[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] News on equity stocks is divided and retail data is ahead, and market sentiment is on the sidelines (2025.08.15)

Differences in futures are intertwined with data and geography, and the opening sentiment is conservative

U.S. stock futures were divided before the market. Dow Jones futures rose about 0.6% driven by medical insurance heavyweights, S & P 500 futures rose slightly by about 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures weakened slightly. Investors focused on the developments in the talks between Trump and Putin tonight in Taipei time, as well as evening US retail sales data. Crude oil performance is divided, with WTI higher, Brent crude oil weak, 10-year U.S. bond yields and gold prices have limited changes, Bitcoin is above US$119,000, and risk appetite signals are mixed.

Retail sales and confidence index relay, and consumer resilience becomes the main line at night

Retail sales for July were announced at 20:30 Taipei time. The market is expected to increase by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly slowing down from 0.6% in the previous month. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released at 22:00 Taipei time is generally expected to improve slightly. Previously, the U.S. producer price index increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year in July, the largest monthly increase since 2022. Wholesale price pressure rebounded, making the tension between inflation and consumption resilience once again the key to the market.

Differences in interest rate signals remain unresolved, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere between bonds and the US dollar

After wholesale prices warmed up in July, the market disagreed on the interpretation of the pace of subsequent interest rate cuts by the SAR. Some market participants advocated greater easing to hedge the risk of economic slowdown, but there were also views concerned about the risk of further accelerated prices. The 10-year U.S. bond yield rate changed little before the market, and gold prices remained stable, indicating that asset allocation was biased towards neutrality before evening data.

US-Russia talks add uncertainty, defense and energy topics attract attention

The talks between Trump and Putin tonight in Taipei time have attracted the attention of global capital markets. European analysts tend to support defense stocks regardless of the outcome. Energy supply and the direction of sanctions are also the focus of observation. Affected by this, European stocks and defence-related stocks have a strong sentiment, oil prices have diverged, and the market maintains a defensive configuration under the dual variables of geography and economic data.

Berkshire shares in United Health, medical insurance becomes a key player

UnitedHealth Group(UNH) was up about 11% in pre-market trading after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) declared a position of about US$1.6 billion. Berkshire also built Allegion(ALLE), D.R. Horton(DHI), Lamar Advertising(LAMR), Nucor(Nucor) and others held shares, simultaneously clearing T-Mobile US(TMUS) and significantly reducing Charter Communications(CHTR). United Health is a Dow Jones component heavyweight, driving Dow Jones futures to outperform the broader market.

Applied materials financial estimates fell short of expectations, semiconductor equipment was under pressure

Applied Materials(AMAT) fell about 14% in pre-market trading. The company expects adjusted earnings per share of $2.11 in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year and revenue of approximately $6.7 billion to $500 million, both lower than Visible Alpha's estimates of $2.37 and $7.3 billion. The company mentioned that the macro and policy environment dynamics have intensified, especially the reduced visibility of its business in China and increased short-term uncertainty. Although third-quarter performance was better than expected, conservative forward-looking overshadowed the gains, dragging down the sentiment of semiconductor equipment and related supply chains, and suppressing the performance of Nasdaq futures.

Intel is rumored that the government is considering holding a stake, and the theme of manufacturing localization continues to heat up

Intel(INTC) rose slightly before the market. Foreign news reported that the U.S. government is evaluating a shareholding plan with the goal of supporting Intel's advanced manufacturing expansion in the United States. This week, Intel CEO went to the White House to meet with Trump, and previously caused public opinion controversy due to its connection with China. In line with the policy message of Nvidia(NVDA) and AMD(AMD) that China sales need to allocate 15% of revenue to the government, as well as Apple(AAPL)'s commitment to expand manufacturing in the United States, the White House has made the outline of promoting the localization of the chip supply chain clearer, and the manufacturing terminal target has attracted market attention.

Asian stocks are strengthening and European stocks are steady, external demand and geography are pulling together

Asian stock markets generally rose today, with Japan's Nikkei index rising more than 1% as its economy beat expectations in the second quarter. China's retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment in July were all lower than expected, indicating that domestic demand and industrial momentum were weak, which had an impact on the global demand outlook. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose moderately in the previous trading day. Today's focus is on the defense and energy community, waiting for the results of the US-Russia talks and evening data from the United States.

Differences in oil and gold trends and stabilization of Bitcoin, cross-asset signals are neutral

WTI futures rose, while Brent crude oil softened, indicating a widening spread between supply and demand and different delivery benchmarks under geographical variables. Gold prices were flat, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rate did not change much, and demand for hedging was limited. In terms of digital assets, Bitcoin rose slightly above US$119,000. The market's tolerance for risky assets is still there. However, due to the news of technology stocks, the overall risk appetite is unclear.

The three major futures have their own statements, and the opening focus is on consumption and technology rights.

Dow Jones futures performed best due to joint health, while S & P futures moved moderately, which meant that futures were suppressed by news on semiconductor equipment. Evening retail sales and consumer confidence will examine the resilience of U.S. domestic demand, while companies will observe the three main lines of medical insurance, semiconductor equipment and chip manufacturing. Fluctuations in weights such as UnitedHealth, Applied Materials, and Intel may amplify the market's rotation. Geopolitical headlines and energy changes may also amplify intraday noise. Overall, funds tend to adopt a waiting posture with low leverage and high liquidity before key data is implemented.

Risks and opportunities coexist, and pre-market attention focuses on three things

The market's attention is focused on the true strength of U.S. consumer data, the divergence of news among technology privileged stocks and the suddenness of geopolitical negotiations. If the data shows that consumption resilience is still there, it can partially offset inflationary concerns about rising wholesale prices; if the weakness of semiconductor equipment continues, the evaluation of growth stocks will face rebalancing pressure; if the talks send a cooling signal, defense and energy fluctuations may intensify. In information-intensive trading days, opening and intraday sentiment is susceptible to a single headline. Pay attention to the changing pace of the difference between volume and energy and futures and spot prices.