Market analysis美股延续半导体关税压力降低及苹果（AAPL）加码投资的乐观情绪，上周五早盘小幅开高。随后，联准会副主席鲍曼强调，应主动降息以防止就业与经济活动进一步恶化，并指出近期通膨风险已降低，关税影响有限。综合以上，结合财报基本面及技术面拉回有买盘支撑，美股主要指数全数收红，那指更是再创历史新高。类股方面，information technology领涨，半导体关税不确定性消除推动科技硬体与设备类股劲扬，苹果上涨 4.2%、美光（MU）反弹 6.3%、辉达（NVDA）上涨 1.1% 表现强劲；communication Services涨势集中在龙头股，包括 Alphabet（GOOGL）上涨 2.5%、Meta（META）上涨 1.0%、Netflix（NFLX）走扬 2.6%；financial stocks也有所回升，美国银行（BAC）上涨 2.4%、Visa（V）走高 1.4%。相对弱势的类股则包括real estate与utilities，反映利率与避险需求下滑。

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

Federal Reserve Bowman supports three interest rate cuts in 2025, weak employment data deepens labor market concerns

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bowman said the latest employment data showed a weak labor market, further supporting her persistent forecast since December last year that three interest rate cuts are suitable this year. She stressed that interest rates should be actively cut to prevent further deterioration in employment and economic activity, and pointed out that the risk of inflation has been reduced in the near future and the impact of tariffs is limited. Last month, she and Waller were one of two members who opposed keeping interest rates unchanged. Bowman believes that with housing demand falling to lows since the financial crisis and the labor market no longer driving up inflation, gradual easing of policies can reduce the risk of forced major adjustments in the future.

• Weak employment data triggers a shift in policy stance
  7月美国失业率升至4.2%（接近4.3%），过去三个月平均新增就业仅35,000，远低于稳定就业所需的水准。

• Continue to be optimistic about three interest rate cuts during the year
  鲍曼自去年底起便预测今年降息三次，并在6月会议已开始呼吁提前行动以对冲劳动市场恶化风险。

• Inflation pressure weakens
  剔除关税相关商品价格后，核心PCE年增率接近2%目标，低于官方6月数据的2.8%。

• Policy background and political factors
  在特朗普政府持续施压放松货币政策并寻找鲍威尔接班人的背景下，部分决策者态度已趋鸽派。

• Gradually relax to prevent excessive corrections
  鲍曼认为，目前中度紧缩的政策应适度放松，以降低未来因劳动市场急剧恶化而需大幅降息的风险。

U.S. retail money drives a new wave of gains on Wall Street, and institutional participation is relatively low

The U.S. stock market has recently hit new highs, driven by retail investors rather than traditional "smart money." Goldman Sachs data showed that retail investors accounted for 12.63% of capital flows in the S & P 500 last week, the highest since February and higher than the average in recent years. Barclays estimates that retail investors have invested more than $50 billion in global stocks in the past month, and optimism continues to heat. In a Morgan Stanley survey, 62% of retail investors are bullish on U.S. stocks, and 66% expect the stock market to continue to rise at the end of the quarter, setting a new high since the survey. In addition, the financing balance exceeded US$1 trillion, and zero-maturity option (0DTE) transactions accounted for more than 60%, indicating that the market is still highly speculative. U.S. regulatory policies may be further relaxed, lowering the threshold for retail investors to enter high-risk transactions, but also increasing potential risks.

• The proportion of retail funds rises
  高盛数据显示，散户上周在标普500交易流量中占比12.63%，接近近年罕见的13%高位。

• Capital flow and confidence increase simultaneously
  巴克莱估算，散户近一个月投入全球股市超过500亿美元，摩根士丹利调查中看多比例与涨幅预期双创纪录。

• Active speculative trading
  0DTE选择权在标普500交易中占比逾60%，热门标的包括Krispy Kreme (DNUT)、GoPro (GPRO) 与Kohl’s (KSS)。

• Increased leverage risk
  美国股市融资余额首度突破1兆美元，分析指出散户是主要推升力量，市场过热疑虑增加。

• Deregulation helps and risks coexist
  政府拟放宽散户交易限制，包括允许401(k)投资私募股权、降低日内交易保证金门槛至2,000美元。

industry

AI hits the programming job market, and coding training camps accelerate their decline

Rapid progress in generative AI is disrupting the software development industry, especially by replacing a large number of entry-level developer positions and plunging the Coding Bootcamp, which has provided career opportunities for people from non-traditional backgrounds for more than a decade. Recruitment of new graduates has dropped 50% since 2019, and the proportion of people who find full-time technical jobs within six months of graduating from some training camps has dropped from 83% in 2021 to 37% in 2023. AI's efficient performance in the field of coding, coupled with market saturation, overseas recruitment and corporate employment standards returning to the orientation of prestigious schools, have brought the golden age of this industry to an end. Although some training camps try to transform and train mid-to-high-level AI application capabilities, the employment prospects are still bleak for junior job seekers who lack academic qualifications and experience.

• AI weakens the needs of junior developers
  生成式AI可快速撰写与调试程式码，令企业对初级工程师需求急剧下降，成为Bootcamp毕业生求职困境的主因。

• Employment data shows industry downturn
  Codesmith 2023年兼职课程毕业生六个月内就业率仅37%，远低于2021年同期的83%。

• Market structural changes
  科技公司招聘重回名校导向，精英学校毕业生成为人才主要来源，Bootcamp原有的多元化人才输送角色被削弱。

• Great changes in the industry and polarization of talents
  初级岗位萎缩的同时，高端AI研究人才年薪与奖金可达1亿美元，显示技能分化趋势加剧。

• Training camp attempts AI transformation
  部分机构推出AI技术领导力课程，面向中高阶工程师，但对缺乏经验的新手帮助有限。

stocks

Trump asks Intel CEO Chen Liwu to step down, triggering uncertainty about transformation plans

U.S. President Trump accused Intel (INTC) CEO Chen Liwu of being "highly conflicted" because of his ties with China companies and demanded that he resign immediately. Previously, Senator Tom Cotton questioned his investments and his record of China-China transactions during Cadence Design's tenure. Analysts believe that the incident may distract Chen Liwu's attention and delay the transformation strategy of cutting costs and focusing on core products. Chen Liwu has denied any illegal activities and stressed that his career for more than 40 years has always adhered to the highest legal and moral standards. Intel's board of directors expressed support for the current transformation plan, but the market is concerned that political pressure and additional scrutiny will undermine investor confidence.

• Political pressure rises
  Trump在Truth Social指谭「高度冲突」，呼吁其下台，并对其与中国企业的关系表达安全疑虑。

• Historical background and controversy
  谭曾任Cadence Design CEO，该公司近日承认在其任内向中国军事大学出售产品并支付1.4亿美元和解金。

• Risk of obstruction of transformation plans
  陈立武上任仅半年，正推动削减非核心业务并专注少数产品，若辞职恐延误必要改革。

• Contradictions between industry and policy
  Trump主张加大国内晶片制造投资，但陈立武缩减在俄亥俄州等地新厂计划，与其政策存在分歧。

• Investor wait-and-see sentiment
  分析师警告，长期争议恐侵蚀信心，英特尔股价今年持平，去年则累计下跌近三分之二。

Tesla obtains operating license in Texas, Robotaxi can launch driverless passenger services statewide

Tesla Robotaxi LLC, a subsidiary of Tesla (TSLA), has obtained a Texas Transportation Network Company operating license, valid until August 6, 2026, allowing it to launch ride-hailing services including autonomous vehicles statewide. Since June, Tesla has carried out small-scale trial operations with Model Y equipped with some autonomous driving systems in Austin, and currently has human safety officers involved at any time. The new license does not require safe drivers to remain in the car, paving the way for Tesla to expand its autonomous driving business. However, incidents such as running red lights and failing to stop at railway crossings occurred during the trial operation, which attracted federal regulatory attention. Texas will also implement a new law this year that requires autonomous driving to obtain state approval and meet safety standards before operating. Tesla's autonomous driving project faces multiple investigations, lawsuits and recalls in the United States, and the market still questions its implementation time and safety.

• Obtained statewide operating qualification in Texas
  Tesla Robotaxi LLC获准作为「运输网络公司」营运，涵盖含自动驾驶车辆的商业载客服务。

• Existing operating models
  奥斯汀试点采用Model Y搭配部分自动驾驶，并配备安全员与远程监控中心。

• Security incidents and regulatory pressures
  已有违规行驶事件被拍摄并通报监管机构，虽无重大损害，但引发NHTSA关注。

• New Texas law is about to take effect
  2025年新法规定无人驾驶需获州核准，并赋予州府撤销不符安全标准公司的权力。

• Market competition and backwardness
  虽获许可，特斯拉在Robotaxi领域仍落后于Alphabet旗下Waymo与中国百度Apollo Go。