Internet reports that on May 30, the United States will announce the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator-the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) tonight. The market expects the PCE price index to increase month-on-month in April to be only 0.1%, and the year-on-year growth rate will drop from 2.3% to 2.2%, approaching the level before the COVID-19 epidemic. On the core side, the month-on-month growth rate of core PCE excluding food and energy price fluctuations is expected to be 0.1%, but the year-on-year growth rate will remain at a high level of 2.6%. Currently, the PCE is important because the Federal Reserve prefers to use it to measure potential trends in inflation. Analysis pointed out that the inflationary effect of the Trump administration's tariff increases has just begun to penetrate into the U.S. economy. Most economists predict that even if Trump relaxes some tariffs, inflation could rebound to 3% in a few months. As the core PCE of the United States has been stuck in the 2.8%-2.6% range for six consecutive months, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window is closing. Although some Fed officials remain positive about interest rate cuts, the interest rate futures market shows that traders 'forecasts for the probability of a rate cut in September have plummeted to 47% from 68% a week ago. They also predict that the U.S. economy is at the crossroads of a new inflation cycle. (Jin Shi)