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[Intraday Analysis of U.S. Stocks] High-end shocks and structural differences have taken shape. (2025.09.20)

U.S. stocks experienced high-end intraday shocks, while technology stabilized but weakened; the market focused on Sichuan-Xi calls and TikTok transactions, the Federal Reserve Commission's signal to restart interest rate cuts continued, and funds shifted to defense and equity stocks diverged.

High-end shocks and structural differences took shape.

U.S. stocks continued their high-end consolidation pattern after reaching highs, with the three major indices rising slightly, but the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index weakening, indicating that funds are racing between large technology stocks and defensive assets. The market's focus returned to the substance of the Sichuan-Xi call and the outline of TikTok's trading. At the same time, it absorbed the Federal Reserve Commission's resumption of interest rate cuts and recent news from the semiconductor industry. Overall risk appetite remained but structural differences intensified.

The four major indexes rose slightly while fees fell half.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was temporarily trading at 46,280.98, up 0.30%; the S & P 500 Index was temporarily trading at 6,650.99, up 0.29%; the Nasdaq Composite Index was temporarily trading at 22,569.81, up 0.44%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was temporarily trading at 6,219.47, down 0.93%. The rally after the high converged, and the index's performance was moderate and more, but the retreat of semiconductor stocks limited the overall upward attack.

Market breadth is weakening, funds are biased towards defense.

Although the intraday market was supported by an index, the number of falling companies exceeded the number of rising companies, and the market breadth was weak, indicating that funds were more selective. Public utilities and some precious metals-related stocks are relatively supportive, while small and medium-sized stocks in topics such as quantum computing and nuclear energy are active; correspondingly, medical and some growth-oriented medical materials stocks are under pressure, reflecting that the news and valuation digestion are parallel.

Large-scale technological performance diverges, Apple led the gains.

The seven major U.S. stocks widened intraday differences, with Nvidia(NVDA) down slightly 0.19%, Tesla(TSLA) up 1.61%, Apple(AAPL) up 3.11%, Meta Platforms(Facebook, META) down 1.24%, Microsoft(MSFT) up 0.64%, Alphabet (GOOGL) up 1.03%, and Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) up 0.64%. Equity stocks were driven by Apple and others to maintain a red market, but the internal rotation between the AI and cloud communities was obvious, suppressing half of the performance.

Public utilities and information security performed relatively strongly.

Eversource Energy(ES) rose more than 5% intraday, and Fortinet (FTNT) rose nearly 4%. Both saw buying returns and transaction momentum increased, echoing the market's preference for people with defensive attributes or stable cash flow in high-end shocks. At the same time, some Netcom and Civic Security stocks benefited from the resilience of corporate capital expenditures and attracted funds in the short term.

Medical equipment and insurance are under pressure, selling pressure is concentrated.

DexCom(DXCM) fell more than 10% during the session, and Humana(Hamina, USA) fell more than 5%. The retracement of individual stocks in the medical system became one of the sources of weakness today. The intraday selling pressure was significantly amplified, indicating that financial and regulatory risk assessments still affect short-term capital flows.

Trade and TikTok news affect risk appetite.

Trump completed the phone call with China President Xi Jinping, and Trump said he had made progress on issues such as trade, fentanyl, the end of the war with Ukraine and the TikTok deal. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that a possible solution would be a majority stake in a consortium formed by Oracle(ORCL) and private equity and venture capital partners; China's summary expressed support for commercial solutions and hoped to avoid new restrictive trade measures. The trading outline has not yet been finalized, and the market interprets it with cautious optimism, which will help suppress the uncertainty premium in the short term.

Policy and geographical noise add to uncertainty.

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed the government funding bill and sent it to the Senate, but the market remains concerned about the risk of a potential government shutdown. Military dynamics and flight risk news reappeared on the Europe-NATO border, and geopolitical noise disturbed emotions. In addition, Trump's submission to the Supreme Court seeking legal space to fire Federal Reserve directors has also alerted investors to the institutional risks of the monetary policy framework. Although the above message did not immediately change the fundamentals, it restricted the evaluation in high-end areas.

The Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts is intertwined with semiconductor news.

The market continues to digest the signal that the Federal Reserve will return to the cycle of interest rate cuts and simultaneously pay attention to the industrial knock-on effect triggered by Nvidia's US$5 billion investment in Intel. Although the theme of capital cooperation brought long-term imagination, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index still fell nearly 1% intraday, indicating that investors turned to assessing the balance between fundamentals and valuations after reaching a high, and the rotation within the short-term sector intensified.

Futures index and volatility observation maintain risk anchors.

The trend of U.S. stock futures and spot stocks is roughly in the same direction. The overall shock range is limited, and there are no extreme risk-averse signs in the market. Investors continue to use the VIX panic index and changes in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields as anchors for risk appetite. The marginal trend of yields remains a key variable in the discount rate of growth stocks and also affects the evaluation level of large technology stocks.

The transaction volume structure shows that funds are becoming more accurate.

Intraday statistics showed that the number of declining companies still exceeded the number of rising companies, with about 60% of stocks falling, but the weight and volume of subject stocks can be relatively concentrated. For example, the concepts of public utilities, information security and some raw materials have increased in volume and price, while medical equipment and insurance stocks have increased in volume but their prices have fallen, indicating that buyers and sellers are actively changing hands at key prices, and short-term support and pressure bands are gradually clarifying.

Aftermarket observation focuses on three major clues.

First, the specific documents subsequent to the Sichuan-Xi call and the implementation schedule of the TikTok transaction will affect cross-border investment and platform ecological evaluation; second, changes in the progress of congressional budget negotiations and the risk of government shutdown will affect short-term risk premiums; third, the intra-sector digestion pace of the semiconductor and AI supply chain under the news of capital expenditure and production capacity cooperation, as well as the leading gains and losses of the seven major U.S. stocks, will determine the index's endurance at the high end.

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