Technology is under pressure before the Federal Reserve resolution, Dow Jones is fighting against the decline.

U.S. stocks diverged intraday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising and technology equity weak, as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will launch its first interest rate cut this year and wait for subsequent path signals. Among the four major indexes, Dow Jones temporarily reported 45,986.69, up 0.50%, S & P 500 temporarily reported 6,595.14, down 0.18%, Nasdaq temporarily reported 22,221.69, down 0.50%, and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index temporarily reported 6,057.21, down 0.36%.

Wait-and-see emotions suppress energy and fluctuations.

Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was released, the overall trading volume was conservative, the market's turbulence converged, and the index was high-end around historical highs. In the short term, funds flowed back from high-valuation growth themes to relatively defensive and value groups, putting Dow Jones in opposition and putting pressure on technology stocks.

Expectations for interest rate cuts are concentrated at 25 basis points and the dot matrix chart is the focus.

Federal funds rate futures show that the market's chances of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points are close to more than 90%, and bets on a larger move are extremely low. Investors pay more attention to the interest rate dot matrix released after the decision and talk to Chairman Bauer at a press conference to evaluate the number and pace of subsequent interest rate cuts, and to consider the possible relative impact of valuation-sensitive growth stocks and financial stocks.

The dispute over decision-making independence did not change the key points of the meeting.

The outside world is concerned about personnel changes and political noise in decision-making bodies, including the Senate's approval of new official Stephen Miran and the court's rejection of Trump's removal of director Lisa Cook. However, the market's focus is still back to the policy shift under inflation and employment slowdown, and it is expected that the statement and dot matrix chart will dominate the after-hours market.

The cooling of chips and AI themes has dragged down the trend of growth stocks.

Foreign news reported that China asked large technology companies to stop purchasing Nvidia AI chips customized for the local market, which hit Nvidia's intraday weakness by about 2.6%. This also put pressure on many AI beneficiary stocks and semiconductor communities, and the Fei Half Index fell simultaneously. The market's re-assessment of China's demand and shipment visibility has become one of the main reasons for today's pullback in technology stocks.

The divergence trend of individual semiconductors highlights the rotation.

In addition to the decline in Viida, AI hot stocks such as Broadcom(AVGO), Oracle(ORCL) and Palantir(PLTR) also retreated. However, Marvell Technology(Maiweir, MRVL) bucked the trend and rose 3.86%, indicating that funds are being placed on the best among chip subgroups. Overall, the news dominated short-term fluctuations, and the performance of individual stocks within the group was significantly divided.

Most large equity stocks retreated but Apple was relatively solid.

Nvidia(NVDA) weakened, Tesla(Tesla, TSLA) fell slightly, Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com(Amazon, AMZN) and Meta Platforms(META) were weak, Microsoft(MSFT) was almost flat, and Apple(Apple, AAPL) rose slightly by 0.57%. The pullback of equity stocks put pressure on the index, but Dow Jones benefited from the support of non-technology components and showed a resilient pattern.

Activist investors took stock, driving cloud software to lead the gains.

Workday(Workday, WDAY) surged 7.21%, mainly due to Elliott Investment Management revealing its shareholding of more than US$2 billion and praising existing strategies, which led to a rebound in corporate software community sentiment. Charter Communications(Charter Communications, CHTR) rose 4.21%, while Paramount Global(Paramount Global, PARA) fluctuated intraday trading, indicating that the subject of media communication is influenced by the interaction between fundamentals and funds.

News of self-driving and shared transportation triggered a strong contrast.

Lyft(Lyft, LYFT) is booming, as Alphabet's Waymo announced an expansion of cooperation to launch robotic taxi services in new cities, and the market is associated with medium-and long-term expansion of capacity and ecosystem; in contrast, Uber Technologies(UBER) fell 5.13%. Under the expectation of competition and structural changes, the short-term pressure is obvious.

China General Administration and consumer stocks have their own impact on the news.

Alibaba(Alibaba, BABA)'s U.S. Stock Depositary Receipts are rising, and the market is paying attention to reports of its cooperation with telecom terminals in AI computing power. Although General Mills(GIS) announced that quarterly revenue was better than expected, it was cautious about the consumer environment and its share price fell. Cracker Barrel(CBRL) has attracted attention in its financial report and operating updates, and the investment atmosphere in catering stocks is conservative.

Energy observation shows that funds are concentrated in news stocks.

The intraday trading volume of Workday(WDAY), Lyft(LYFT) and Nvidia(NVDA) was relatively enlarged, and price fluctuations were also higher than that of the broader market, indicating that funds were chasing event-driven targets while continuing to digest chip supply and demand and policy variables. Relatively speaking, most of the weight stocks tend to be neutral, reflecting the wait-and-see tone before the resolution.

Futures index and volatility show key signals for market bets on the future outlook.

Major stock index futures fluctuated close to spot, the VIX panic index remained in a relatively moderate range, and expectations of sudden and violent fluctuations have not yet warmed up significantly. The ten-year U.S. bond yield rate did not change much, oil and gold futures fell slightly, the U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro but weakened against the pound and yen, most of the crypto assets rose, and overall risk appetite was suppressed by policy uncertainty but did not appear. Systematic risk avoidance.

The key to the market trend still lies in the path of interest rate cuts and the tone of the conversation.

If the dot chart suggests that interest rate cuts this year and next year are limited or the tone is hawkish, the valuations of growth stocks may face rebalancing pressure; if the tone tends to be loose gradually and the assessment of employment slowdown is clearer, it is expected to relieve the pressure on high valuations and support the market. At the top end of the consolidation. Short-term attention to the Fed's statement and press conference, as well as follow-up news related to the AI supply chain and China's demand, is expected to dominate the performance structure of stocks at the end of the session and at the opening of the next day.