[U.S. Stocks Pre-market] Fed resolution approaches, futures rise slightly (2025.09.15)

Federal Reserve resolution is imminent, technological risk appetite remains but news is divided

Before the Fed's interest rate decision this week, U.S. stock futures rose slightly before the market, and the weight of technology continued to be strong last week, but differences in news from individual stocks affected emotions. The market is concerned about the probability of interest rate cuts and the wording of policy statements, while also observing China's antitrust investigation into Nvidia, the progress of TikTok's asset disposal, and the impact of Tesla's founders increasing their stock price before the market. On the cross-asset front, oil prices rose, gold prices fell, U.S. bond yields did not change much, and Bitcoin fell slightly below US$115,000.

Policy stress tests ahead, Fed statement and press conference become key

The focus is still on the Federal Reserve's resolution after this week's meeting and the chairman's press conference. The market focuses on whether interest rates will cut interest rates and signals future policy paths. The decision is scheduled to be announced in the early morning of September 18, Taiwan time. Investors should pay attention to the change in terms of inflation and growth assessments, as this will affect the pricing of interest rate paths before the end of the year. The pre-market change in the 10-year U.S. bond yield rate was limited, indicating that funds tend to wait and see ahead of major events.

Futures and bulk movements are moderate, with more risky assets but not chasing prices

S & P 500 futures rose about 0.2%, while Nasdaq and Dow Jones futures rose slightly in the same direction. Last week, Nasdaq wrote another closing high. Crude oil futures rose, reflecting tight supply and demand expectations and rising risk premiums. Gold futures fell slightly and safe-haven demand fell slightly. Bitcoin fell slightly below the US$115,000 mark, indicating that the momentum of risky assets continues but has limited intensity.

Technology stocks led the gains and continued, with the index hitting five consecutive highs last week

Technology stocks led the way last week, with Nasdaq rising about 2% weekly, outperforming the S & P 500's 1.6% and Dow Jones's 1%. The market continues to respond to AI-related investment and corporate cooperation themes. Oracle has been greatly stimulated by the theme of cooperation with OpenAI, driving the previous outstanding performance of related supply chains. If the Federal Reserve releases an easing trend, the discounted cash flow assumption for growth assets will be more favorable, and the relative strength of technology weights is expected to continue, but the volatility may also increase.

Huida encounters regulatory shadow, antitrust investigation suppresses semiconductor sentiment

Nvidia(NVDA) was accused by China's State Administration for Market Regulation that its acquisition of Mellanox in 2020 violated local antitrust laws, and further investigations have been launched. After the news came out, Fuida fell about 1.5% before the session, affecting the sentiment of high-cost-earnings semiconductor communities. The case occurred as U.S. and Chinese officials were conducting tariff and economic and trade negotiations in Madrid. Science and technology supervision and trade issues were intertwined, adding an uncertainty premium to the market in the short term.

TikTok disposal progress accelerates, and key issues are included in U.S. -China negotiations

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the United States and China are close to reaching a solution on the TikTok issue, which may involve divesting from ByteDance and be linked to other trade demands. According to foreign reports, Bessent stressed that he would not sacrifice national security considerations for a social platform. U.S. and Chinese officials have launched a new round of talks in Madrid, Spain, on trade cooperation and TikTok's disposal. If a path can be formed, it will help reduce policy uncertainty on large technology platforms.

Musk has made a big move to increase the price, Tesla has skipped the market to drive the theme of electric vehicles

Tesla(Tesla, TSLA) rose about 8% before trading as Chief Executive Musk spent about $1 billion on Friday to buy about 2.57 million shares in batches, the largest increase since February 2020, according to U.S. regulatory filings. The company is also seeking shareholder approval for Musk's high compensation package, linked to long-term operations and market capitalization goals. The market interprets management overweight as a confidence signal on fundamentals and prospects, driving electric vehicles and related supply chain stocks to follow the uptrend.

Medical insurance regulatory risks rise, and United Health attracts policy attention

As UnitedHealth Group(UNH) faces a criminal investigation in Washington into its Medicare Advantage business, media reports have significantly increased its hiring of lobbyists and legal advisers close to the Trump administration, and has met with top White House officials to discuss medical and other issues. Uncertainty about policy regulation has put pressure on medical insurance stocks, with investors focusing on any further information related to investigation progress, payment specifications or rate adjustments.

AI investment chain extends to the UK, and the theme of data center expansion continues to heat up

Market sources said that Viida and OpenAI are discussing investing in the UK to support the construction of local data centers, which may reach billions of dollars, although no decision has yet been made. If it takes shape, it is expected to strengthen the UK's capabilities in AI computing and cloud infrastructure, and has positive implications for the medium and long-term needs of servers, Netcom and high-end chip supply chains. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the impact of regulatory and information security requirements on the investment schedule.

European stocks and the British economy are weak, and the external environment is still influential

Britain's FTSE 100 fell slightly 0.15% last Friday as the country's economy showed zero growth in July and signs of weak economic momentum in Europe remained. During the European Auto Show, China electric vehicle brands actively expanded the local market. Changes in the competitive landscape affected the evaluation of traditional European car manufacturers and also affected the medium-term strategy of the global automobile supply chain. Changes in external prosperity and industrial competition still have a key impact on the revenue mix and profit margins of U.S. stock multinational companies.

Differences between raw materials and safe-haven assets, and unilateral bets are not available on funds

The upward trend in oil prices reflects tight supply and geopolitical risks. The small drop in gold prices indicates a slight decline in safe-haven demand. The U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields fluctuated near the same level, indicating that there were no unilateral bets on funds before the Federal Reserve decision. The relative performance and convergence of volatility across assets indicate a stable opening sentiment, but more sensitive to unexpected messages.

Crypto assets were dynamic last week, risk appetite but fundamentals still to be verified

Gemini Space Station, a crypto trading platform in New York, rose about 14.3% on its first day of listing, and still lost US$283 million in the first half of the year, indicating that the capital market has increased willingness to take thematic risks, but remains cautious about the sustainability of its profit model. Bitcoin prices tested back below $115,000, and short-term momentum slowed down.

Focus today, data and conversation window before resolution

Ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, the market was concerned about whether high-frequency economic data would talk to officials today to send new signals, especially the latest assessments on inflation and the labor market. From the corporate perspective, pre-market fluctuations in Tesla and Vitek may affect the performance of electric vehicles and semiconductor stocks, and UnitedHealth's policy risks may also spread among the medical insurance community. The progress of economic and trade negotiations between the United States and China in Madrid and TikTok has simultaneously affected the evaluation of multinational technology platforms and supply chains.

Pre-market key stocks and futures, technology and policy themes dual main lines

Standard & Poor's 500 futures rose slightly by about 0.2%, while Nasdaq and Dow Jones futures were simultaneously higher; Tesla rose about 8% before the market was the hot spot, and Vitek fell about 1.5% due to regulatory news. The structure of stronger energy and falling gold reflects a positive tone for risky assets but more sensitive to policy and geographical news. Overall, market expectations before the opening of the market were dominated by the Federal Reserve Commission resolutions, and technology and policy themes became the two main lines of trading that day.