The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is part of the Federal Reserve and will hold eight regular meetings in Washington a year, but they can also hold ad hoc meetings in case of emergencies.At certain meetings, the Federal Open Market Committee will also release official economic forecasts.

2025FOMC regular meeting schedule:

Data source: Federal Reserve official website

Results of the 2025FOMC Interest Rate Negotiation Meeting and Interest Rate Trend:

Data source: Federal Reserve official website

The Fed's policy path since the March 2022 rate hike cycle:

Data source: Federal Reserve official website

U.S. CPI inflation data (year-on-year):

Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. PCE inflation data (year-on-year):

Data source: US Department of Commerce

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's September 2025 interest-rate meeting

·Interest rate cuts for the first time in the year, with a decrease of 25 basis points

--"The Federal Reserve announced after the FOMC meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee that the target range of the federal funds rate has dropped from 4.25% to 4.5% to 4.00% to 4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points.”

--"This is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since December last year, marking the first policy shift this year.”

--"The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates at three consecutive meetings since September last year, with a total decrease of 100 basis points. It has been suspended this year, and it has acted again at this time, making the market's general expectations fulfilled.”

Federal Reserve's worries about the job market escalate

--"This resolution statement adds that employment growth in the United States has slowed down, the unemployment rate has risen slightly, and downside risks to employment have increased.”

--"The statement deleted the expression 'the labor market remains stable' and instead emphasized that 'the committee judges that downside risks to employment have increased.'”

--"Powell said at a press conference: 'We are now more concerned about signs of weak employment, especially in the service industry and temporary job recruitment.'”

·Differences within the Federal Reserve still exist, Milan advocates aggressive interest rate cuts

--"The voting results showed that 11 of the 12 committee members supported a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Only Milan, the new director appointed by Trump, opposed and advocated a one-time interest rate cut of 50 basis points.”

--"Milan was just confirmed by the Senate to join the FOMC voting committee earlier this week, becoming one of the fastest Fed officials to take office.”

--"Some analysts said that Milan, who voted against this time, is likely to be the one in the 'dot matrix' who predicts five interest rates during the year, totaling 150 basis points.”

·There are still two interest rate cuts expected during the year, but differences have widened

--"The dot chart shows that 9 of the 19 officials expect to cut interest rates twice this year, accounting for less than half;6 are not expected to cut interest rates again, and 1 is expected to raise interest rates.”

--"The median value of the Federal Reserve's interest rate forecast shows that officials expect to cut interest rates three times this year and again next year.”

--"Compared with June, the number of officials supporting the three interest rate cuts has increased significantly, but it is still not enough to form a consensus, reflecting the uncertainty within the Fed.”

·Continue to reduce national debt and maintain a stable pace of shrinking the balance sheet

--"The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).”

--"Lower the monthly redemption limit for U.S. Treasuries from $25 billion to $5 billion, while leaving the monthly redemption limit for agency debt and MBS unchanged at $35 billion.”

--"This is the fourth consecutive meeting that has maintained this pace of shrinking the balance sheet, indicating that the Federal Reserve will not consider fully stopping shrinking the balance sheet in the short term.”

·Waller's attitude changes and is regarded as a policy vane

--"Federal Reserve Governor Waller had previously been hawkish, but this month supported interest rates. He once said: 'I am worried that high interest rates may harm an economy lacking inflationary pressure'.”

--"Nick Timiraos, who calls himself the 'New Federal Reserve News Agency', said that Waller's statement may be related to Trump's view as the next Fed chairman.”

--"Waller's July speech emphasized that the essence of quantitative easing is to lower long-term interest rates. Although its effect is limited, it is still an important part of the Fed's toolbox.”

·Federal Reserve raises economic growth forecast and cuts unemployment rate

--"GDP growth is expected to be 1.6% in 2025, which is upward from the previous forecast of 1.4%; the growth rates in 2026 and 2027 will be 1.8% and 1.9% respectively.”

--"The unemployment rate is expected to be slightly lowered in the next two years, from 4.4% in 2026 to 4.2% in 2028.”

--"Fed officials expect inflation to fall back to its 2% target in 2028, the first time in seven years.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision: cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, or cut interest rates twice more during the year

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's September 2025 interest-rate meeting

Powell emphasizes that "employment risks" have become a policy focus

--"We are seeing signs of weakness in the labor market, especially against the backdrop of slowing hiring activity and a slight rise in unemployment.”

--"The risk of downward employment has become an important consideration in the policy formulation process, and we must respond to this.”

--"Our judgment on inflation is that it is still slightly above the target, but it is not the main resistance at present.”

Powell responded positively to the "Third Mission" issue for the first time

--"The third mission does exist, but in our view it is a derivative of two more well-known goals stipulated in the law.”

--"We believe that moderate long-term interest rates will be the natural result of stabilizing inflation and maximizing employment.”

--"We don't believe this is a separate goal that requires us to independently set policies to achieve.”

·Reaffirm that monetary policy has limited impact on long-term interest rates

--"The Federal Reserve's tools mainly work on short-term interest rates, and their impact on long-term interest rates is more indirect and limited.”

--"Long-term interest rates are influenced by a variety of factors, including the global savings and investment balance, market risk sentiment and the fiscal outlook.”

--"We will not set targets for long-term interest rates.”

·Reflection and clarification on the effects of quantitative easing (QE)

--"In extraordinary times in the past, we used quantitative easing to ensure that markets were functioning properly and to provide additional stimulus when interest rates were close to zero.”

--"But we have never used quantitative easing as a direct tool to achieve our third mission.”

--"We know it may reduce long-term borrowing costs, but the effect is difficult to quantify accurately.”

·Maintain "data-based" flexibility in future policy paths

--"We don't pre-set interest rate paths, but pay close attention to every piece of data.”

--"If future data shows a rebound in inflation or a return to employment stabilization, we are prepared to adjust our policy stance.”

--"We still maintain a meeting-by-meeting approach and proceed cautiously.”

·Respond to market pricing expectations for interest rates to "turn cycles"

--"We are aware that the market expects us to continue to cut interest rates, and we understand the logic behind this view.”

--"But we will not be guided by market expectations, we will make judgments based on data.”

--"Adjusting interest rates too fast or too slowly brings risks, and we will maintain balance.”

·Responding to questions about "political interference"(indirectly responding to Trump)

--"Our decisions are based entirely on economic data, not political considerations.”

--"I emphasize that the Federal Reserve is an independent institution and our mission is to serve the public, not any government.”

--"Directors have different backgrounds and perspectives, but we work together to achieve long-term economic stability.”

·Clarify and appease internal differences in the Fed

--"Although there are different opinions among members on the pace of interest rate cuts, everyone agrees with the overall economic direction.”

--"We welcome the diversity of policy perspectives, which allows us to have a more comprehensive understanding of the economy.”

--"At present, the Federal Reserve Board remains highly united in our dual mission.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision: cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, or cut interest rates twice more during the year

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's July 2025 interest-rate meeting

·The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, with a rare double negative vote

- -The FOMC meeting on July 30 decided to continue to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, in line with market expectations.

--At this meeting, Bowman and Waller voted against it, advocating an immediate interest rate cut. This was the first time since 1993 that two dissenting votes appeared.

--The text of the statement only makes minor revisions to the impact on net exports, deletes the previous statement about "declining economic uncertainty", and is generally neutral.

·The market interprets Powell's statement as a "biased eagle"

--Although the Federal Reserve maintained its policy unchanged and the market had expected a loose signal, Powell's continued cautious stance disappointed the market.

--U.S. bond yields rose rapidly, with the 10-year yield rising from 4.12% to 4.24%; the U.S. dollar index strengthened simultaneously.

--U.S. stocks and gold prices experienced short-term downturns as the market reassessed the possibility of a rate cut in September.

·Market cuts expectations for September interest rate cuts

--Before the meeting, the market expected the probability of starting interest rate cuts in September to be nearly 50%, and dropped to less than 30% after the meeting.

--Institutional analysis said that the Fed is obviously not ready to "act quickly" and will wait for more data confirmation before taking measures.

--This change prompted investors to readjust their pricing of policy paths before the end of the year, and risk aversion increased.

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's July 2025 interest-rate meeting

· Avoid talking about September policy

--"Despite slowing economic growth, the Federal Reserve is ready to take action if necessary.He also stressed that the central bank has not "made any decision" on possible policy adjustments in September.”

· Fed interest rate decision not affected by Trump policies

--"We believe that the current monetary policy stance allows us to respond in a timely manner to potential changes in the economic situation.The Fed needs to confirm that President Trump's tariff policies will not turn into a major inducement to higher inflation.”

--"Whether to cut the current overnight interest rate of 4.25%-4.5% will depend entirely on the performance of the data.”

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's June 2025 interest-rate meeting

· keep interest rates unchanged

--"The Federal Reserve announced that it has decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time and maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. This is the fourth consecutive time that the Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged.”

--"This decision to suspend interest rate cuts has the unanimous support of all voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).”

· on macroeconomic

--"Although fluctuations in net exports have affected U.S. data, recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity is still expanding steadily.Unemployment remains low, labor market conditions remain good, and inflation remains slightly higher.”

--"Uncertainty related to the U.S. economic outlook has subsided, but remains high.”

· Continue to cut national debt

--"Will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities.The committee is firmly committed to supporting the goal of maximizing employment and returning inflation to 2%.”

--Starting from April this year, the Federal Reserve has further slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) action of reducing its balance sheet (shrinking balance sheet).Specifically, the monthly redemption limit for U.S. Treasuries was lowered from $25 billion to $5 billion, while leaving the monthly redemption limit for agency debt and agency MBS unchanged at $35 billion.

· Interest rate cuts open in the second half of the year

--Nick Timiraos, who is known as the "sounding board of the Federal Reserve", issued a document after the Federal Reserve meeting and pointed out that the Federal Reserve is open to interest rates in the second half of this year.Fed officials are waiting to see whether companies will respond to rising costs from tariffs by cutting profits or raising prices.”

--Timiraos believes that to restart interest rate cuts, Fed officials may need to see a weak labor market or stronger evidence that price increases caused by tariffs will be relatively mild.

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's June Interest Rate Decision: The Future is Full of Changes

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's June 2025 interest-rate meeting

· Not in a hurry to adjust policy interest rates

--"There is no rush to make policy adjustments. In the current economic situation, the Federal Reserve" is fully qualified to wait and further understand the possible direction of the economy."”

· Inflation becomes more obvious in the summer, and the impact of tariffs remains to be observed

--"We have seen a slight increase in commodity inflation and do expect it to become more pronounced this summer."”

--"It will take some time to see the impact of tariff policies across the distribution chain of goods, and many of the products currently sold by retailers were imported months before the tariffs were imposed.Some impacts are already beginning to be seen, and more are expected to be seen in the coming months.”

--"Currently assessing the transmission path of tariff inflation is" very difficult to predict "

· The U.S. labor market is "low in hiring, low in firing" --"There is now a phenomenon in the U.S. labor market called" low hiring, low firing."”

--"If you lose your job, it's really difficult to find a job, but very few people are being laid off right now.This is a balance that we are watching very closely.”

--Real wages are still rising, and Powell called their growth a "healthy" rate."The labor market is not calling for interest rate cuts.

· Will you continue to serve as a Fed governor after the end of your term?

--"I'm not thinking about it, I'm focusing on my current job.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's June Interest Rate Decision: The Future is Full of Changes

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's May 2025 interest-rate meeting

· About economic activities

--"Although fluctuations in net exports affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace.Unemployment has stabilized at low levels in recent months and labor market conditions remain solid.”

--"Uncertainty about the economic outlook has further increased, and the committee is concerned about the risks to both parties posed by its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have increased.”

· with respect to inflation

--"Inflation is still slightly higher.”

· Keep policy interest rates unchanged

--"To support its goal, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%.”

--"When considering the extent and timing of further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range, the committee will carefully evaluate the data it receives, the changing outlook and the balance of risks."”

· Continue to monitor the impact of economic activity

--"In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of upcoming information on the economic outlook."”

--"Should risks arise that may hinder the achievement of the Committee's goals, the Committee will be prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance appropriately."The committee's assessment will consider a wide range of information, including information on labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, as well as financial and international developments.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's May interest-rate decision: Recession risks have been noted but have not yet been reflected in the economy

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's May 2025 interest-rate meeting

· Not in a hurry to adjust policy interest rates

--"The Fed does not need to rush to adjust interest rates, and the policy is moderately restrictive; the current uncertainty requires the Fed to continue to wait; Trump's request for a rate cut will not affect the Fed's work.”

· Risk of stagflation rises but is not reflected in economic data

--"If the significant tariff increases as announced continue, higher inflation will emerge.The Fed has an obligation to stabilize inflation expectations.The risks of rising unemployment and rising inflation have increased, but are not yet in the data.”

--"There are no signs of slowing economic growth in the actual economic data. The economy is in a stable state, but the uncertainty is very high and the economic downside risks have increased.”

· Wage growth slows and labor market is saturated

--"Wage growth continues to slow and the labor market has reached or is close to the highest employment level; if there is a contradiction between the dual goals, consider the distance from the goals and the time to close the gap."”

· U.S. debt unsustainable

- Not wanting to tighten financial conditions sharply at a time of economic weakness, U.S. debt is on an unsustainable path.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's May interest-rate decision: Recession risks have been noted but have not yet been reflected in the economy

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's March 2025 interest-rate meeting

· Continue to suspend interest rate cuts and slow down the pace of shrinking the balance sheet

--"During this interest-rate meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate within the target range of 4.25%-4.5%, and continue to implement the reduction of the balance sheet at the original pace.”

--"Starting in April, the Federal Reserve will begin to slow down the pace of shrinking its balance sheet, slowing the monthly ceiling on US debt reduction from US$25 billion to US$5 billion.”

--"Add the expression" increasing uncertainty in the economic outlook "and delete" employment and inflation are roughly balanced."”

· Employment is stable, inflation may rebound temporarily

--"The committee's judgment on employment and inflation is consistent with previous statements.”

--"Maintain the judgment that labor market conditions remain solid.”

--"The committee maintained the statement that" inflation remains somewhat elevated."”

--"The Federal Reserve raised its unemployment forecast for 2025 from 4.3% to 4.4%, and its expectations for inflation increased, raising PCE's inflation forecast to 2.7%.”

· Keep policy interest rates unchanged

--"During this interest-rate meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate within the target range of 4.25%-4.5%, and continue to implement the reduction of the balance sheet at the original pace.”

· Interest rate cuts during the year may be greater

--"The market expects the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in May to rise to 80.5%.”

--"Markets tend to underestimate interest rate cuts, and the Federal Reserve may implement greater easing.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: The Federal Reserve's March interest rate decision: Stay put, but slow down the balance sheet

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's March 2025 interest-rate meeting

· Talk about future monetary policy actions

--"Recent surveys have shown that economic uncertainty has intensified, but it remains to be seen how uncertainty will affect the economic outlook.”

--"The Fed does not need to rush to adjust its policy stance. The cost of waiting is very low. It is not in a hurry to cut interest rates in May.”

--"We have seen some signs of intensifying tightening in the money market, which means that the Federal Reserve will shrink its balance sheet at a slower rate and over a longer period of time.”

--"There are currently no plans to slow down the reduction of MBS because there is a strong desire for MBS to exit the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.”

· Although inflation has made progress, it is still high and the labor market is solid

--"Tariff policy is clearly part of the factor driving inflation, but in the Fed's baseline forecast, inflation will be temporary, while long-term inflation expectations will be flat or slightly lower, in line with the 2% target.”

--"Further progress in inflation this year may be delayed. If commodity inflation in the past two months continues, it will definitely be related to tariffs.”

--"Currently, the hiring rate and layoffs rate in the United States are at low levels. A significant increase in layoffs may quickly translate into unemployment. Layoffs are important to individuals, but they are not significant at the national level."

· Dot chart: Although the median forecast remains unchanged, officials 'expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 have generally weakened.

--"For 2025, among the 19 officials, 4 are not expected to cut interest rates (an increase of 3 from the previous time), 4 are expected to cut interest rates only once (an increase of 1), and 9 are expected to cut interest rates twice (a decrease of 1), only 2 are expected to cut interest rates three or more times (a decrease of 3)"

--"The median policy interest rate forecast in 2025 remains at 3.9%(interest rate cuts twice during the year), the median policy interest rate forecast in 2026 remains at medium 3.4%, and the long-term policy interest rate forecast remains at 3.0%.”

--"The median inflation forecast for PCE and core PCE in 2025 will be revised upwards by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively to 2.7% and 2.8%: both indicators will be 2.2% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. Long-term inflation forecasts are both 2.0%.”

· Financial market conditions (including stock markets) are important to the Fed

--"The Federal Reserve will not express opinions on the reasonable level of any market, but will focus on changes in economic data from a macro perspective.”

--"Changes in financial markets will have an impact on economic activity, but this impact needs to be substantial, sustained, and last long enough to attract the attention of the Federal Reserve.”

--"Market sentiment data, such as consumer confidence surveys, show concerns and downside risks, but these have not yet translated into significant weakness in actual economic activity."”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: The Federal Reserve's March interest rate decision: Stay put, but slow down the balance sheet

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's December 2024 interest-rate meeting

· The US economy continues to expand steadily

--"Recent data shows that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace.”

--"Since earlier this year, the labor market situation has generally eased, and the unemployment rate has increased, but it is still at a low level.”

· Inflation "still slightly above target"

--"Inflation is making progress towards the committee's 2% target, but is still slightly above the target.”

--"The committee is committed to achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation goals in the long term.”

--"The risks of achieving employment and inflation targets are roughly balanced.There is uncertainty about the economic outlook.”

· Reduce the policy interest rate by 25 basis points

--"The Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25%-4.50%."

· Continue to reduce holdings of national debt

--"The committee will continue to reduce the size of its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.”

--"The committee is firmly committed to supporting the goal of maximizing employment and restoring inflation to 2%.”

· Continue camera decision making

--"In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of the latest information on the economic outlook.”

--"Should risks arise that may hinder the achievement of the Committee's goals, the Committee will be prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance as appropriate."”

· bitmap

--"Raise the economic forecast for 24/25 years, lower the unemployment rate forecast, and raise the inflation forecast. The inflation forecast for 25 years will be raised by a large margin.”

--"The dot chart only guides interest rates twice throughout next year, showing a strong hawkish tendency.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's December Resolution: On the hawkish attitude after cutting interest rates by 25 basis points

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's December 2024 interest-rate meeting

· Talk about future monetary policy actions

--"After this interest rate cut, the Federal Reserve has lowered its policy rate by a full 100 basis points from its peak. Now that the monetary policy stance is significantly less restrictive than before, policymakers can be more cautious when considering more interest rate adjustments.”

--"Any Fed decision to cut interest rates in 2025 will be based on upcoming data, not current economic conditions."”

--"As the Federal Reserve strives to keep the labor market strong while keeping inflation down to 2%, a rate hike next year seems unlikely.”

· Affirming the performance of the US economy

--"The overall economy is performing strongly; economic growth is faster than expected in the second half of 2024; there is no reason to believe that an economic downturn is more likely than usual; it is clear that the United States has avoided a recession: Very optimistic about the economy.”

--"Policymakers generally expect GDP growth to remain strong.”

· Talking about inflation and the job market

--"Given that year-on-year inflation data is still sticky, we will continue to pay attention to the progress of inflation improvement in 2025.”

--"When considering further interest rate cuts, we will focus on improving inflation, and we have made little significant progress on the 12-month inflation data.”

--"Consumers feel more the impact of high prices than the direct effect of high inflation.”

· Some officials have begun to assess the potential impact of Trump's policies

--"Some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have begun a preliminary assessment of the possible impact of Trump's policies.”

--"As for Trump's tariff plan, it is too early to draw conclusions on how it will affect inflation.”

· The Federal Reserve has no intention of holding Bitcoin

--"The Federal Reserve does not intend to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet,"

--"We cannot hold Bitcoin.The Federal Reserve Act sets out what we can have, and we have no intention of seeking to change the law.This is something Congress has to consider, but we are not seeking change at the Fed.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's December Resolution: On the hawkish attitude after cutting interest rates by 25 basis points

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's November 2024 interest-rate meeting

· The US economy continues to expand steadily

--"The overall labor situation in the United States has eased, and the unemployment rate has increased but remains low.”

--"The U.S. economic outlook is uncertain, and the Fed will continue to focus on the risks it faces in achieving its goals (employment & inflation).”

· Inflation "still a little high"

--"Inflation is moving further towards the FOMC Committee's 2% target, but it is still slightly above the target.”

--"The risks in achieving employment and inflation targets are broadly balanced.”

· Reduce the policy interest rate by 25 basis points

--"Lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.50% and 4.75%.”

· Continue to reduce holdings of national debt

--"The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of treasury bonds, agency bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting: Core inflation slowly declines and interest rates continue in December

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's November 2024 interest-rate meeting

· On the impact of the US election on the Federal Reserve's policy path

--"In the short term, elections will not have any impact on our policy decisions.Many factors affect the economy, and anyone working in forecasting will tell you that the economy is difficult to predict.”

--"Whether and to what extent these policies will have an impact on our goals of full employment and price stability."We do not speculate, speculate, or make assumptions.”

"In principle, any government policy or policy set by Congress can have economic effects that over time can have an impact on our pursuit of dual goals."”

· About the rise in bond yields

--"We have been watching the rise in bond yields, which are nowhere near where they were a year ago.“

--"These changes seem to be mainly due to rising inflation expectations, but rather to a perception that growth is stronger and that downside risks are likely to be smaller."”

--"If you remember the 5 percent yield on the 10-year Treasury note, people came to extremely important conclusions, only to find that, you know, three weeks later, the 10-year Treasury note yield fell by 50 basis points.So, you know, what really matters is the major financial changes that persist.”

· What circumstances might lead to a pause in interest rate cuts?

--"As we approach neutral or near neutral levels, it may be appropriate to slow down our pace of reducing restrictions."”

· US finances are unsustainable

--"That is, U.S. finances--the federal government's fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path.Our debt levels are not unsustainable relative to the economy.”

--"We see this from, you know, you have very large deficits at full employment and expect that to continue.So, you know, it's important to solve this problem.It is ultimately a threat to the economy.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to:

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's September 2024 interest-rate meeting

· Observed a slowdown in employment growth

--"Employment growth has slowed, unemployment has increased but remains low.”

· Inflation is moving towards set target

--"Inflation is moving further towards the FOMC Committee's 2% target, but it is still slightly above the target.”

--"The committee has increased confidence that inflation can be sustained close to 2% and believes that the risks in achieving employment and inflation targets are broadly balanced.”

· Reduce the policy interest rate by 50 basis points

--"Given the progress in inflation and the balance of risks, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5% to 4.75% to 5%.”

· Reduce the policy interest rate by 50 basis points

--"Given the progress in inflation and the balance of risks, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5% to 4.75% to 5%.”

"The Committee will carefully evaluate future data, changing prospects and risk balances as it considers further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range."”

--Delete "The Committee predicts that it is not appropriate to reduce the target range until it is more confident that inflation continues to move towards 2%."

· Add "Support Employment"

--"The committee is firmly committed to supporting full employment and returning inflation to its target of 2%.”

· FOMC voting committee changes

--"Delete" Chicago Fed President Austan D.Goolsbee voted as an alternate member at this meeting.”

--Yes vote: Add Cleveland Fed President Beth M.Hammack

--Voted against a 50 basis point rate cut was Michelle W.Bowman, who preferred to cut the target range of the federal funds rate by just 25 basis points at this meeting

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: The Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision: The policy of exceeding expectations has seen a major turning point

Review of the Press Conference of the Federal Reserve's September 2024 Interest Rate Negotiation Meeting

· U.S. growth rate is "steady"

--Economic activity continues to expand at a "steady rate" and growth in the second half of this year is expected to be similar to that in the first half."The U.S. economy is in good shape, and our decision today is aimed at keeping it that way.”

--"The U.S. economy currently shows no signs of recession, nor does it believe that a recession is imminent.”

· on inflation

--"Inflation is closer to the target, upside risks to inflation have diminished, while downside risks to the labor market have increased.“

--He did not announce that the Fed had defeated inflation, but expressed his belief that inflation would fall to its target level of 2%.He added: "While people may no longer think about inflation as frequently as before, they may indeed notice higher prices, which is painful.”

· There is no fixed interest rate path in the future, and decisions need to be made based on data cameras.

--Taking into account risk balance, the interest rate will be lowered by 50 basis points today, but no fixed interest rate path has been set, and meetings will be held one by one to make decisions.As usual, Powell reiterated that the next step depends on economic data.

--Powell emphasized that no one should think that a 50 basis point interest rate cut is a new trend, and should not draw such a conclusion based solely on this interest rate cut.In other words, don't bet on a next 50 basis point rate cut.

· Labor market conditions are good

--"The labor market is in good shape, and I hope it can maintain this state; but if the labor market unexpectedly slows down, then the Federal Reserve will accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts."Powell believes that the current unemployment rate of 4.2% is very healthy. The rise in the unemployment rate is partly due to the influx of immigrants. The rise in the unemployment rate is also due to the slowdown in recruitment.

· Neutral interest rates are much higher than before the epidemic; there is no plan to stop shrinking the balance sheet in the near future

--Regarding the neutral interest rate, Powell said he did not know where the specific level was, but it should be much higher than in the past (before the epidemic).When asked about the balance sheet, he said that the reserves are stable and sufficient and are expected to remain for some time, and there is no plan to stop shrinking the balance sheet in the near future.

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: The Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision: The policy of exceeding expectations has seen a major turning point

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's July 2024 interest-rate meeting

· Stay put as scheduled, but interest rate cuts may be discussed at the September meeting

--"The target range of the federal funds rate remains unchanged as scheduled, maintaining a level of 5.25%-5.5%. All Fed officials participating in the meeting agreed.”

Powell admitted that more and more Fed officials attending this meeting believe that if conditions are met, the next meeting can formally discuss starting a rate cut.

· In this interest rate statement, there are major changes to the expression of the economy

--In the interest rate statement, the expression of the current economic situation was changed from "employment growth remains strong" to "employment growth has slowed down and unemployment has increased"

--The outlook for the future has been changed from "the committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks" to "the committee is concerned about the risks of its dual mission"

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision: interest rates remain unchanged, September interest rate cuts are put on the agenda

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's July 2024 interest-rate meeting

· About the September interest rate cut

--Regarding whether interest rates will be cut in September, Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve will not make a decision on future meetings, and the decision will still depend on data-dependent, but not on a certain data.

--If the data develops as expected, the fastest rate cut could be September.

--If inflation falls quickly, interest rates may be cut even though the economy and employment remain resilient; if inflation becomes sticky (other conditions remain unchanged), it may wait longer.

· About the job market

--"The Federal Reserve focuses on dual goals and views both conditions equally.“

--"The job market is gradually normalized, and that's what we want to see.“

--"If employment data cools faster than expected, we will respond.“

· on economic

--Powell clearly described the economic situation in his opening remarks as "strong but not overheated".

--In addition, it mentions the indicator "Private Domestic Final Purchases"(PDFP) more than once as an endorsement of the strong economy and demand.

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision: interest rates remain unchanged, September interest rate cuts are put on the agenda

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's June 2024 interest-rate meeting

· Continue to keep policy interest rates unchanged and progress is made in inflation governance

--"In support of its goal, the committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%.When considering any adjustment to the target range of the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully evaluate the data received, the changing outlook and the balance of risk.”

--"In recent months, moderate further progress has been made towards achieving the committee's 2 percent inflation target.”

· Interest rate dot chart cashes upside risks, and differences in the number of interest rate cuts

--"With a slight increase in inflation forecasts, interest rate forecasts have also been raised.After the increase in long-term interest rate forecast in March, this meeting will continue to increase the level of 0.2%.”

--One interest rate cut during the year (7th place) vs two interest rates (8th place)

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's June 2024 Interest Rate Decision: Even if others cut interest rates, I will remain firm

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's June 2024 interest-rate meeting

· Repeat the risk-balanced management posture again

--"We know that reducing policy tightening too early or too much can reverse progress on inflation; at the same time, reducing policy tightening too late or too little can excessively weaken economic activity and employment."“

· Long-term interest rates may be higher

--"There is an emerging view that interest rates will not-are unlikely to fall to pre-epidemic levels, when rates were very low, based on recent historical data.“

--"Many officials do believe that interest rates will not return to pre-epidemic levels.“

· Service industry inflation deserves vigilance, American wages are high

--"In some non-housing service areas, you will see that inflation is still rising, which may be related to fluctuations in wages and commodity prices.Import prices of goods have increased surprisingly, which is a bit hard to understand.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's June 2024 Interest Rate Decision: Even if others cut interest rates, I will remain firm

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's May 2024 interest-rate meeting

· Continue to keep policy interest rates unchanged, official announcements slow down and shrink the balance sheet

--"The committee believes that the risks of achieving employment and inflation targets are becoming better balanced.The economic outlook is uncertain and the committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks.To support these goals, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%.”

--"There has been a lack of further progress in meeting the Committee's 2% inflation target in recent months" and "The risks of achieving employment and inflation targets over the past year have become better balanced."”

--"Starting from June, the monthly pace of reducing national debt will be slowed down.In his speech, Powell said that slowing down the balance sheet reduction is not lenient, nor does it mean that the total reduction in the balance sheet will be smaller than expected, but is to ensure a smooth transition more gradually.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: The Federal Reserve's May Interest Rate Decision: Six consecutive times to slow down the pace of shrinking the balance sheet since June

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's May 2024 interest-rate meeting

· It takes longer to gain confidence in inflation

--"We will not be satisfied with an inflation rate of 3% and will gradually restore the inflation rate to 2%.“

--"My expectation is to see inflation fall this year, but my confidence has dropped.”

· The labor market remains relatively strong, denying stagflation.

--"The labor market continues to balance, and the latest JOLTS data shows that resignation and hiring rates have returned to normal levels.Labor demand has cooled but remains strong.”

- -"The United States is still at a very healthy level of growth and has not seen stagnation.”

· Without considering further interest rate hikes, postponing interest rate cuts is appropriate

--"It is unlikely that the next policy rate will be raised. If the current restrictions are not enough to bring inflation back to 2%, a rate increase will be raised, but there is currently no evidence of this.”

--"The labor market remains strong, but inflation is moving sideways, and postponing interest rate cuts may be appropriate.”

· Two paths would allow the Fed to consider cutting interest rates

--"Confidence in inflation back to 2% has increased, or the labor market has unexpectedly weakened.”

"A rise in unemployment above 4 percent can be considered an unexpected weakening, but a rise in unemployment must be meaningful before the Fed can act.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: The Federal Reserve's May Interest Rate Decision: Six consecutive times to slow down the pace of shrinking the balance sheet since June

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's March 2024 interest-rate meeting

· interest rate remains unchanged

--"The committee believes that the risks of achieving employment and inflation targets are becoming better balanced.The economic outlook is uncertain and the committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks.To support these goals, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%.”

· Don't consider cutting interest rates until you have "greater confidence" in lower inflation

--"The committee believes that lowering the target range is inappropriate until there is greater confidence that inflation continues to move towards 2%.”

· It is not far off to slow down the scale

--"The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of treasury bonds, agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as outlined in its previously announced plans.The committee is firmly committed to its goal of returning inflation to 2%.。”

· Continue to make discretionary decisions and adjust monetary policy as appropriate based on data

--"The Committee will be prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance as appropriate.The committee's assessment will consider a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflationary pressures, inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's March 2024 interest-rate resolution: Keep interest rates unchanged, slow down the balance sheet, shrink the balance sheet soon, or cut interest rates three times this year

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's March 2024 interest-rate meeting

· Interest rate cuts in 2024 are appropriate

--"It would be appropriate to start easing monetary policy sometime this year.“

--"Before cutting interest rates, we need more confidence that inflation continues to fall.”

--"The first interest rate cut has a significant impact.We can approach this issue carefully and let the data speak.”

--"If there is significant weakness in the labor market, that will be a reason to cut interest rates."”

· Inflation has not changed the overall picture

--"January CPI and PCE data were quite high, but may be due to seasonal adjustments.We will not overreact or ignore these two months of data.”

--"Although recent data has changed, the inflation data has not really changed the overall situation, that is, inflation is gradually declining and the road is a bit bumpy.”

--"Looking for data to confirm last year's low reading gives us more confidence that the inflation rate we are seeing does continue to fall to 2%."”

· Unemployment is expected to rise

--"The situation is good, and I don't see any cracks in the labor market at present.”

--"We do expect unemployment to rise.”

· Slow down and shrink the watch in sight

--"It is appropriate to slow down the pace of shrinking the watch in the near future.”

--"We are studying the best speed and scale to slow down the reduction of the balance sheet. There is no urgent need to make decisions on the reduction of the balance sheet.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's March 2024 interest-rate resolution: Keep interest rates unchanged, slow down the balance sheet, shrink the balance sheet soon, or cut interest rates three times this year

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's January 2024 interest-rate meeting

· interest rate remains unchanged

--"The committee aims to achieve an employment rate and inflation rate of 2% over the longer term.To support its goal, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.25%.”

· Don't consider cutting interest rates until it is determined that inflation is lower

--"When considering any adjustment to the federal funds rate target range, the committee will carefully evaluate future data, changing prospects and risk balances."The committee believes that lowering the target range is inappropriate until confidence that inflation continues to move closer to 2%.”

· Economic activity has been expanding steadily

--"Recent indicators show that economic activity has been expanding steadily.Job growth has slowed since the beginning of last year, but remains strong and unemployment remains low.”

· The language of austerity policy has been tempered

--"In determining the appropriate level of additional policy tightening, the Committee will consider the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lagging nature of monetary policy in its impact on economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial conditions."”

· The Fed's two major goals-promoting employment and controlling inflation-are moving towards balance

--"The committee believes that the risks of achieving employment and inflation targets are becoming better balanced.The economic outlook is uncertain and the committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks.”

· Inflation remains high (consistent with last meeting)

--"Inflation has eased somewhat over the past year, but remains high.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's January 2024 Interest Rate Decision: Four consecutive times, interest rate cuts in March are expected to cool down

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's January 2024 interest-rate meeting

· Interest rates may have peaked, but March rate cut is not a benchmark scenario

--"Policy rates are likely to peak during this tightening cycle, and it may be appropriate to start reducing policy restrictions sometime this year."“

--"After the interest rate cut starts, whether the cycle starts or a one-time behavior will be determined by future data.”

--"The March interest rate cut is not a benchmark scenario.”

--"The balance sheet issue will be discussed in depth at the next meeting. Whether ON RRP is zero will not affect the process of shrinking the balance sheet.”

· Inflation may still rebound

--"Inflation data over the past six months are good signs, but we need to see more signs of continued positive inflation.”

--"There is a risk that inflation will accelerate again.”

--"We were encouraged by the progress in inflation, but we did not declare victory.”

· Economic growth will moderate

--"High interest rates also seem to put pressure on corporate fixed investment.”

--"We expect economic growth to moderate as supply chains and labor markets normalize.”

· Labor market tends to balance

--"The labor market remains tight, but supply and demand have continued to balance over the past three months.”

--"We want to see a strong labor market, not a weak labor market.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: Federal Reserve's January 2024 Interest Rate Decision: Four consecutive times, interest rate cuts in March are expected to cool down

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's December 2023 interest-rate meeting

· interest rate remains unchanged

--"The committee strives to achieve maximum employment and 2% inflation over the long term.To support these goals, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%.The Committee will continue to evaluate additional information and its impact on monetary policy.”

· Inflation remains high and economic activity growth slows

--"Inflation has eased somewhat over the past year, but remains high.”

--"The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses could put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation.”

--"Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed from its strong momentum in the third quarter.”

· The language of austerity policy has been tempered

--"In determining the appropriate level of additional policy tightening, the Committee will consider the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lagging nature of monetary policy in its impact on economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial conditions."”

· Continue to reduce financial assets

--"The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of treasury bonds, agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as outlined in its previously announced plans.The committee is firmly committed to its goal of returning inflation to 2%.”

· Continue to monitor financial indicators

--"In assessing appropriate monetary policy positions, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of new information on the economic outlook.Should risks arise that may hinder the achievement of the Committee's goals, the Committee will be prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance as appropriate.”

"The committee's assessment will consider a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, as well as financial and international developments.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: The Federal Reserve's December Interest Rate Decision: Still not moving on and interest rate cuts have begun to come into view

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's December 2023 interest-rate meeting

· Interest rates are still possible, but Powell himself believes there is little chance of interest rate hikes next year

--"The committee is taking caution and cannot clearly rule out the possibility of raising interest rates at this time.“

--"Interest rates have entered restricted territory, but policymakers do not want to rule out the possibility of further interest rate hikes if conditions are right and are prepared to tighten monetary policy further.”

· Inflation has eased significantly

--"The committee remains committed to its target of reducing inflation to 2%. Inflation, while still high, has eased significantly. We welcome this progress, but we need to see more.”

--"Opinion polls show that ordinary Americans still live with high prices, which is something people don't like.”

· Interest rate cuts have entered view

--"The question of when it is appropriate to start relaxing existing policy restrictions is beginning to emerge in people's minds, and this is obviously a topic that is being discussed around the world and one that we are discussing at the meeting today.”

--"Even if there is no recession, the Federal Reserve is willing to cut interest rates.We won't wait until the 2% inflation rate to cut interest rates, because that will be too late, the target will be exceeded, and it will take some time for the policy to affect the economy.”

· Economic recession will affect interest rate cuts

--"There is almost no reason to think that the economy will fall into recession now, but we cannot rule out an unexpected event next year. This possibility will always exist, and a recession will seriously affect the decision to cut interest rates.”

· Labor market tends to balance

--"The labor market is becoming more balanced, wages have cooled, and although still slightly above levels consistent with 2% inflation, the overall labor market situation is positive.”

--"Employment growth remains strong, but given population growth and labor force participation rates, employment growth is falling back to more sustainable levels, and the era of severe labor shortages is over.”

For a complete analysis of this meeting, please refer to: The Federal Reserve's December Interest Rate Decision: Still not moving on and interest rate cuts have begun to come into view

Review of the statement of the Federal Reserve's November 2023 interest-rate meeting

· interest rate remains unchanged

--"The committee strives to achieve maximum employment and 2% inflation targets in the long term.To support these goals, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%.”

· Inflation remains high

--"The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.A tighter financial and credit environment for households and businesses could put pressure on economic activity, hiring and inflation.The extent of these effects is uncertain.The Committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks.”

· Employment remains strong

--"Employment growth has slowed from earlier this year, but remains strong and unemployment remains low.”

· Continue to reduce financial assets

--"The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in previously announced plans.The committee is firmly committed to its goal of returning inflation to 2%.”

· Continue to monitor financial indicators

- "In assessing appropriate monetary policy positions, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of future economic data."If risks arise that hinder the achievement of the committee's dual goals, the committee will be prepared to adjust the appropriate monetary policy stance.”

Review of the press conference of the Federal Reserve's November 2023 interest-rate meeting

· Powell emphasizes the importance of keeping inflation down

"My colleagues and I remain focused on our dual mission of promoting maximum jobs and stable prices for the American people.We understand the difficulties caused by high inflation, and we remain firmly committed to the goal of reducing inflation to 2%.“

· Powell expressed satisfaction with current economic activity but felt the impact of higher interest rates

--"Recent economic data suggests that economic activity has been growing strongly, well above earlier expectations.Driven by a surge in consumer spending, real GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter.”

--"After a rebound in the summer, activity in the real estate industry has leveled off and is still well below levels of a year ago, mainly due to rising mortgage rates.Higher interest rates also appear to be putting pressure on corporate fixed asset investment.”

· The labor market remains tight, but supply and demand continue to balance

--"In the past three months, an average of 266,000 jobs have been added per month, a strong growth rate that is still lower than earlier this year.

--"Unemployment remains low at 3.8%.Strong job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the labor supply: the labor participation rate has increased since the end of last year, with the most significant increase in the labor participation rate among people aged 25 to 54, and the number of immigrants has rebounded to pre-epidemic levels.“

--"Nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing, and job vacancies have fallen so far this year.Although the gap between employment and workers has narrowed, labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers.”

· Inflation remains well above the Fed's long-term target of 2%

--"In the 12 months to September, the overall PCE price index rose 3.4%.Excluding volatile food and energy categories, the core PCE price index rose 3.7%.”

--"Inflation has slowed since the middle of last year, and summer values have been quite favorable.But months of good data are just the beginning of building confidence that inflation is continuing to fall towards our goal.There is still a long way to go to keep inflation down to 2%.”

Timing of the 2023FOMC Regular Interest Rate Negotiation Meeting (Completed):

Data source: Federal Reserve official website

Results of the 2023FOMC Interest Rate Negotiation Meeting and Interest Rate Trend (Completed):

Data source: Federal Reserve official website

Results of the 2024FOMC Interest Rate Negotiation Meeting and Interest Rate Trend (Completed):

Data source: Federal Reserve official website