Market analysis

美国第二季 GDP 季增年率初值从 -0.5% 反弹至 3.0%，高于预期的 2.4%；美国 7 月 ADP 就业人数从前值 -2.3 万人跃升至 10.4 万人，同样高于预期的 7.5 万人，展现经济的强劲韧性。FOMC 会议方面如预期维持利率不变，声明中指出经济成长放缓，一度激发市场对 9 月降息的期待，然鲍尔在会后记者会重申劳动市场稳健、通膨压力犹存，压抑市场将息预期，致使美股指数午后回落，惟投资人静待重磅科技股财报公布，尾盘回升，终场道琼及标普小幅下跌，科技股为主的那指及费半收红。类股方面，公用事业受惠 American Electric Power（AEP）财报利多，带动 Constellation（CEG）、NRG Energy（NRG）同步走扬而涨幅居前；资讯科技同样表现良好，主因小摩调升辉达（NVDA）、超微（AMD）及博通（AVGO）目标价而股价上涨，以及半导体测试设备厂 Teradyne（TER）财报优预期大涨近 19%，激励半导体族群；反观房地产及原物料表现居末，前者因降息预期降温而承压，后者则受关税冲击及财报失色而拖累。盘后，Meta（META）与微软（MSFT）交出亮眼 25Q2 财报成绩单，提振市场情绪，美股期货翻红。 

Quick view of financial report

Meta's second-quarter revenue and profit significantly exceeded expectations, and its AI and advertising businesses assisted its share price soared by more than 10%

Meta (META) reported second-quarter results, with revenue reaching a record $47.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and earnings per share reaching $7.14, both exceeding market expectations and pushing after-hours shares up more than 10%. Improved AI advertising effectiveness is the main reason for revenue growth, and monetization of Reels, WhatsApp and Threads is also accelerating. Although Reality Labs continued to lose $4.53 billion, Meta still revised its full-year capital expenditure to a maximum of $72 billion, fully betting on the future of AI and the metaverse, reflecting the company's aggressive layout in the AI competition.

Meta's financial report strongly shows that its AI and advertising strategies are effective. Even if Reality Labs 'losses widen, investors are still optimistic about its long-term growth potential and are optimistic about its prospects of rebetting on AI.

Advertising business drives revenue to a new high

• Revenue in the second quarter reached US$47.52 billion, exceeding market expectations of US$44.8 billion; advertising revenue was US$46.56 billion, showing that AI optimization has brought results.

• Third-quarter revenue estimates range from $47.5 billion to $50.5 billion, higher than Wall Street's estimate of $46.17 billion.

AI investment has increased significantly

• Meta has invested heavily in AI and announced that its full-year capital expenditure will be revised upwards to US$66 billion to US$72 billion. The expenditure growth in 2026 is expected to be higher than in 2025.

• It invested US$14.3 billion in AI to create Scale AI, and hired its founder to serve as the co-leader of Meta AI to accelerate the "personal super intelligence" strategy.

Reality Labs 'losses expand but slightly better expectations

• Reality Labs, a meta-universe division, had revenue of only US$370 million in the second quarter, with operating losses reaching US$4.53 billion, and has lost nearly US$70 billion since the end of 2020.

• Although Quest sales are still sluggish, sales of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses have increased more than threefold year-on-year, showing the potential of cooperative products.

User and cost dynamics

• The number of daily active users of Meta's apps reached 3.48 billion, slightly higher than estimates. Total costs and expenditures reached US$27.08 billion, an increase of 12% year-on-year.

• Total spending in 2025 is estimated at US$114 billion to US$118 billion, mainly due to increased AI, infrastructure and personnel costs.

Meta focuses on AI's future blueprint

• CEO Zuckerberg emphasized "super intelligence" as the core strategy of the future, predicting that AI will enhance creativity, connectivity and personal empowerment, rather than just pursuing efficiency automation.

• Meta continues to explore financing models for cooperating with external sources to develop data centers to support the scale expansion of its AI infrastructure.

 

Microsoft Azure's annual revenue exceeded US$75 billion, driving profits to exceed expectations and becoming the world's second company with a market value exceeding US$4 trillion.

Microsoft (MSFT) reported strong second-quarter earnings. Azure cloud revenue increased by 39% year-on-year, and full-year revenue exceeded US$75 billion for the first time, pushing total revenue to US$76.44 billion, an increase of 18%, the fastest in three years. Thanks to the apparent return on investment on AI and the popularity of Copilot's business, the company's after-hours share price soared 9%, and its market value exceeded US$4.1 trillion, second only to NVDA. Microsoft expects capital expenditures to reach US$120 billion in fiscal year 2026, demonstrating its confidence in long-term growth in AI cloud demand.

Through the strong growth of Azure and the implementation of AI applications, Microsoft has accelerated profits and market value improvement, demonstrating its leading position and investment value in the AI cloud competition.

Azure cloud revenue was announced for the first time and significantly exceeded expectations

• The annual revenue of Azure and other cloud businesses reached US$75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34%. The actual amount was disclosed for the first time and exceeded market expectations.

• Azure revenue grew by 39% in the single quarter, higher than market estimates of approximately 34%-35%, and the cloud momentum is strong.

AI promotes value-added enterprise applications

• Microsoft 365 Copilot has 100 million monthly active users, showing that the introduction of AI has improved user value and software sales efficiency.

• Introducing AI into core products such as Office, Windows and GitHub will boost average revenue from commercial software.

Capital expenditures hit record high

• Capital expenditures in the new fiscal quarter are estimated to reach US$30 billion, an annual increase of more than 50%, the company's highest single-quarter expenditure in history.

• If the full-year average continues, capital expenditures in fiscal 2026 will exceed US$120 billion, much higher than market expectations of US$100.5 billion.

The market value exceeded US$4 trillion, ranking with Huida as an AI giant

• After the financial report was announced, the stock price exceeded US$553, and the company's total market value reached approximately US$4.1 trillion, becoming the second company after Huida with a market value exceeding US$4 trillion.

• Microsoft's share price has risen 22% since the beginning of the year, far exceeding the S&P 500 index's gain of about 8%.

Actively expand AI autonomy and partners

• In addition to strengthening cooperation with OpenAI, we also cooperated with xAI, Meta (META), Mistral of France, etc. to expand the model ecosystem.

• Negotiating the possible reorganization of OpenAI into a public interest company, committed to maintaining long-term technical and equity participation.

 

Qualcomm's non-Apple chip business grew by 15%, but concerns about high-end mobile phones and Apple's suspension of orders dragged down stock prices

Qualcomm (QCOM) announced that revenue and profit for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 were better than expected, and predicts that the outlook for the next quarter will remain positive. However, the market focus turned to its over-reliance on high-end Android chips and the possible risk of business loss caused by Apple's (AAPL) self-developed modem machine, causing the share price to fall more than 6% after the earnings report was announced. Although non-Apple chip revenue has increased by more than 15% year-on-year, fierce competition in the mid-market and geopolitical uncertainty still test Qualcomm's future growth stability.

Qualcomm's core business is still resilient, but concentration of high-end products and customer de-risk will discount growth potential, and it is necessary to actively expand mid-market and new application scenarios.

Non-Apple chip business performed well

• In the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, chip revenue from non-Apple customers increased by more than 15% year-on-year.

• The main reason for the growth was that high-end Android phones pushed up average selling prices rather than a rebound in overall shipments.

The pressure on Apple to remove chemicals is becoming increasingly obvious

• The iPhone 16e is the first model equipped with its own modem, and Qualcomm's chip revenue from Apple is likely to continue to decrease in the future.

• Qualcomm reiterated that Apple's switch to home-made modems will impact its chip division.

Third quarter earnings and prospects were better than expected

• Third-quarter revenue was $10.37 billion, slightly higher than the forecast of $10.35 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $2.77, higher than expectations of $2.71.

• Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter are forecast to be $2.85, which is also slightly higher than the market forecast of $2.83.

AR and XR have become new business highlights

• Qualcomm has obtained 19 AR glasses designs, mainly used in devices such as the Meta Ray-Ban series.

• It is expected that this field will become a new growth driver for future chip shipments.

Competition and tariff risks in middle and low-end markets remain

• MediaTek (2454.TW) has surpassed Qualcomm in the mid-market and become the world's largest mobile phone chip supplier.

• The potential for the United States to impose new tariffs on semiconductors, coupled with weak shipments from China, are sources of short-term operational risks.

 

Arm's financial forecast fell short of expectations and announced plans to develop its own chips. Its share price fell 8% and triggered investors 'doubts

British chip designer Arm (ARM) reported that its earnings and next quarter's financial forecast were lower than market expectations, and announced that it will invest more money to develop its own chips and solutions to move away from the purely licensed IP model. The move may create potential competition with existing customers such as NVDA, coupled with the weak smartphone market and trade tensions between China and the United States, causing the stock price to fall 8% in after-hours trading. Although there are still designs that win in the AI server and cloud markets, the market has a high degree of wait-and-see approach to its transformation path.

Although Arm's shift from a licensing model to self-developed chips is expected to enhance its position in the value chain, it may drag down profits and customer relationships in the short term, and the market's transformation effect remains to be seen.

Financial forecasts and growth momentum were lower than expected

• Second-quarter adjusted earnings per share are forecast to be 29 to 37 cents, below the average analyst forecast of 36 cents.

• Revenue is forecast to be US$1.01 billion to US$1.11 billion, in line with market expectations, but the growth rate is slowing down.

Announcement of self-developed chips raises concerns about customer conflicts

• Arm will invest some of its profits in developing finished chips, chips and integrated solutions, breaking with the business model of licensing only designs.

• If the product is launched, it may compete directly with customers such as NVDA and AMZN.

Weak smartphone business affects fundamentals

• Arm has a market share of 99% of the mobile phone market, but global shipments are only increasing by 1% year-on-year. Weak Android demand in China suppresses licensing growth.

• The slowdown in revenue growth in the mobile phone sector has affected the overall licensing and royalty momentum.

AI and cloud are still growth support points

• Arm continues to win licensing in AI accelerator and cloud server design, helping new generation technology licensing continue to rotate.

• The CSS (Compute Sub Systems) licensing model provides higher profit margins, but penetration is still in its early stages.

Excessive valuations amplify the risk of market correction

• Arm's share price has risen more than 150% since its listing in 2023, with a P/E ratio of more than 80 times, much higher than peers such as Huida and Ultramicro.

• Investors have extremely high expectations for its growth, and the slightest risk will trigger drastic corrections.

 

Ford raises tariff cost estimates to $3 billion, as tax pressure drags down profits and stock price performance

Ford Motor (F) said U.S. import tariffs will have an impact on its operations in 2025 by approximately US$3 billion, higher than its previous estimate of US$2.5 billion, and will bring cost pressure of US$800 million in the second quarter alone. Although revenue was better than expected, falling profits and high investment in electric vehicles and components added to overall financial pressure. Ford shares fell about 3%, highlighting concerns about policy uncertainty and rising costs.

Although Ford has domestic manufacturing advantages in the United States, it is still difficult to avoid the pressure of tariffs and raw material costs. Coupled with the widening losses from the transformation of electric vehicles, future operational challenges will remain serious.

Expansion of tariff costs impacts profits

• The annual tariff cost has been revised upward from the original estimate of US$2.5 billion to US$3 billion.

• Tariffs caused US$800 million in charges in the second quarter, mainly due to high tariffs on imported parts from Mexico and Canada.

Financial guidance is revised downward, putting pressure on profit performance

• The full-year 2025 pre-tax adjusted earnings (EBIT) is estimated at US$6.5 billion to US$7.5 billion, down from previous estimates of US$7.0 billion to US$8.5 billion.

• Second-quarter earnings per share fell 21% to $0.37, but still beat market estimates of $0.33.

Revenue performance is outstanding but gross profit is under pressure

• Revenue in the second quarter was US$50.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, mainly due to promotional activities and strong demand for traditional oil trucks and electric cars.

• Active discount promotions boosted sales but compressed profits, indicating that the cost structure still needs to be improved.

Electric vehicle losses and unsolved supply challenges

• The EV and software business lost US$1.3 billion in the second quarter, and the full-year loss may reach US$5.5 billion.

• The shortage of rare earth magnets and soaring component costs have affected production efficiency.

Still resistant to pressure compared to competitors

• About 80% of the vehicles sold in the United States are produced locally, which is better than GM and Stellantis, which will help alleviate some tariff pressure.

• Ford expects to offset US$1 billion in tariff costs throughout the year, which has a better response strategy than GM and Stellantis.

 

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Powell refused to give in to Trump pressure, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and market expectations for a September rate cut cooled

The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.50% as expected at its July policy meeting, but Chairman Bauer stressed that it had not yet decided whether to cut interest rates in September, causing the market's chance of cutting interest rates in September to drop from nearly 70% to less than 50%. This move not only triggered a shock in U.S. stocks, but also increased the pressure on Trump and the Stock Exchange Commission again. Although economic data showed that GDP grew by 3% in the second quarter and the job market remained solid, internal differences of opinion have intensified, and two Fed governors appointed by Trump have publicly advocated immediate interest rate cuts. Inflation is still above the 2% target, and uncertainty about tariff policy still hangs over the direction of decision-making, causing the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. There are still key data to be released before the September meeting, and the Federal Reserve Committee tends to "wait for the data before talking."

The Fed's policies remain wait-and-see. The market is no longer determined to cut interest rates in September. Economic data will dominate the direction of interest rates in the future. Investors should carefully interpret policy signals and potential political interference.

Interest Rate Decision and Market Reaction

• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. Two directors (Waller and Bowman) advocated an immediate interest rate cut, setting the largest number of directors 'objections since 1993.

• Powell reiterated that the current policy is "slightly restrictive" but has not stifled economic momentum and will not adjust interest rates due to government financial pressure.

• U.S. stocks were volatile, with Dow Jones down 0.38%, S&P 500 down 0.12%, and Nasdaq up slightly 0.15%.

Contradictions between economic and inflation data

• GDP growth in the second quarter reached 3%, higher than expectations, but the decline in imports dominated growth, and domestic demand grew at the slowest pace in two and a half years.

• Private sector employment data was strong, with 104,000 new jobs added in July, higher than expected; annual inflation growth remains close to 3%, above the 2% target.

Political pressure heats up

• President Trump has repeatedly publicly pressed for immediate and substantial interest rate cuts and criticized Powell for being "too slow."

• At the press conference, Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve and "does not consider the government's financing needs" to avoid undermining the credibility of the policy.

Trade and inflation risks remain

• Trump announced new tariff measures, including tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian and South Korean products, raising market concerns about price pressures.

• Bauer noted that tariffs could create a "one-time inflationary shock," but did not rule out a continuing risk.

Corporate earnings are bright but the market is cautious

• Shares of Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) surged more than 6% after announcing earnings;Teradyne (TER) rose 18.9% and VF Corp (VFC) rose 2.6%.

• Despite strong corporate performance, market focus remains on the Fed's follow-up policy path.

 

U.S. GDP in the second quarter was better than expected but domestic demand was weak. Trump pressed the Fed again to cut interest rates

The U.S. economic growth rate in the second quarter reached 3%, far better than market expectations of 2.3%. However, the main reason behind this was a sharp contraction in imports and non-real demand growth, reflecting the unstable economic momentum. Personal consumption only grew moderately by 1.4%, corporate and residential investment both fell, coupled with rising uncertainty in trade and tariff policies, the market views the future economy conservatively. Although President Trump asked the Fed to cut interest rates immediately, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and emphasized the need to observe more data. This GDP data is strong and weak, which is beneficial to risky assets in the short term, but subsequent growth may face downward pressure.

The U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter seemed strong, but in fact it came from a sharp drop in imports, reflecting slowing domestic demand and economic concerns. The Fed will still rely on data to decide whether to start a cycle of interest rate cuts in September.

A seemingly strong GDP rebound

• GDP in the second quarter increased by 3% year-on-year, reversing the contraction in the first quarter (-0.5%), but was mainly caused by the 30.3% decline in imports, contributing nearly 5 percentage points, and non-endogenous demand growth.

• Exports fell 1.8%, federal spending fell for two consecutive quarters, and residential investment fell 4.6%, reflecting that high interest rates continued to dampen housing activity.

Weak growth in consumption and corporate investment

• Personal consumption grew by 1.4%, which was better than 0.5% in the previous quarter, but lower than the post-epidemic average. Enterprise equipment investment increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a significant slowdown from 23.7% in the previous quarter.

• Core PCE inflation was 2.5%, a significant drop from 3.5% in the previous quarter, but it was still above the Fed's target, limiting room for easing.

Trump urges Fed to cut interest rates again, but policy remains wait-and-see

• After the GDP was released, Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on social media for being "too slow" and demanded an immediate interest rate cut to 1% to reduce mortgage and government debt costs.

• However, the Fed still maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% at its July meeting, saying it needed more data support, and the market revised down the probability of a September interest rate cut below 50%.

Domestic demand momentum is weakening, causing market worries

• "Final sales to private domestic buyers" excluding trade and government spending grew by only 1.2%, the slowest since the end of 2022, indicating a weakening of real demand momentum.

• The main consumption is supported by middle and high-income groups, but credit default rates have begun to rise, and consumption may weaken further in the future.

Tariff policies continue to disrupt economic expectations

• The impact of tariffs has not yet been fully reflected in inflation data, but it has put pressure on corporate imports and household spending. Economists expect full-year GDP growth to fall to about 1.5%, down from 2.8% in 2024.

 

U.S. private employment rebounded strongly in July, with ADP adding 104,000 new jobs indicating a solid labor market

ADP announced that the number of new private jobs in the United States in July was 104,000, higher than market expectations of 64,000, and also reversed the downward trend in June. Although the overall growth rate has slowed down, the data still shows that the job market is resilient, supporting the market's expectations for a "soft landing" of the economy. The leisure, hospitality and financial sectors led the increase in employment, indicating that consumer spending still has momentum, and the annual wage growth rate remains at 4.4%. This data provides positive guidance for the upcoming official non-agricultural report, but whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September still needs to be observed.

The ADP employment report shows that corporate hiring continues to resume, supporting the economy's soft landing argument, also easing doubts about a weak labor market, and providing support for the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see stance on interest rates.

The job market warms up more than expected

• In July, 104,000 new people were added, reversing the decline of 23,000 people after the downgrade in June and higher than the market expectation of 64,000 people, indicating that companies 'confidence in recruitment has rebounded.

• Medium-sized and large-scale enterprises each contributed 46,000 people, while small enterprises added only 12,000 people, indicating that resources are concentrated in larger enterprises.

Consumption momentum supports employment recovery

• Consumption-related industries led the gains, with 46,000 new people added in the leisure and catering industries, the main source of contribution. Trade, finance and construction also performed well, with an increase of 18,000, 28,000 and 15,000 respectively.

• On the other hand, the education and health services sector lost 38,000 people, making it the only major negative contributor industry in the report.

Salary growth remains stable

• The average annual salary increase of employees remained at 4.4%, consistent with the trend in recent months, indicating that salary pressure has not increased again, helping to curb inflation concerns.

• Employment growth and wage stability reflect the resilience of the overall economy.

Tariffs and economic uncertainty have not significantly affected employment

• Although the market is still worried about Trump's tariff policies, ADP believes that companies 'confidence in consumer spending is the main reason for continued hiring.

• Private employers expect consumer spending to remain stable, although the outlook remains volatile.

Non-agricultural data outlook and policy impact

• The ADP report is the official non-farm payrolls data (BLS) outpost. The market expects a total of 100,000 new jobs in July, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.2%.

• If the official data is consistent with ADP, it will strengthen the Fed's stance on postponing interest rate cuts and wait for more economic indicators to confirm the trend.