Societe Generale: Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, causing short-term interest rates to fall, tariffs and fiscal deficits to push up long-term interest rates
According to online reports, Societe Generale predicts that by the end of 2025, the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds will rise to 4.5%, while the yield on 2-year U.S. bonds will fall to 3.5%. The reason is that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates and lower short-term interest rates, but it will also increase the demand for long-term treasury bonds by stimulating the economy and increasing fiscal deficits, leading to an increase in long-term yields. In addition, Trump's tariff plan may push up inflation expectations, and the U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of treasury bonds in response to fiscal deficits, which will push up yields.
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