[U.S. Stocks Pre-market] Employment and interest rate cut expectations intertwined, and futures rose slightly (2025.09.04)

Employment data is ahead, expectations for interest rate cuts are heating up, and the market is more but cautious

U.S. stock futures were slightly higher before the market in Taiwan, as investors focused on both employment data and corporate news tonight. Nasdaq futures rose about 0.3%, S & P 500 futures rose about 0.2%, and Dow Jones futures were nearly flat. Technology stocks led the gains in the previous trading day, with the S & P 500 up 0.51%, Nasdaq up 1.03%, and Dow Jones down slightly. Bitcoin fell below US$111,000, international gold prices retreated from historical highs to below US$3,600 per ounce, the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell, and oil prices fell by about 1.5%.

The labor market is turning moderate, and two employment data are attracting attention tonight

JOLTS job vacancies fell to approximately 7.18 million in July, the second time since the end of 2020 that it fell below 7.2 million, indicating that the labor market continues to cool. ADP private employment was announced at 20:15 Taiwan time tonight, and the market expects growth to slow down in August; unemployment benefits received at 20:30 last week are also expected to rise slightly. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% tomorrow night, and the employment and wage path will influence the market's interpretation of the economic cooling.

The high probability of interest rate cuts coexists with long-term fluctuations, and asset prices are divided

CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate cut in September is about 96.6%, but global long-term bond yields have previously risen, reflecting doubts about the fiscal and monetary paths of major economies. The current 10-year U.S. bond yield rate has fallen, gold has pulled back from the high end but is still relatively strong, crude oil has been weakened, and asset rotation characteristics are obvious.

The Federal Reserve Commission's personnel hearing takes place, focusing on decision-making trends and power boundaries

Trump's nominee Stephen Miran attended a Senate Banking Committee hearing tonight, focusing on his views on inflation, labor market and balance sheet policies. Miran was nominated to replace Kugler, who resigned, for the remainder of his term until the end of January next year. The FOMC will meet from September 16 to 17, adding policy observations to board seats and position discussions.

Tariff litigation accelerates hearing requests, and trade uncertainty resurfaces

The Trump administration has asked the Supreme Court to quickly accept the appeal to review multiple decisions of lower courts that found tariffs exceeded its authority, with the goal of deciding whether to accept the case before September 10 and arguing it in November. Once the lower-level judgment is upheld, some existing tariffs may face cancellation or adjustment, cost assessments of transnational supply chains and enterprises need to be re-priced, and policy trends will become short-term risk factors.

Technology boost continues and European stocks are under pressure, international market signals are divided

U.S. stocks benefited from a court ruling last night that Google could keep its Chrome browser, and technology buying returned; most Asian markets followed suit, with Japanese stocks performing relatively prominently. However, Europe's Stoxx 600 fell about 1.47%, dragged down by technology and tourism-related stocks, indicating that differences in sensitivity to interest rates, growth and regulation remain high among different regions.

Cloud leader financial forecasts turn conservative, software stocks are under pressure before the market

Salesforce(CRM) reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter of US$2.91, and revenue increased by 10% year-on-year to US$10.24 billion, both better than expectations; however, the third-quarter earnings per share forecast for US$1.60 to US$1.62 under U.S. accounting standards was lower than the market consensus of US$1.83, and the revenue outlook was also soft. Stock prices fell more than 7% before the market, and have fallen back by about 23% since the beginning of the year. The sentiment of cloud and enterprise software communities has been affected.

AI theme heat is not reduced, Botong financial report focuses on China exposure and demand

Broadcom(AVGO) will announce its third-quarter results for the fiscal year after U.S. stock market hours, which will be announced early tomorrow morning in Taiwan time. Driven by the demand for AI data centers, Broadcom's share price has still risen by about 30% this year, with a slight increase of less than 1% before the market. The market is concerned about whether the uncertainty of sales in China mentioned previously by NVDA emerges in Broadcom's performance or outlook, and also pay attention to whether orders from Netcom, accelerators and ASIC can continue to support.

Export regulations to China are tightened, and the semiconductor supply chain enters an adjustment period

The United States has revoked some rapid customs clearance benefits for TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung, and the relevant export exemptions to mainland China will expire on December 31. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM) confirmed this change and the market was concerned about the impact on the pace of operations and capital expenditures in China. The equipment side has also attracted attention, including Applied Materials(AMAT), Lam Research(LRCX) and KLA(KLAC), which may increase the threshold for mid-to-middle shipments, and the industrial chain needs to absorb normative changes.

Policy and industry messages are intertwined, and technology giants are dynamically influencing emotions

Alphabet (GOOGL) antitrust lawsuit resulted in avoiding the split of Chrome, boosting the trend of technology stocks the previous day. Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) will end Prime's invited share free shipping program on October 1 and continue to adjust its membership rights and cost structure. Tonight, Taiwan time, the White House Rose Garden holds a technology and business leaders event, and the tone of science and technology policy and supervision have become an extended topic on the panel. There is also market discussion about Apple's (Apple, AAPL) pricing strategy in the tariff environment, and the cost transmission ability of hardware brands is still receiving attention.

Pre-market indicators and commodity trends diverged, and risk appetite rebounded moderately

Futures index rose slightly, reflecting continued expectations for interest rate cuts and technology themes; gold prices fell from highs but remained in historical range, oil prices were weak and digital assets cooled. Overall, tonight's two employment data and the Federal Reserve Commission's personnel hearing provide immediate clues that non-agricultural farming will become the key to short-term fluctuations in the tone the next day. Investors continue to measure the depth of economic cooling, policy rhythm and corporate profit resilience. Pre-market sentiment is positive but still retains flexibility and wait-and-see.