[U.S. Stocks Pre-market] Moderate inflation continues to support interest rate cuts, and more futures drives the momentum to continue (2025.08.13)

There are too many futures, and U.S. stocks remain positive at opening

The three major U.S. stock futures rose slightly before the market in Taiwan. S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.2%, and Dow Jones futures rose further 0.3%, continuing the record high momentum moderately driven by inflation data in the previous trading day. Ten-year U.S. bond yields fell, oil prices fell by about 0.7%, gold prices rose slightly, and Bitcoin stood above $120,000. Dow Jones spot approached its first all-time high since December last year, and its weight and growth stock momentum improved simultaneously, continuing early risk appetite.

Inflation pressure suspends, market bets on three interest rate cuts before the end of the year

In July, the CPI increased by 0.2% monthly and 2.7% year-on-year, both moderate than market expectations; the core annual growth was slightly higher than expectations, but the overall cooling trend remained unchanged. After the latest data was released, interest rate futures showed that the odds of investors betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 1 yard in September, October and December this year will rise. The downward shift in the yield curve and the weakening of the US dollar have continued to support the evaluation environment for growth stocks.

Political noise rises, policy focus still returns to data and Federal Reserve messages

Trump said he would consider filing a major lawsuit against RRC Chairman Powell on the renovation and management of the headquarters, but market interpretations have limited direct impact on the path of monetary policy. Investors are concerned about whether subsequent Fed officials 'conversations and meeting minutes can further clarify the pace of interest rate cuts and whether there is an additional assessment of core inflation stickiness.

International stock market sentiment is too high, and Asia and Europe are strengthening simultaneously

Driven by the high U.S. stocks, Asian stocks generally closed in red, with the Nikkei 225 index hitting another all-time high, and the European stock STOXX 600 also rising slightly. Positive cross-market sentiment has returned to risky assets, raising the pre-market atmosphere of U.S. stocks, and buying in technology and cyclical stocks has continued.

Crude oil supply expectations are revised upwards, weak demand signals suppress oil prices

The International Energy Agency has raised its global supply forecast for this year and next. It expects supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day annually this year, 370,000 barrels more than the previous estimate, and the growth rate in 2026 will be revised upwards to 1.9 million barrels per day. The agency also pointed out that demand in major economies is weak, consumer confidence remains sluggish, and a strong rebound is unlikely in the short term. Oil prices fell amid the divergence of supply and demand signals, with differences in pre-market pricing between energy stocks and air transportation cost-sensitive groups.

AI cloud themes are divided, and ecological chain fluctuations are intensifying

The AI cloud company invested by Huida announced a loss that was larger than expected, and its stock price fell by about 9% before the market. Although revenue was higher than the market consensus, profit pressure and the pace of capital expenditure for the expansion plan became the focus. The company agreed last month to acquire long-term data center partners in an all-stock deal of approximately $9 billion. The news caused the AI computing and data center themes to show a divergence between profit-taking and stock picking before the market. Investors paid attention to the subsequent changes in the visibility of orders in the Huida supply chain and the balance of supply and demand for GPUs. The performance of Nvidia(NVDA) stock price remains a key reference for observing the industry's wind direction.

The outlook of restaurant chains turns conservative, and the sharp decline in CAVA affects the sentiment of consumer stocks

CAVA Group(CAVA Catering Group, CAVA) same-store sales increased by 2.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the market expectation of 6.25%, and revised down its full-year same-store growth outlook to 4% to 6%, lower than the previous 6% to 8%. Second-quarter revenue of US$278.2 million also fell short of expectations. The stock price fell nearly 25% before the market, and the cumulative decline has widened since the beginning of the year. The slowdown in consumption momentum of restaurant chains is intertwined with cost pressures, raising doubts about the continuity of non-essential consumer stocks under a high base period.

Uncertainty about supervision of large science and technology companies is heating up, and Chrome-related trends are attracting attention

Market news pointed out that new company Perplexity AI has made an unsolicited takeover bid of approximately US$34.5 billion for Alphabet's (Alphabet, GOOGL) Chrome, which is higher than the company's July valuation. The background of the move is that a U.S. antitrust ruling on the search business may be implemented as early as this week. The Justice Department has previously proposed possible options involving asset divestiture. Although the probability of a transaction being realized is unpredictable, regulatory variables and asset disposal rumors have increased the news sensitivity of large technology stocks.

Precious metals and digital assets rose at the same time, and funds were placed on both ends of offense and defense at the same time.

Gold prices rose slightly, supported by policy signals of safe-haven demand and tariff exemptions for gold. Some Wall Street views believe that gold prices still have room to rise. Bitcoin continues to rise above $120,000, indicating that appetite for risky assets has not been weakened by downward expectations in interest rates. The upward trend of the two reflects the decentralized allocation thinking of funds under the coexistence of cooling inflation and policy uncertainty.

The pulse of interest rates and raw materials has become the main axis of intraday stock rotation

Falling yields usually benefit high-rated growth stocks, while falling oil prices relatively support the downstream cost structure of shipping, aviation and some chemicals. If energy stocks weaken and technology stocks continue to strengthen, the index level may maintain a structure led by large technology and semiconductor leaders; conversely, if oil prices rebound, the performance space of value and cyclical stocks is expected to increase.

Focus on observation before the market and pay attention to the strength of futures and the spread of volume and energy

The three major index futures rose simultaneously before the market today. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the volume and energy spread to small and medium-sized stocks and non-technology groups after the opening. Secondly, observe whether the ten-year U.S. bond yield rate continues to fall to consolidate valuation support, the extended trend of oil prices after the IEA report, and the impact of news on the two major themes of AI cloud and restaurant chains on the two heavyweights of technology and consumer stocks. The data surface has been short-term vacuum after the implementation of CPI. The market focus has returned to individual stock financial forecasts and regulatory policy information. The short-term trend of the index still comes first with risk appetite and changes in interest rates.