Market analysis

周二公布的 CPI 数据进一步强化市场对 9 月降息的预期，利率期货显示市场几乎全面押注降息 25 个基点，并开始反映一次降息两码的可能性。然而，联准会内部对降息幅度仍存歧见。亚特兰大联准银行总裁 Bostic 表示，若劳动市场保持稳健，2025 年仅降息一次仍属适宜；芝加哥联准银行总裁 Goolsbee 则认为需更多数据来判断服务业通膨回升是否持续。不过，美国财长贝森特暗示联准会可能自 9 月启动一系列降息行动，并首度提及单次降息 50 个基点的可能性，进一步刺激市场押注宽松政策。同时，川普亦表示可能提前宣布新人联准会主席人选，目前候选名单已缩至 3 ～ 4 人，其降息的政治倾向，也加深宽松预期。类股方面，非必需消费类股领涨，其中零售与耐用品服饰涨势明显。亚马逊（AMZN）上涨 1.4%，计划年底前将即日生鲜配送拓展至 2,300 城市，挑战沃尔玛（WMT）杂货市占。家德宝（HD）上涨 2.8%、Lowe’s（LOW）大涨 4.7% 同步走强。资讯科技类股微跌 0.2%，表现分化。超微（AMD）劲扬 5.4%，辉达（NVDA）则小跌 0.86%。通讯服务类股小跌 0.5%，Meta（META）下滑 1.3%、Netflix（NFLX）下跌 1.7%、Alphabet（GOOGL）微跌 0.7% 压抑类股表现；派拉蒙（PARA）则因获 UFC 美国独播权大涨超过 36%。 

Quick view of financial report

Cisco benefits from soaring AI infrastructure demand, expected revenue exceeds market estimates

Cisco (CSCO) announced its fourth-quarter financial results for the fiscal year 2025, with revenue and earnings per share slightly higher than market expectations. The main reason is that the expansion of AI applications has driven enterprises and cloud service providers to significantly increase investment in network infrastructure. CEO Robbins said that AI-related infrastructure orders exceeded US$2 billion throughout the year, more than double the original target. Cisco is also actively involved in AI projects in the Middle East and emphasizes that the sovereign AI market will be the focus of future growth. The outlook for the first quarter and full year of fiscal 2026 is in line with expectations, showing that AI-driven growth momentum has become the core engine.

• AI infrastructure orders doubled
  2025财年AI相关订单突破20亿美元，其中Q4达8亿美元，约一半来自支援GPU的后端网路设备。

• Enterprise and cloud spending stimulates growth
  微软 (MSFT)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、Alphabet (GOOGL) 等云端巨头为应对AI需求，强化基础架构，带动思科网通设备订单双位数成长。

• Financial performance is slightly better than expectations
  Q4营收为146.7亿美元、EPS为0.99美元，皆略高于预估；Q1财测区间为146.5亿至148.5亿美元，也优于市场预期。

• Actively expand the layout of AI cooperation
  与BlackRock、微软等共组中东Stargate计划，并与沙乌地AI公司Humain合作，深化主权AI基础建设参与。

• Product line supports expansion of AI applications
  新推出可支援AI运算的交换器与路由器，搭配工业IoT与伺服器产品，推升整体网通业务成长12%。

 

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

The U.S. interest rate cut in September is almost certain, and the Federal Reserve policy turns to ignite market optimism

Affected by slowing inflation data and slowing employment, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates in September, and may even cut 50 basis points at a time. Finance Minister Scott Bessent publicly stated that interest rates were too tight and should be closer to the "neutral range." After the news was announced, the three major U.S. stock indexes hit new highs, global stock markets rebounded simultaneously, and bond markets and gold also benefited from the rise. The signal of the Fed's policy shift is gradually becoming clear. Especially with the weak labor market and the digestion of tariff pressure, expectations for a cycle of interest rate cuts continue to heat up.

• Chance of interest rate cuts hits new high
  根据CME FedWatch工具，市场预估9月降息机率达99.9%，显示投资人几乎笃定联准会将采取行动。

• Bessent proposes big moves to relax
  美国财政部长Bessent表示，利率应下调150至175个基点，甚至支持9月降息50个基点，并称现行政策过度限制经济。

• Inflation pressure eases to support easing stance
  最新CPI年增率低于预期，且目前进口关税尚未转嫁至消费者，使联准会更有空间放宽货币政策。

• Personnel changes in the Federal Reserve Commission attract attention
  继任Powell的人选名单增至11人，包含现任副主席及私部门人士，政策立场将牵动未来货币方向。

• Market response is positive
  全球股市连续两日创高，美国标普500与那斯达克再创新高，10年期美债殖利率下滑，黄金与日圆受惠走强。

 

industry

U.S. drug import tariffs will be implemented within weeks at the earliest, and the pharmaceutical industry is facing significant adjustment pressure.

The results of the U.S. government's 232 National Security investigation into drug imports may be announced in the next few weeks, although the original schedule has been delayed multiple times. President Trump said the tariffs will be implemented in phases, with initial rates starting at low levels and possibly eventually rising to 250%. The policy aims to force pharmaceutical companies to return to the United States to set up factories and reduce dependence on foreign countries. As this policy may push up drug prices and arouse industry and international concern, the White House has not yet finalized a specific release timetable. It is expected that another report on semiconductors will be released before announcing drug tariffs.

• Drug tariff plan delayed
  原订5月至6月公布的报告延宕至今，最新预估至少还需数周，白宫目前将重点放在美俄峰会与半导体议题。

• Tariffs may reach up to 250%
  川普表示关税将逐步上调，最终可能升至250%，涵盖处方药、原料药（API）与药品原物料。

• The policy goal is to return supply chains to the United States
  政府认为外包药品生产危及国安，希望透过高关税诱导制药商迁回美国扩产。

• European pharmaceutical companies and allies pay close attention
  欧盟、英国、日本与南韩已与美方签署双边贸易协议，争取更有利的出口条件，但仍难逃整体制裁风险。

• Including medical products in trade war sparks controversy
  药企与专家警告，关税恐推高药价，违背政府降低医疗成本的初衷，并损及病患可近性。

 

The United States secretly installs trackers in AI chip shipments and strengthens enforcement of export controls against China

In order to prevent the illegal flow of AI chips into China, the U.S. government has secretly embedded positioning trackers in some server shipments containing Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) chips. These trackers are hidden in the equipment packaging or inside of manufacturers such as Dell (DELL) and Super Micro (SMCI) as a tool for export control investigations. This move highlights the escalation of US law enforcement efforts, even while relaxing some restrictions on China, it also strengthens monitoring of technology outflow. China expressed concern about this and criticized the U.S. move as part of a technological crackdown.

• Trackers are implanted in AI server shipments
  美国执法单位已在部分高风险出货中安装追踪装置，用以追踪可能转运至中国的受限晶片与伺服器。

• Brands involved and supply chain exposure
  追踪器出现在Dell与Super Micro伺服器中，内含来自Nvidia与AMD的高阶晶片；有时甚至藏于产品内部。

• Chip smuggling cases prompt intensified surveillance
  有证据显示，中国透过第三地如马来西亚、新加坡、中东等地进行晶片转运，美方因此加强追踪与取证手段。

• China criticizes stalking
  中国官方对晶片内部「后门」风险表示担忧，并对美国出口管制与追踪装置政策表达强烈不满。

• Legislation to promote built-in positioning functions on chips
  白宫与国会正考虑要求美企在出口晶片中加入位置验证机制，以避免被转运至受限国家，扩大监控范围。

 

stocks

Amazon expands same-day fresh food delivery to more than a thousand cities and towns, reshaping the e-commerce fresh food competition landscape

Amazon (AMZN) announced that it will expand its same-day delivery service to more than 1,000 U.S. cities and is expected to expand to 2,300 locations by the end of the year, demonstrating its determination to accelerate its assault on the fresh food e-commerce market. The new service covers perishables such as milk, meat, and fruits and is open to non-Prime users. Amazon's move put pressure on competitors such as Instacart, Walmart (WMT), and Kroger (KR), and the shares of relevant companies fell. Amazon has also simultaneously invested US$4 billion to strengthen its rural logistics layout in the United States, integrate Whole Foods with its own logistics network, and increase user repurchase rates and fresh food penetration rates.

• Daily delivery of fresh food expands to thousands of cities across the United States
  亚马逊同日配送服务现已涵盖1,000多个城市，年底前预计扩至2,300个地点，进一步降低用户购买门槛。

• Prime members enjoy preferential rates
  Prime用户消费满25美元可免费配送，非会员则需支付12.99美元运费，反映亚马逊拉拢新会员策略。

• Shock to competitors, stock prices plummet
  Instacart (CART) 股价大跌12.4%，DoorDash (DASH) 跌4.8%，Walmart跌2.3%，市场担忧市占遭侵蚀。

• Integrate Whole Foods to accelerate restructuring
  亚马逊正将Whole Foods整并入主力配送系统，推进线上生鲜一体化策略，简化购物流程。

• Invest US$4 billion to expand logistics network
  为强化在偏乡与次要城市的配送能力，亚马逊加码投资40亿美元，扩大即日与隔日配送范围至4,000个地区。

 

Cryptocurrency exchange Bullish New York Stock Exchange listed sharply, with a valuation exceeding US$13.2 billion

The share price of cryptocurrency trading platform Bullish (BLSH) soared on its first day of listing on the New York Stock Exchange, soaring more than 150% from an IPO price of US$37, hitting US$118 at one point in the intraday session, and reaching a final valuation of approximately US$13.2 billion. The IPO raised US$1.11 billion, showing the market's strong confidence in a new round of mainstreaming of crypto assets. Bullish targets institutional investors, is led by a former NYSE president, and plans to convert some of its fundraising into stable currencies. With clear regulations and inflow of ETF funds, crypto assets will usher in a new wave of growth.

• Stock prices rose sharply on the first day, with a valuation exceeding US$13.2 billion
  Bullish以37美元定价，盘中最高达118美元，收盘报92.60美元，市值迅速扩张，成为继Coinbase后少见的美股挂牌加密交易所。

• IPO raised more than $1.1 billion
  本次IPO共募得11.1亿美元，初始估值约为54亿美元，为新创加密公司进入资本市场打开新局。

• Focus on institutional customers and maintain a stable operating model
  Bullish专注于机构级服务，避开散户交易波动性，预期可带来更稳定、可预测的营收来源。

• Policies benefiting the crypto market and boosting funds
  拜登政府后继由川普签署《Genius Act》规范稳定币，加上ETF资金与企业资金配置增加，推动比特币与加密市场整体上涨。

• Plan to convert some funds to stable currencies
  Bullish表示将把部分IPO所得转为稳定币部署，加强资产灵活度与法规合规性，并积极申请纽约州BitLicense执照。

 

Google adds $9 billion to expand U.S. AI and cloud facilities and accelerates local deployment

Alphabet's Google (GOOGL) announced that it will invest US$9 billion in the next two years to build a new data center and expand existing facilities in Oklahoma, USA, to strengthen AI and cloud computing infrastructure. The investment is part of its plan to increase capital expenditures to US$85 billion this year, showing that technology giants continue to spend heavily to expand computing power amid intensified AI competition. At the same time, Google has also committed to investing US$1 billion to promote AI education and skills training, and has worked with more than 100 universities to further deploy the talent ecosystem.

• Expand data center to strengthen AI infrastructure
  Google将在Stillwater新建资料中心园区，并扩建Pryor设施，进一步提升在美AI与云端算力部署。

• Total capital expenditures increased to $85 billion
  Google将2025年全年资本支出从750亿美元上调至850亿美元，并预告明年将持续扩增。

• Education and talent investment are carried out simultaneously
  Google承诺投入10亿美元于AI教育，逾100所大学已签约合作，打造AI技能培训网络。

• Responding to the Trump administration's promotion of local manufacturing
  本次扩建计划呼应美国总统川普鼓励AI本土化与基础设施投资的政策方向，与微软、辉达 (NVDA)、Micron等同步加码。

• Accelerate layout in the face of pressure from Chinese capital and investors
  在中美科技竞争与投资人对AI回报期待升高的双重压力下，Google持续扩张被视为维持领先优势的关键策略。