Market analysis

昨日美股在辉达(NVDA)财报公布前呈现观望态度，市场预期其波动将落在正负 6% 之间，而先前已公布财报的四大云端服务供应商（CSP）皆展现强劲的 AI 基础设施投资动能，并承诺扩大资本支出，市场在审慎乐观下带动主指小幅收涨。然而，盘后辉达公布的财报虽然营收与获利优于市场预期，但财测展望不及市场预期，盘后股价下跌超过 3%，同步压抑标普盘后走低。类股方面，能源表现最为亮眼，受惠 EIA 原油库存数据显示需求强劲，油价走高推升相关个股。房地产及资讯科技类股表现居前；反观通讯服务类股因 Paramount(PARA)遭大摩下调目标价股价重挫 6.5% 拖累。个股方面，波音(BA)因透露有信心在 10 月底前提升 737 产量，股价微幅上涨；资料库平台开发商 MongoDB(MDB)财报大幅优于市场预期，股价暴涨近 38%。惠普(HPQ)受惠于AI PC导入与Windows 11升级周期推动，获利展望优于市场预期，盘后股价一度大涨超过 7%，但市场对PC产业回升仍保持审慎，涨幅全数回吐。

 

Quick view of financial report

Huida estimates Q3 revenue to reach US$54 billion. AI demand continues to be strong but risks in the China market intensify

NVDA (NVDA) announced its second-quarter financial report for the fiscal year 2026, with revenue reaching US$46.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56%, which was better than market expectations. It also predicts that revenue in the third quarter will reach US$54 billion (±2%), once again demonstrating the strong demand of the generative AI wave for its chip products. However, due to data center revenue being slightly lower than expected and China's H20 chip sales still being uncertain, the stock price fell by more than 3% after the financial report was announced, and the market value of hundreds of billions of dollars was once wiped out. Despite this, CEO Huang Renxun continued to send long-term positive signals, saying that the potential of China's AI market is as high as US$50 billion, and revealed that Blackwell chips are expected to launch a downgraded version to enter the China market, trying to strike a balance between policy restrictions and market potential.

• 资料中心营收稳健成长但略低于预期
  第二季资料中心营收达411亿美元，年增56%，占整体营收88%，但仍略低于市场预估的413.4亿美元。辉达表示，其中338亿美元来自GPU等运算业务，73亿美元来自网路设备，后者年增近一倍。分析师指出，尽管增长强劲，但大型云端服务业者（如Meta、微软、亚马逊）近期AI投资趋于审慎，使短期成长稍显放缓。

• 中国H20晶片营收仍为零，Q3亦未纳入预测
  受美中科技战影响，辉达Q2未对中国出货任何H20晶片，也未将中国销售纳入Q3预测。虽然与美国政府达成15%销售分润的出口协议，但尚未正式立法。若解禁，H20晶片潜在贡献营收达20亿至50亿美元，但目前仍面临政策与地缘政治双重不确定性。

• Blackwell晶片可望降规出口，中国市场估值500亿美元
  黄仁勋透露，辉达正与美国政府沟通，希望推动Blackwell晶片的降阶版销往中国。他强调中国是全球第二大AI市场，今年潜在机会高达500亿美元，若能切入，未来每年成长可达50%。然而，美方对核心AI技术出口仍抱持高度戒心，出口许可进展需密切关注。

• AI基础建设成长动能强劲，主力转向主权级市场
  辉达CFO Colette Kress指出，全球AI基础建设至今已投资6,000亿美元，预估至2030年将达3至4兆美元。除了云端客户，辉达主打的「主权AI」计划（向各国政府销售AI晶片与软体）预计2025年营收将突破200亿美元，成为下一波成长动能。

• 财报反应平淡但基本面未变，长线趋势仍看俏
  虽然辉达财报优于预期但未达「惊艳」水准，股价盘后回落，部分反映投资人对中国风险与高基期估值的谨慎情绪。不过多数分析师认为，辉达在AI晶片领域的领导地位稳固，加上持续产品创新与策略调整，仍是AI世代的核心受益者，短期震荡不改长期成长潜力。

 

Snowflake raises annual revenue forecast, strong demand for AI data analysis drives up stock price rises 13%

After cloud data analysis platform Snowflake (SNOW) announced its second-quarter financial results for the fiscal year 2026, it announced that it would raise its annual product revenue forecast to US$4.4 billion, better than the original estimate of US$4.33 billion, driving its stock price to rise 13% in after-hours trading. As enterprises accelerate their AI infrastructure and generative AI (GenAI) application deployment, Snowflake has become the platform of choice to simplify AI analysis processes, and continues to benefit from the strong market demand for cloud-native data management and cross-cloud deployment.

• AI驱动企业数据基础建设转型
  企业对生成式AI的应用正快速扩展，Snowflake作为资料堆叠与AI整合的中枢平台，在分析工作负载与模型部署方面具高度弹性，有效满足跨云环境的使用需求。

• 云端平台合作深化，Azure成长亮眼
  Snowflake支援多家云端平台，当中微软 (MSFT) 的Azure在EMEA（欧洲、中东、非洲）市场表现尤为突出，年成长达40%，成为带动区域性成长的重要引擎。

• 财测上调反映客户需求强劲
  公司最新预测年度产品营收达44亿美元，较上季预估上调7,000万美元。第2季产品营收达10.9亿美元，符合市场预期，剩余履约义务（RPO）达69亿美元，年增33%，显示未来营收动能充足。

• AI应用将推动下一波成长
  分析师普遍认为，Snowflake将随著AI导入加速持续受惠，尤其在客户开发自有GenAI应用程式时，平台能协助企业整合资料、模型与推理流程，具备高度竞争力。

• 投资人信心回温，股价反应正面
  财报发布后Snowflake股价大涨13%，显示市场对其AI潜力与营收成长动能重拾信心。随著AI相关资本支出扩大，Snowflake有望成为企业级AI堆叠不可或缺的一环。

 

CrowdStrike predicts Q3 revenue will be weaker than expected, dragged down by the after-impact of the previously updated disaster

Security company CrowdStrike (CRWD) announced that its second-quarter earnings performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue increasing 21% year-on-year to US$1.17 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share reaching US$0.93, both better than analysts 'estimates. However, the company forecast third-quarter revenue to fall in the range of $1.21 billion to $1.22 billion, slightly below market expectations of $1.23 billion, causing its share price to fall nearly 3% in after-hours trading. This reflects the crisis of trust and compensation measures caused by previous Windows update mistakes, which continue to affect the pace of subscription revenue and financial performance.

• 短期营收受补偿措施压力
  为挽回客户信任，CrowdStrike推出补偿方案，允许客户延长使用期或增加产品模组，预估对全年营收每季产生1,000万至1,500万美元的影响。

• 停机事件后续成本高昂
  公司表示，第三季预计因停机相关支出将支付约5,100万美元现金，显示其灾后修复与风险控管成本仍在持续。

• 第二季财报优于市场预期
  尽管前景保守，第二季产品营收与盈余表现皆超越市场预期。非GAAP每股盈余为0.93美元，远高于分析师预估的0.83美元，凸显核心业务仍具韧性。

• 客户续约结构延后收入确认
  补偿方案虽已在本财年结束，但部分客户选择延后付款或扩展合约内容，导致收入确认时间点后移，压抑短期成长数据。

• 基础实力仍强，股价回调属技术性反应
  即便Q3财测偏保守，CrowdStrike年初以来股价已上涨约24%。分析师普遍认为其长期在资安领域的市场定位与技术优势未受根本动摇。

 

HP benefited from AI PC demand and Windows 11 upgrades, Q3 revenue exceeded expectations

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) announced its third-quarter financial report for the fiscal year 2025. Driven by the introduction of AI PC and the Windows 11 upgrade cycle, revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to US$13.93 billion, exceeding market expectations. Although the printing business is still facing downward pressure, the personal systems business performed strongly, indicating that companies and consumers are accelerating the replacement of old equipment in the light of security and performance considerations. The company also stressed that the supply chain has shifted significantly from China to Southeast Asia and Mexico in response to geopolitical and cost fluctuations.

• AI与升级周期驱动换机潮
  PC个人系统营收年增6%至99.3亿美元，反映Windows 10支援即将结束所带来的升级需求，加上AI PC导入初期阶段，促使企业与消费者提前采购具备AI加速能力的新机种。

• 供应链重组应对贸易政策变动
  HP执行长表示，已将大多数销往北美的生产从中国转移至东南亚、墨西哥及部分美国工厂，以分散风险并减少对中国依赖，仅保留小量低价产品在中制。

• 打印业务持续下滑
  打印业务营收下滑4%至40亿美元，反映企业办公室需求尚未全面复苏，加上市场转向数位化工作流程压缩传统印表机需求。

• 盈余预测符合市场预期
  公司预估第4季调整后每股盈余为0.87至0.97美元，符合分析师平均预测的0.92美元；本季调整后EPS为0.75美元，亦符合预期，显示营运稳定。

• 市场反应平淡但基本面改善
  尽管财报优异，HP股价盘后小跌约2%，显示市场对PC产业回升仍保持审慎。但长期来看，AI PC渗透率提高与硬体汰旧换新循环可望持续支撑成长动能。

 

MongoDB's earnings beat expectations, AI-native customers drove growth momentum, and its share price soared 37%

Database cloud platform MongoDB (MDB)'s share price surged 37% after announcing its second-quarter financial results for the fiscal year 2026, reflecting the market's positive reaction to its revenue and profits that were better than expected, as well as optimistic financial forecasts. The company pointed out that AI-native companies have adopted its platform in large numbers, pushing the number of customers to a record high in the first half of the year. MongoDB further revised its full-year revenue and earnings per share forecasts to strengthen its market positioning as a core infrastructure provider for AI applications.

• 财报全面优于预期
  MongoDB第二季营收年增24%至5.91亿美元，优于市场预估的5.56亿美元；调整后每股盈余达1.00美元，远高于预期的0.66美元，显示营运杠杆持续改善。

• 云端服务Atlas成长稳健
  Atlas云端资料库服务年增29%，持续成为主要成长动能来源。CEO指出，去年开始部署的大型工作负载已逐步进入扩张期，推动该业务加速成长。

• 客户数创历史同期新高
  公司上半年新增超过5,000位客户，创历来同期最高纪录，并表示这波成长多来自AI原生企业，显示MongoDB在AI时代的市场吸引力不断提升。

• 上调全年营收与获利展望
  MongoDB预估2026财年营收将达234亿至236亿美元，优于前次预测的225亿至229亿美元；每股盈余预测则从原本的2.94至3.12美元大幅上修至3.64至3.73美元。

• 聚焦大型企业策略奏效
  MongoDB逐步减少对中小型企业的依赖，转向大型企业客户，CEO表示这项策略「已开始显现成效」，有助于拉高平均订阅价值并强化长期稳定成长潜力。

 

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Trump plans to control the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and strongly fires Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, sparking legal and market controversy

U.S. President Trump recently announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and said he would have a "majority" on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the short term to promote interest rate cuts. The move triggered market shocks and constitutional disputes. Cook strongly stated that he would not resign and would sue the president for illegal abuse of power. Trump's attempt to lower interest rates by restructuring the Fed's Board of Governors has aroused high concerns about the independence of the Fed, and the incident may eventually turn into a Supreme Court constitutional lawsuit.

• President attempts to reshape Fed policy direction
  川普表示，他已提名3名理事（包括Cook的接替者Stephen Miran），即将掌握理事会多数，意图推动快速降息。他批评现任Fed主席鲍尔利率维持过高，阻碍房市与经济扩张。

• The dismissal triggered legal controversy
  川普以涉嫌抵押诈欺为由开除Cook，指控她在申请房贷时作出虚假陈述。然而联准会与法律界普遍认为，总统只能在「具正当理由」（for cause）下解雇理事，并非单凭指控或行政决定。Cook律师已表明将提告，并挑战总统的解职合法性。

• Federal Reserve emphasizes independence and legal framework
  Fed发表声明指出，将尊重法院裁决，并重申理事具有固定任期与保护机制，是货币政策独立的基础。此举旨在避免政策被短期政治压力所左右，维护长期经济稳定。

• Legal challenges threaten to turn into constitutional crisis
  Cook为首位任职联准会的非裔女性理事，其15年任期原至2038年。法律专家指出，本案若无先例，将可能进入最高法院，对总统对独立机构人事的干预权限立下重大裁定。

• The market reaction was initially mild, but there were uncertain risks
  虽短期股市未出现剧烈波动，美元指数与黄金价格已出现异动，反映资金转向避险。若未来联准会政策走向明显受政治干预，可能动摇投资人对美国金融制度的信心。

 

Trump tariffs offset India-Russia oil dividend, bilateral relations fell to a new low

In recent years, India has saved about US$17 billion in energy expenditures by significantly expanding Russian crude oil imports. However, Trump's latest addition of punitive tariffs of up to 50% may cause India's export losses to US$37 billion, offsetting all savings. This move has had a serious impact on India's labor-intensive industries and plunged it into difficult choices on the trilateral balance strategy of the United States, China and Russia.

• Russian oil dividend swallowed up by tariffs
  印度自 2022 年俄乌战争爆发后，扩大俄油进口，原先几乎为零的占比现已提升至 40%。虽每桶平均比国际市场便宜 7%，但川普实施的新关税政策将导致印度出口美国的金额减少逾 40%，特别冲击纺织、宝石与珠宝等就业密集型产业。

• Energy and strategic dilemmas intertwined
  印度短期内无法全面放弃俄油供应，因其每日约进口 200 万桶，且若立即停止，国际油价恐飙升至每桶 200 美元。同时，印度也仍依赖俄罗斯在国防与地缘政治上的支持，使其难以在美俄之间选边站。

• Diplomatic response and negotiations with the United States
  印度表示愿增加美国能源进口，且双边正就能源安全、核能与关键矿物展开对话。但印度对美方「双重标准」有所不满，指出美国本身仍进口俄罗斯铀与化肥，却仅针对印度施压。

• China-India-Russia relations are warming up subtly
  在川普施压下，印度近期外交频繁，包括高层访俄与总理莫迪即将出访中国。尽管不排除与中俄深化合作，但印度仍对中印关系保持高度戒慎，尚未考虑与习近平及普丁举行三边会谈。

• The world watches and sees India's reaction
  专家认为，此次事件或成为其他国家观察美国对外经济施压底线的试金石。若连印度都难以抵抗美方压力，其他新兴经济体更难自保。此外，一旦印度失去部分出口市场，竞争国如中国、越南、墨西哥、巴基斯坦等将趁势填补空缺。