Federal Reserve minutes: Commodity prices are expected to rise less than previously expected
According to online reports, the Federal Reserve released minutes of its July meeting, which mentioned that staff's forecast for real GDP growth from this year to 2027 is similar to the forecast made at the June meeting, which reflects the offsetting effect of multiple outlook revisions. Staff expect that the cost of imported goods, including tariffs, will rise less than previously forecast and will be delayed; in addition, financial conditions are expected to provide a slightly stronger support for output growth. However, these positive impacts on the economic outlook were offset by weaker-than-expected spending data and a lower-than-assumed pull on population growth by net immigration. Workers still expect the labor market to weaken, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise above the natural unemployment rate estimated by staff around the end of this year and remain above the natural unemployment rate until 2027.
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