Technology pullbacks and rising risk aversion suppress the market's continued momentum to hit highs

U.S. stocks pulled back after continuously rewriting new highs, and the reclining of technology stocks and rising risk aversion became the main theme of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average temporarily closed at 46,544.5 points, down 0.32%, the S & P 500 Index temporarily closed at 6,712.62 points, down 0.41%, the Nasdaq Index temporarily closed at 22,792.77 points, down 0.65%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index continued to weaken to 6,667.43 points, down 1.57%. Gold futures stood at US$4000 per ounce for the first time. The decline in U.S. bond yields, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the fall in oil prices occurred simultaneously, reflecting that funds are turning defensive amid high-end evaluations and policy uncertainty.

The four major indexes continue to weaken half of their recovery from high-end

At the index level, the index level has retreated from a high base period, and funds 'tolerance for growth and high price-to-earnings ratio assets has declined. Semiconductor stocks led the decline, dragging down the momentum of the market. In contrast, value and defense attributes were relatively resistant to decline, but the overall market breadth was weak. The simultaneous cooling of technology equity stocks caused Nasdaq to decline more than Dow Jones and S & P. The disk structure shows that the early gainers have entered the digestion period, and the index has turned into a range volatility pattern in the short term.

AI theme momentum turns into differentiation

The performance of individual stocks in the AI chain tended to be divided. Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) rose 3.60% intraday, continuing its strength after OpenAI's large and profitable orders. NVIDIA(NVDA) reported US$185.84, up 0.18%, relatively stable. Most of the seven U.S. stocks retreated, Tesla (Tesla, TSLA) reported $448.41, down 1.07%, Apple(Apple, AAPL) reported $255.85, down 0.33%, Meta Platforms(Facebook, META) reported $708.10, down 1.06%, Microsoft(MSFT) reported $522.35, down 1.18%, Alphabet (Alphabet, GOOGL) reported $247.99, down 1.40%, and Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) reported $221.12, up 0.10%. Under the seesaw of valuation and interest rate sensitivity, the AI theme has shifted from comprehensive promotion to fundamental verification of individual stocks.

Stock fluctuations focus on cloud doubts and supply chain incidents

Doubts about cloud profitability triggered technology selling pressure. Oracle(ORCL) fell more than 7% intraday trading. Market reports that its cloud business profit margins may not be as good as Wall Street expectations. The impact of the supply chain dragged down the industry leader, with Ford Motor(Ford Motor, F) down about 7%, due to a fire at a major aluminum supplier, which may affect production. AppLovin(APP) rebounded 7.61%, recovering some of the decline dragged down by news of the regulatory investigation the day before. Seagate Technology(STX) weakened and fell 7.68%, while MicroStrategy(MSTR) fell 7.13%, in line with Bitcoin's retreat from all-time highs. In consumer goods, Constellation Brands(STZ) rose about 2.5%, benefiting from a smaller decline in quarterly sales than market expectations. Estee Lauder Companies(EL) bucked the trend and rose 4.01%, becoming one of the few strong consumer stocks on the market.

The flow of funds shows that defense and risk avoidance are heating up

Gold futures hit record highs, funds poured into safe-haven assets and anti-inflation allocations, and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell, easing the evaluation pressure on growth stocks but did not reverse the technology retracement. The US dollar strengthened against the euro, British pound and Japanese yen, reflecting global funds 'preference for US dollar assets. The slight decline in oil prices alleviated short-term concerns about a second rise in inflation. Overall risk appetite has cooled down compared with the previous day, and the proportion of defensive allocation between sectors has increased.

Government shutdown delays data making financial reports the core of short-term pricing

The government shutdown has delayed the employment report, and inflation data such as CPI and PPI may also be delayed. The decline in macro visibility has made the market rely more on corporate financial reports and forward-looking guidance. Although strategists raised the S & P 500 target, they unanimously emphasized that the subsequent earnings season will become a key verification point, and the profits of leading technology companies and the pace of cloud and AI capital expenditures will directly affect the evaluation. On the policy front, Trump has signaled that he is willing to negotiate with the Democratic Party on health insurance subsidies, adding variables to the unwinding of Washington's funding bill, and subsequent progress will affect risk appetite.

Trading volume is concentrated on theme stocks and event stocks

Intraday volume can be dominated by focus stocks. The trading volume of Ultramicro and AppLovin has increased significantly due to the bullish and news, and the rising prices and volumes have led to short-term spread trading. In contrast, Ford, Seagate Technology and MicroStrategy triggered selling pressure due to eventuality negative and the fall in crypto assets. The volume and energy were also abnormally amplified, exacerbating stock price volatility. The quantity-energy structure shows that funds tend to pursue clear catalytic themes, while the quantity-energy index is more dispersed.

Intraday observation focuses on the progress of negotiations between Tesla's new products and Washington

Tesla expects to release market trends and order signals for the new Model Y, which will affect the short-term temperature of the electric vehicle community. Any sign of reconciliation in Washington over the government shutdown could quickly change market preferences for interest rate paths and risky assets. Investors should also pay attention to cloud service providers 'latest statements on profit margins and the visibility of AI-related orders, as well as the immediate impact of US dollar and US bond yield trends on technology and discretionary consumer stocks.

Short-term tone setting intertwined with technology and fundamentals

Under the high base period, macro data gap and message catalytic interweaving, the disk returns to the fundamental verification and event-driven seesaw. If the demand for hedging continues to heat up, funds may continue to rotate from high-valuation technology stocks to defensive and cash flow stable groups, whereas macro and financial reports release positive signals, which is expected to restart the market's high momentum.