[Before the market] AI alliance expands to boost risk appetite, futures index sentiment is too high but supply chain resilience is tested (2025.10.07)

AI supply chain expands, risk sentiment heats up

Before Tuesday's trading in Taiwan time, market sentiment continued the bullish momentum of the previous trading day, with the focus on the expansion of the AI industry chain and the connection of capital. The news that OpenAI has signed a multi-year cooperation with Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) and launched a potential equity link has strengthened the popularity of AI computing power investment. However, the analysis circle also warned that AI capital and supply are highly concentrated in a few companies. Once any link in the chain is weak, fluctuations may be amplified.

Index innovation continues, driven by dual engines of mergers and acquisitions and AI

Early Tuesday morning, Taiwan time, U.S. stocks closed on Monday, Standard & Poor's and Nasdaq hit a record high. The efficiency and scale imagination brought by AI cooperation and banking mergers and acquisitions boosted the evaluation of corporate momentum. Pre-market sentiment continues to be multi-tone, but at the high end of the index, the market becomes more dependent on news, and trading orders become more sensitive to changes in supply chains, capital expenditures and regulatory.

AI capital cycle accelerates and the chain is highly concentrated

OpenAI announced that it will deploy approximately 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs over multiple years and across multiple generations of hardware to expand its AI infrastructure; the agreement also includes a warrant arrangement that allows OpenAI to obtain up to 10% of AMD's equity. This move continues the previous cooperation of approximately US$100 billion between OpenAI and Nvidia(NVDA), forming a structure in which capital, equity and computing resources are circulated at a high speed among a small number of companies. Currently, Viida provides capital and chips, Oracle(ORCL) helps build the data center site, AMD and Broadcom(AVGO) play the supply and collaboration role, OpenAI has become the demand anchor, and the overall chain is tight but the vulnerability needs to be continuously evaluated.

Ultramicro has risen sharply to lead AI, and the competitive landscape is re-priced

AMD surged more than 20% on Monday, reflecting market repricing that increased AI order visibility and computing power market share. Pre-market attention will focus on subsequent evidence of AI GPU delivery rhythm, capacity expansion and gross profit structure. Rival Vitek's technological and software ecological advantages in high-end computing power still exist, and the trend of supply diversification has also benefited supply and cloud partners such as Oracle and Broadcom. Industry evaluation relies more on the comprehensive power of long-order, delivery and full-stack solutions.

Tesla releases new car clues, electric car sentiment stabilizes

Tesla(TSLA) rose more than 5% on Monday after releasing a new car trailer video on social platforms, paying attention to whether it will lead to emotional recovery in electric vehicles and supply chain stocks. The market will focus on the pace of new car positioning, platform sharing and cost structure optimization, as well as the potential impact on full-year delivery and profit margins.

Software ecology follows AI, application layer imagines diffusion

OpenAI stage shows that it has strengthened the ability to connect third-party applications with its Apps framework, and stocks in design software and enterprise productivity tools are receiving more benefits. The pre-market focus is on how generative AI can be implemented into team collaboration, design and customization workflows. Subscription momentum and payment conversion rates will become core indicators to test revenue quality.

Bank mergers and acquisitions boost finance, with scale and efficiency as the main axis

News that Fifth Third Bancorp(FITB) agreed to acquire Comerica(Bank of Comerica (CMA) for approximately US$10.9 billion boosted risk appetite in financial stocks. Pre-market observation points include the integration of transactions with capital adequacy, cost coordination and branch and technology investment. It also needs to pay attention to regulatory approval schedules and conditions. Under the pressure of net interest margin and fee income, the banking industry has a more obvious trend to improve efficiency through scale.

Macroscopic attention continues, and interest rate expectations are around the evaluation

In the absence of new heavyweight data signals before the market, investors continue to pay attention to the impact of inflation and employment follow-up paths on the timing and extent of interest rate cuts. High valuation technology weights are sensitive to changes in yield rates. If the bond yields rise or the US dollar is strong, short-term fluctuations in growth stocks may increase. The market will also pay attention to the assessments of inflation stickiness and financial conditions in Fed officials 'conversations and meeting minutes.

A strong wait-and-see atmosphere in European stocks has brought neutral spillover to U.S. stocks

Europe's Stoxx 600 closed nearly flat on Monday, reflecting the ongoing digestion of AI and M & A news. Before the opening of U.S. stocks, the neutral trend of European stocks had limited impact on U.S. stock sentiment, and funds were more inclined to return to industrial catalysis and corporate events in the United States.

Volatility of raw materials and foreign exchange markets leads to divergence in industrial influence

Changes in the oil price index and the US dollar index remain one of the reasons for pre-market changes. If oil prices are strong, pressure on aviation and transportation costs will increase; a stronger US dollar will be detrimental to export-oriented companies, but it will benefit import costs and the attractiveness of overseas buying. The industry impact will be differentiated, and the market will dynamically adjust position risks with instant quotations and company guidance.

Institutional views focus on defense, asset allocation seeks resilience

Bridgewater Associates identified three major markets outside the United States to provide a layer of resilience for the portfolio, echoing the risk diversification need for equity exposure. Pre-market asset allocation discussions focus on the balance between high valuations of U.S. stocks and safe-haven costs. Cross-market and multi-asset volatility correlations are key parameters for recent allocation.

Celebrity views have sparked controversy, and risks in the final stages have been repeatedly examined

Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said the market had the conditions for a strong surge at the end of the bull market, and compared the current situation to the eve of the tech Internet bubble in 1999. Such views deepen the market's discussion of short-term sentiment overheating and subsequent retractions risks. Pre-market trading tends to be event-driven and risk management in parallel.

Pre-market watch list, AI chain banking and electric vehicles become the focus

The trading side will continue to pay attention to the quotation and delivery rhythm of AI supply chains such as AMD, Vidia, Oracle and Broadcom, the follow-up of the merger between Fifth Third Bank and Comerica Bank, and the extension of Tesla's new car topic. Volume, energy and turnover rate can provide clues to the strength of risk appetite before the market, and the flow of funds from the dual main lines of technology and finance will affect the rotation of stocks after the opening.

Risks and opportunities coexist, and high-end needs to verify fundamentals

Overall, AI-driven capital cycles and corporate events have a positive contribution to risk sentiment, but in the context of index highs, the market has become more sensitive to variables such as supply chain resilience, capital expenditure recovery, and regulatory approval. The overall pre-market expectations are too high, and the short-term pulse will still be shaped by AI industry chain news, financial mergers and acquisitions progress and macro interest rate narrative.