[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Pre-market keywords of the day (2025.09.18)

The interest rate cut was implemented, but the message was hawkish, and the mood turned to wait-and-see before the opening.

Early this morning in Taiwan time, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by one yard as expected, but the pace of medium-and long-term interest rate cuts conveyed by the dot chart is more conservative than that of the market, and Bauer set the tone with risk management and control, suppressing risk appetite. U.S. stocks diverged in the previous trading day. The pre-market focus returned to whether employment lead data and policy signals alleviated uncertainty, while focusing on the spillover impact of Vitek's policy variables in the China market on AI themes.

The tone of the Federal Reserve's risk management continues, and the dot chart limits the imagination of cutting interest rates in the year after next.

The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate range to 4% to 4.25%, and the decision was almost unanimous. New director Stephen Miran advocated a two-yard rate cut as the only objection. The dot chart shows that another two yards are still expected this year, but there will be only one interest rate cut in 2026, which is more conservative than the market's original bet. Officials have become more divided on the path next year, reflecting the uncertain economic outlook. Powell defined the rate cut as risk management, which means prioritizing reducing tail risks rather than responding to urgent pressures on employment or growth.

Stock index diverged on the eve of the night before, growth and value were shuttled in the short term

Against the background that interest rate cuts had been fully reflected, the S & P 500 fell slightly 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend and rose 0.6% and hit an intraday high. The market shows that funds are racing between growth and value stocks, and are biased towards defense in the short term. Investors wait for clearer policy and data guidance before deciding whether to expand risk positions.

The employment leading data is focused before the market is released, and the cooling of the labor market is under review

The number of people receiving initial unemployment benefits in the United States last week was released at 8:30 p.m. Taiwan time. The market is concerned about whether the number of applicants and renewals will continue the moderate trend of recent months. If the labor market shows continued cooling, it will help alleviate core inflationary pressures and provide more legitimacy for the Fed to cut interest rates in a "risk management" manner; on the contrary, if the data is unexpectedly strong, adjustments to interest rate expectations may once again suppress valuation-sensitive growth stocks.

China's policies affect AI themes, and the restriction of Huida's China special regulations card triggers supply and demand assessments

The Financial Times reported that Beijing has asked companies not to buy the RTX Pro600D customized by Vidia for the China market. Huang Renxun, CEO of NVDA, expressed disappointment. This move will increase uncertainty in the AI and high-performance workstation market in China. Investors will assess the impact on Vitek's shipping structure and product portfolio in China, and whether it will drive alternative solutions or local supply chain demand. Policy variables may increase the volatility of AI-related stocks in the short term, but the pace of global cloud and data center capital expenditures remains the focus of observation.

Policy signals are neutral and hawkish, and interest rates and valuation-sensitive stocks are the focus of observation

As the dot matrix limits the space for medium-and long-term interest rate cuts, the impact of the path of long-term interest rates on stock market valuation is even more amplified. If U.S. bond yields remain high-level and volatile before and during the session, defense and high-dividend groups such as utilities and telecommunications will be relatively resilient; growth technology stocks will rely more on subsequent data and corporate fundamentals to support evaluations. Pre-market emotional tendencies are event-and data-oriented, with limited momentum for chasing prices.

European stocks were generally flat and wait-and-see, with individual event-driven fluctuations expanding

Europe's Stoxx 600 nearly closed flat on the eve of the day, indicating that global risk appetite has entered a digestive period after the Fed's decision. However, the volatility of individual stocks has heated up, and Puma has surged by more than 15% due to reports of possible privatization, highlighting that the theme of capital operations can still create excessive volatility in neutral market conditions. For U.S. stocks, event-driven and intra-industry fundamental differences remain the focus of pre-market screening.

The trend of the US dollar and crude oil is attracting attention, and the internal performance of the industry may be divided

Although there are no signs of extreme changes, the intraday direction of the US dollar index and oil prices will still affect the marginal trends of different industries. A stronger US dollar usually puts headwinds on technology and industries, which account for a high proportion of overseas revenue. Rising oil prices may compress the cost structure of aviation and transportation, benefiting the upper and middle reaches of energy relatively. Observing cross-asset contexts before the market helps grasp the rhythm of sector rotation.

Trump's visit to Britain adds policy noise, and the market pays attention to U.S. -UK economic and regulatory signals

U.S. President Trump launches his national visit to the United Kingdom. In addition to royal courtesy, the market is paying more attention to whether bilateral dialogues on defense, science and technology and financial services regulations reveal direction. Although the short-term direct impact on asset prices is limited, any statement involving supply chain security or digital supervision may change assumptions about medium-and long-term cross-border investment and corporate layout.

AI and financial technology themes continue to be popular, and capital flows still depend on fundamental verification

The global financial technology landscape continues to be restructured. CNBC and Statista have released a list of the top 150 FinTech companies in the UK, once again highlighting the UK's agglomeration advantages in the financial services and venture capital ecosystem. For U.S. stocks, the popularity of the subject matter needs to be supported by financial reports and user growth data. Before the market, attention should be paid to whether funds flow back from high valuation concepts to stable cash flow targets, or to mid-sized stocks that have undergone evaluation revisions.

Pre-market stock radar focuses on AI supply chains and interest-rate sensitive groups, providing clues to changes in volume and energy.

During the staggered period of policy and data, individual stocks with abnormally large pre-market trading volume often reflect the intraday main line in advance. Due to the news of China's policies, the AI supply chain is at both ends of the convergence or hedging of funds with interest-sensitive real estate investment trusts and high-dividend utilities. Investors can pay attention to the volume and price structure and order depth in the first five to ten minutes before and after the opening of the market to identify whether there is any sign that a single theme dominates the market throughout the day.

Short-term strategies return to discipline to control risks, patiently wait for the signal to be clear

In an environment where interest rate cuts have been implemented and the path is conservative, market pricing has entered into rebalancing, and the willingness to chase gains in the short term has been suppressed. If the employment leadership data at night in Taiwan time and subsequent official conversations can reduce uncertainty, risk appetite is expected to gradually be restored; if the signal continues to be blurred, the market may continue to have structural rotation. Overall, the main tone before the opening bell is wait-and-see and risk management, waiting for data and policy messages to provide clearer direction.

Conclusion The general view of advance is that interest rate cut is not a reversal of wind direction but a risk mitigation.

This round of interest rate cuts is more like insurance against tail risks than a starting point for comprehensive easing. The medium-and long-term interest rate cut space is limited and narrowed by the dot matrix. Evaluation support needs to return to corporate profits and cash flow, and the advantages and disadvantages within the industry will become more obvious. Based on the comprehensive judgment of pre-market signals, U.S. stocks opened in a neutral mood today, with the focus on employment data, market responses to AI policy news, and the impact of cross-asset trends on stock rotation.