Matrixport: The U.S. market is entering a new round of liquidity release cycle and the market is expected to continue into 2026
According to online reports, Matrixport released a weekly report saying that the U.S. market is entering a new round of liquidity release cycle. Structural capital support may drive Bitcoin and risky assets to continue to rise, and the market is expected to continue into 2026. The current capital structure and credit environment are quite similar to those in the early stages of past bull markets: abundant liquidity, improved credit environment, policies have turned to dovish, and multiple positive resonances have pushed asset prices upward. Our models show that the Fed's rate cut has fallen behind market expectations for 32 consecutive months. To narrow this gap, a cumulative interest rate cut of about 62 basis points will still be needed in the next few months. The cumulative increase in U.S. commercial and industrial loans by $74 billion since April 2025 shows early signs of a new cycle of credit expansion. Since June, credit spreads have continued to narrow and the financing environment has improved. Historically, this has usually been positive for Bitcoin, and this trend has also been initially reflected in Bitcoin's price performance. Our model shows that inflation will gradually fall back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target range, and volatility tends to converge, providing more policy space for interest rate cuts in September. Since the Great Beauty Act raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, the Treasury Department has issued a net additional $789 billion in treasury bonds in less than six weeks. This round of large-scale bond issuance comes as Bitcoin launches a new round of rising prices. Historically, during Trump-led fiscal expansion cycles, bitcoin prices have often strengthened in tandem with government bond issuance.
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