[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Pre-market keywords of the day (2025.09.12)

Pressure after high point, weak futures, fund focus on interest rate path and AI kinetic energy

After major indexes hit highs overnight, most pre-market futures in Taiwan fell. Market sentiment shifted from chasing prices to assessing fundamental changes driven by next week's Fed decisions and enterprise-side AI. Yields rebounded from the previous day's lows, oil and gold rose, and Bitcoin continued to strengthen, reflecting the coexistence of risk appetite and safe-haven demand. Overall, interest rate signals and large-scale technology news became the main axis before the opening bell.

Futures fell back, technology fell against decline

Dow Jones industrial index futures fell about 0.2%, S & P 500 futures were weak, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose slightly, indicating the relative resilience of growth stock momentum. The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose slightly before the market, falling back to around 4% in the previous trading day and then rebounded. Crude oil and gold futures rose simultaneously, and energy and precious metals stocks attracted attention before the session.

Inflation is hot, employment turns cold, and interest rate cuts are expected to be supported

In August, the CPI increased by 0.4% monthly and 2.9% year-on-year. The monthly increase was slightly higher than market expectations by 0.1 percentage points. The monthly and annual increases in core inflation were in line with expectations. At the same time, the number of people receiving initial jobless benefits in the United States rose to a nearly four-year high last week, indicating that signs of a cooling in the labor market have strengthened. The combination of data has kept the market looking for at least a 1-yard interest rate cut next week, but investors are more concerned about the Fed's comments on the economic and inflation outlook.

Policy and regulatory variables, Europe remains inactive and the US risks remain uneliminated

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 2%, which is in line with high expectations and helps maintain stability in European stocks and global risky assets. In the United States, Trump sought the Court of Appeal's request to remove Federal Reserve Commissioner Lisa Cook, hoping to announce it before the decision-making meeting and trigger market discussions on policy independence. Another report pointed out that Trump asked the EU to impose a tariff of up to 100% on China and India purchasing Russian oil. The EU is considered unlikely to adopt it, but the relevant message has brought uncertainty to global trade.

European stocks continue to rise, US debt and global risk sentiment intertwined

Europe's Stoxx 600 rose 0.55% in the previous trading day, echoing the atmosphere of U.S. stocks hitting new highs. U.S. bond yields fell first and then rebounded, reflecting the tug of war between inflation and employment data. The detailed trend of the interest rate curve still dominates cross-asset evaluations. In this context, U.S. stocks tended to wait and see before the market, waiting for clearer policy guidance.

Raw materials and encryption are strengthening, and funding signals are divided

The rise in international oil prices has provided support for energy stocks but also deepened their sensitivity to inflation; the rise in gold prices shows that there is still demand for safe haven. Bitcoin rose to more than $115,000, and appetite for risky assets continued in the crypto market. Funds flow at the same time as risk and safe-haven assets, reflecting hedging against short-term macro variables.

OpenAI architecture adjustments, Microsoft moves higher before the market

Microsoft(MSFT) signed a non-binding memorandum with OpenAI, opening the way for OpenAI to restructure its non-profit parent into a for-profit company;OpenAI said that the non-profit parent is expected to hold more than US$100 billion in equivalent equity and will become one of the most well-resourced public welfare organizations. The EU agreed to Microsoft's plan to split Teams from Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and Outlook for corporate users, so that it could avoid the risk of fines, driving Microsoft's pre-market increase of more than 1%.

AI demand drives up revenue, Adobe's financial forecast is revised upwards

Adobe(Adobe, ADBE) rose about 3% in pre-market trading after previously reporting better-than-expected third-quarter results for its fiscal year, benefiting from AI product sales exceeding expectations. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $5.31 and revenue rose 11 percent year-over-year to a record $5.99 billion, both above analysts 'estimates. The CEO said that this year's "AI-first" revenue target has been reached ahead of schedule, and the company has simultaneously raised its full-year revenue and profit outlook, highlighting the expansion of demand for content production and marketing automation.

Merger rumors continue, Warner Bros. exploration continues

Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD) rose another about 6% in pre-market trading, having risen 29% the day before. The Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount Skydance is preparing a comprehensive, cash-based bid covering the entire WBD, which had previously proposed splitting film studios and streaming from the cable network. Paramount Global(PARA) also rose about 1% before the market. It is rumored that if there are new developments, the imagination of the integration of the media and streaming ecosystem will expand.

Tariff costs rise, RH revised down to increase full-year revenue

RH(RH Home, RH) fell about 8% before the market, with second-quarter revenue of US$899.2 million, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and adjusted earnings per share of US$2.93 fell short of expectations. The company lowered its full-year revenue growth forecast for 2025 from 10% to 13% to 9% to 11%, and alleges that due to the impact of tariff costs of US$30 million, the launch of its new product line has been delayed. The seesaw between demand for high-end homes and cost pressures has made the market cautious about high-priced consumption momentum.

Retail investors are hot again, and the risk of volatility in meme stocks is rising

JPMorgan pointed out four U.S. stocks that have been discussed by the community, which may experience sharp fluctuations due to retail funds and short covering. Although they were not named, sporadic and abnormally heavy stocks have appeared in pre-market trading. After the main index hit highs, the impact of fluctuations in such theme stocks on market sentiment needs to be vigilant.

Trading attention returns to the Federal Reserve, and the opening rhythm depends on the pulse of interest rates and earnings reports

Overall, the pressure before the opening bell came from high-end shocks and a rebound in yield rates, but AI-driven results and large-scale technology news provided downward support. Investors today paid attention to the pull of U.S. bond yields and oil and gold trends on stock rotation, and continued to track pre-market changes in stocks such as Microsoft, Adobe, WBD and RH. As next week's decision-making meeting approaches, policy communication and forward-looking guidance remain the core clues that affect risky assets.