's economy faces the risk of heavy export losses
  印度2024年对美出口额达870亿美元，受关税影响约55%商品，重创纺织、鞋类与珠宝等关键产业。分析预期GDP增速可能从原预估的6.5%降至6%以下。

• Market and official reactions are polarized
  印度外交部称美方决定「极为不幸」，强调俄油购买为满足14亿人口能源需求；而市场已出现反应，卢比走贬、股指期货下跌，出口商则呼吁政府祭出补贴应对。

• Trade negotiation window still exists
  新关税将于21天后生效，印度官员指出这段时间或可争取重启谈判。美方尚未对中国的俄油采购行为采取相同制裁，引发外界对政策选择性的质疑。

 

stocks

Apple invests another $100 billion in the U.S. to avoid tariffs and strengthen local manufacturing

U.S. President Trump announced that Apple (AAPL) will invest another US$100 billion in the United States, bringing a total commitment of US$600 billion. Although the move did not fully meet Trump's request for "localization of the iPhone," it was seen as a strategy to mitigate the potential 25% tariff risk. Apple's investment will expand its supply chain and high-end manufacturing layout, and will also help repair its relationship with the White House. Although final assembly remains in Asia, core components including semiconductors, glass and Face ID modules are partially manufactured in the United States.

• Apple's total investment reaches US$600 billion
  继2月承诺投资5,000亿美元后，苹果再宣布追加1,000亿美元，涵盖供应链与制造设施，并预计创造20,000个美国就业机会。

• Avoid potential high iPhone tariffs
  面对川普提出的25%关税威胁，此项投资被分析师视为苹果对政策风险的「聪明回应」，有助降低未来进口税冲击。

• Pressure on Trump to promote localized iPhone increases
  虽川普公开表示希望「在美制造iPhone」，苹果执行长库克回应称，许多零组件如晶片与玻璃已在美国生产，但最终组装仍将在海外「持续一段时间」。

• U.S. supply chain partners expand cooperation
  投资合作伙伴包括康宁 (GLW)、应用材料 (AMAT)、德州仪器 (TXN)、GlobalFoundries (GFS) 及博通 (AVGO)，显示苹果深化与美国供应商的策略联盟。

• Market response is positive
  苹果股价当日上涨5%，康宁盘后上涨近4%，应用材料也上涨近2%，显示市场对苹果投资举措与政策避险操作表现乐观。

 

Tesla will launch a new and upgraded version of the FSD self-driving system, with AI model parameters expanded 10 times and is expected to be released next month

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk announced that the company is training an upgraded version of the fully autonomous driving (FSD) system with 10 times parameter scale and major video processing improvements. It is expected to be released after completing testing as soon as the end of next month. Although FSD is still a "partially autonomous driving" system, Musk firmly believes that self-driving technology will become the core of Tesla's future growth, especially in a market environment where car sales are slowing and competition is intensifying.

• AI model parameters have been greatly expanded
  新版FSD采用参数量约为现有模型10倍的AI架构，强化视讯压缩与感知能力，有望提升自驾稳定性与准确度，改善当前仍需人类监控的使用体验。

• FSD continues to play a key role in revenue
  马斯克将FSD视为特斯拉未来成长的支柱，特别是在欧洲销售下滑、Q2汽车营收年减16%的压力下，自驾技术被视为突破点。

• Robotaxi layout has achieved initial results
  特斯拉已于德州奥斯汀启动robotaxi服务，未来可能与新一代FSD结合，拓展无人车商业化应用，对公司长期估值具想像空间。

• Integration with current Autopilot
  新FSD为Autopilot的升级方案，支援更复杂路况与自动驾驶场景。虽尚未实现全自动驾驶，市场仍对其技术潜力保持高度关注。

• Stock price performance and reputation risk coexist
  虽技术持续推进，但特斯拉今年股价已下跌23.55%，除基本面压力外，马斯克与白宫关系决裂也导致企业声誉受损，影响投资人信心。