Market analysis

经历上周最后两个交易日的回档后，美股周一迎来强劲反弹。其中标普 500 指数上涨 1.5%，创下自 5 月以来最大单日涨幅，将近 430 档成分股收高，反映市场风险偏好明显回升。此波上涨由科技巨头领军，辉达（NVDA）、博通（AVGO）、Alphabet（GOOGL）及 Meta（META）均有 3% 以上涨幅，小型股指数罗素 2000 也劲扬 2.1%。贸易政策方面，欧盟宣布暂缓对美报复性关税六个月，等待新协议谈判结果。美国则针对印度课征 25% 关税，而川普则表示若印度继续自俄罗斯大量进口石油，将启动更高关税与次级制裁。尽管如此，美股有企业 25Q2 财报撑场，随著公布业绩的公司数越来越多，表现出来的结果也越来越好，EPS 优于预期的比例、幅度及成长率皆越来越好；另一方面，由于上周五就业数据疲弱，旧金山联准会银行总裁 Daly 表示，随著劳动市场转弱及未见到关税造成通膨重启，推动市场降息预期升温。根据 FedWatch 数据来看，9 月降息机率从前一个交易日 80.3% 跃升至 94.4%。类股方面，通讯服务类股在 Meta、Alphabet、Netflix（NFLX）带动下表现最佳；资讯科技类股受半导体强势推动，同样表现不俗。其中提供高效能电源管理解决方案的 Monolithic Power（MPWR）劲扬 5.7%，惟安森美（ON）因毛利率转弱暴跌逾 15%。Palantir 公布财报前已上涨 4%，盘后公布优异业绩后再度上涨逾 4%。反观必需消费因避险情绪降温而较为疲弱；能源在 OPEC+扩大供给、油价走跌导致油气股走弱而表现居末。

 

Quick view of financial report

Palantir's revenue exceeded US$1 billion for the first time, with strong growth momentum in AI and government contracts

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) exceeded the US$1 billion mark for the first time in the second quarter of 2025, with an annual growth rate of 48%, and raised its full-year financial forecast again. The explosion in AI demand, the U.S. government's increased defense and data spending, and the Trump administration's promotion of streamlined administrative spending policies have jointly boosted the company's growth. Palantir also successfully signed a potential contract worth up to US$10 billion for the U.S. Army, making its market value surpass Salesforce, IBM and Cisco and among the top ten technology companies in the United States.

Palantir's strong growth reflects the high dependence of governments and enterprises on AI-driven analysis platforms. If we continue to expand the layout of commercial customers and defense technology in the future, it is expected to challenge higher growth goals. However, high valuations also pose risks to investors, and future performance needs to continue to verify market confidence.

• Revenue and profits hit record highs
  第2季营收达10亿美元，优于市场预期的9.4亿美元；净利达3.27亿美元，年增144%。每股盈余为13美分（经调整为16美分），大幅优于去年同期。

• Strong U.S. government business
  美国政府业务营收年增53%，达4.26亿美元，占整体营收逾四成；受益于川普推动的国安强化与国防技术升级潮。

• Full year financial forecast is raised again
  Palantir 将2025年营收预期上调至41.42亿至41.50亿美元，远高于原先预测的38.9亿至39亿美元。第3季预期营收为10.83亿至10.87亿美元，持续优于市场预期。

• AI and business needs grow in sync
  美国商业业务营收年增近一倍至3.06亿美元；CEO指出未来目标为营收成长10倍，同时精简人力至3,600人，显示AI驱动下的高效营运策略。

• The jump in market value and valuation pressure coexist
  股价年内已翻倍，市值突破3,790亿美元，本益比达276倍，为美股前20大中仅次于特斯拉 (TSLA)。高估值反映市场对AI潜力高度预期，也伴随投资风险。

 

On Mei warns of weak demand in the auto market, its share price plummets more than 13% for the worst performance of the S&P 500

U.S. chip maker ON (ON) reported second-quarter earnings in line with expectations, but its share price fell more than 15% on Monday as its CEO warned customers to be "cautious" and automotive market demand was uncertain, making it the weakest stock in the S&P 500 on the day. Although management gave a relatively positive third-quarter financial forecast, the market is still worried that its decline in revenue and sluggish capacity utilization will affect future gross profit performance.

ON Semiconductor's share price has fallen more than 20% so far this year, indicating that the market still has high doubts about the recovery of its core automotive business.

• Financial results are in line with expectations but difficult to boost confidence
  安森美第二季每股盈余为0.53美元，营收达14.7亿美元，虽年减15%，但略优于预期。不过，市场反应冷淡，股价单日下挫逾13%，反映投资人对成长动能减弱的担忧。

• Weak auto market is the main reason
  汽车业务营收环比下滑4%至7.33亿美元，CEO指出欧美市场皆疲弱，且「终端需求高度不确定」，客户倾向延后下单，压抑整体订单能见度。

• Third quarter outlook slightly better than expected
  公司预估第三季每股盈余介于0.54至0.64美元，营收范围为14.65亿至15.65亿美元，双双略高于市场预期中位数，但毛利率预测持平，使市场信心未明显提振。

• Limited capacity utilization and gross profit improvements
  第二季产能利用率维持在68%，与首季持平。CFO表示，要实现2027年53%毛利率目标，仍需依赖更高的产能使用率，目前对未来提升仍采取「审慎」态度。

• Stock prices fell sharply during the year, and investors continued to wait and see
  包含本次下跌，安森美股价今年已累跌超过20%，过去12个月也下滑16%，反映市场对汽车与工业需求回升的信心不足。

 

Hims & Hers 'revenue fell short of expectations and stock price fell sharply, while compliance controversy over GLP-1 business continues to simmer

U.S. telemedicine platform Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) announced its second-quarter 2025 financial report. Although revenue increased by 73% year-on-year to US$545 million, it was still below market expectations of US$552 million, causing its stock price to fall more than 10% after hours. Although the company delivered better-than-expected earnings and EBITDA performance, the market still has doubts about the legal risks of its GLP-1 weight-loss drug sales model, especially the previous collapse of cooperation with Novo Nordisk has severely damaged market confidence.

Although the company expects third-quarter revenue to be between US$570 million and US$590 million, its future development is still limited by the U.S. FDA and pharmaceutical companies 'compliance regulations on the use of compound drugs. Coupled with the fact that operating growth momentum may slow down, investors remain conservative about the prospects.

• Revenue fell short of expectations
  第2季营收为5.45亿美元，低于市场预估的5.52亿美元，导致盘后股价下跌约13%；每股盈余则为17美分，优于市场预期的15美分。

• GLP-1 business compliance storm
  公司持续销售价格较低的GLP-1复方药物，引发FDA与原厂药厂争议；与Novo Nordisk合作因违法「大量贩售」条款而中止，使市场对其业务模式稳定性存疑。

• EBITDA performed well but outlook was weak
  第2季调整后EBITDA为8,200万美元，优于市场预期的7,300万美元；但第3季预估为6,000万至7,000万美元，低于分析师预估的7,710万美元。

• Rapid growth but slowing down base effect
  营收虽年增73%，但相较前季放缓，市场担忧公司成长高峰可能已过，未来需靠差异化产品与合法合规模式维持成长。

• The market remains highly concerned about regulatory risks
  在FDA宣布GLP-1原药供应已恢复正常后，复方药需求合理性大减；若监管持续收紧，可能进一步冲击其核心业务模式与营收来源。

 

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general manager Daryl

U.S. employment data is in a crisis of confidence, and experts worry that deteriorating statistical quality may affect Fed decision-making

Official U.S. employment data is facing a crisis of confidence. The sharp downward revision of non-farm payrolls data for two consecutive months has raised doubts about the quality of statistics and also became the trigger for President Trump to fire the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Experts worry that the reduction in manpower and budgets of statistical agencies is weakening the United States 'long-standing high-standard economic data system, thereby interfering with the decision-making basis of the Federal Reserve Board and companies.

The error in employment data continues to widen, coupled with political forces questioning the authenticity of the data, further weakening market confidence and the credibility of government agencies. Although the Trump administration advocates reforming statistical agencies, it has actually been criticized for politicizing the professional statistical system, fearing long-term damage to decision-making transparency. Experts unanimously called for the immediate rebuilding of the resources and independence of statistical departments to maintain the foundation of policy judgment and democratic mechanisms.

• Statistical quality has deteriorated significantly
  路透调查指出，89%经济学者对美国经济数据品质表达忧虑，尤其是近期非农就业数据5月与6月合计下修达258,000人，创非疫情时期最大修正幅度，恐影响政策判断。

• Statistical manpower and budgets have been cut
  劳工统计局近年员工人数减少至少15%，导致多达350项生产者物价指数(PPI)细项将自8月起停刊，反映资源短缺对数据完整性构成实质冲击。

• Trump questions data and fires director
  川普将疲弱的7月就业报告称为「被操控」，并以此为由解雇劳工统计局局长 Erika McEntarfer，引发外界担忧政府干预统计独立性，重演对选举舞弊的怀疑论调。

• Economic slowdown risks increase
  7月非农新增仅73,000人，若扣除医疗与社福部门几乎为负成长。加上前两月大幅下修，市场普遍认为美国经济增速将跌至1%，衰退风险升高。

• Federal Reserve Committee's decisions may be disrupted
  将近三分之二专家担心统计数据失真会影响联准会政策判断。目前市场预期9月降息机率升至近90%，但数据不确定性可能使决策更为困难。

 

U.S. imposes a 39% tariff on Switzerland to shock the watch industry, Swatch responds urgently and urges the government to negotiate

U.S. President Trump announced a high 39% tariff on most Swiss goods, shocking the Swiss watch industry and the overall export industry. Nick Hayek, chief executive of Swatch Group, said that the company had prepared stocks in advance and increased prices, but could not withstand the impact in the long term, and called on the Swiss government to negotiate quickly with the United States. The Swiss government also expressed its willingness to propose "more attractive" trade terms to avoid major economic losses.

This tariff action not only affects the Swiss economy, but also once again reflects the high uncertainty of Trump's trade policy. Companies can only respond in the short term and cannot avoid risks in the long term. Industry and analysts generally believe that if tariffs are maintained for a long time, they will hit sales of mid-level and entry-level watches and may trigger a Swiss economic recession and pressure from the central bank to cut interest rates.

• Swatch stocks in advance and responds to price increases
  Swatch在川普首次释出关税讯号后已提早运送大量货品至美国，并自4月起调涨价格5%；目前美国仓储与门市存货可撑3至6个月，但长期恐难持续。

• Swiss watch industry hit hardest
  瑞士对美钟表出口占总出口16.8%、约达54.4亿瑞士法郎，为瑞士第三大出口产业。分析师指出，高阶品牌如Omega可转嫁成本，但中低阶品牌恐遭淘汰。

• The Swiss government opens negotiations and will not retaliate
  瑞士政府宣布不考虑立即报复措施，并愿就美方关切提出「更具吸引力」的谈判条件。目标是维持与美国主要竞争对手（如欧盟、日本）相同的15%关税水平。

• Tariffs have a serious impact on the economy
  若39%关税持续，将波及瑞士近六成对美出口，经济学家估计GDP恐下滑0.3%至0.6%，若药品类也纳入，跌幅可达1%以上。

• Companies call on president to negotiate in person
  Swatch与多位业界代表要求总统Karin Keller-Sutter亲赴华府谈判，强调「Swiss Made」标签对瑞士出口的核心价值无法妥协。

 

Federal Reserve Daly hints that the time is approaching to cut interest rates, and does not rule out the possibility of more than two interest rates

The U.S. job market continues to weaken, coupled with the absence of tariff-driven pressure on inflation, Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that monetary policy may be "increasingly out of place" and the Federal Reserve needs to prepare for further interest rate cuts. Although she still supports observing more economic data, she emphasized that every future meeting will be an "active meeting" to discuss policy adjustments, and hinted that if the labor market deteriorates further, the number of interest rate cuts throughout the year may exceed the current forecast of two.

Daly's remarks showed that the Fed has become more open to policy shifts. Especially in the recent employment report showing a sharp drop in new job openings and a significant revision of past data, market expectations for starting interest rate cuts in September or before the end of the year are heating up rapidly.

• The job market has weakened significantly
  Daly指出近期多项劳动力指标显示市场显著转弱，虽失业率仅小幅上升至4.2%，但新增就业数三个月合计仅新增约33,000人，结构性疲软迹象明显。

• The stance on monetary policy has become dovish
  她表示「无法永远等待」才降息，7月按兵不动是合理决定，但未来若就业再恶化、通膨未反弹，应准备好「不只两次」降息。

• No tariff spillover effect on inflation
  虽美国近期对多国实施高关税，Daly认为目前尚未观察到通膨有因关税扩散至广泛物价的迹象，若等到确认为时已晚。

• Policies are no longer symmetrical to economic conditions
  Daly指出，当前政策需在「压抑通膨」与「维持可持续就业」间权衡，并直言「政策越来越不对称」，暗示现行利率水准或已偏高。

• The market expects the probability of interest rate cuts to rise
  随Daly立场偏向宽松，市场目前预期9月会议降息机率迅速升温，联准会政策风向将受未来就业与通膨数据高度牵动。

 

stocks

Tesla brand loyalty plummets, Musk's support for Trump triggers a wave of consumer loss

According to S&P Global Mobility's vehicle registration data analysis, Tesla's (TSLA) brand loyalty in the United States has dropped sharply from its peak (73%) in June 2024, and once fell below 50% in March 2025, setting a record low. Analysis pointed out that after CEO Elon Musk publicly supported Trump in July 2024, it triggered a large number of environmentally friendly and liberal consumers to switch to other brands, becoming the main trigger. Even with a slight recent rebound, Tesla is no longer the most loyal brand in the automotive industry and has lost the advantage of attracting new users from other brands.

In addition to the influence of political stance on the brand image, multiple challenges such as aging product lines, increased competition and a rebound in the European market have also caused its market share to decline. The industry believes that if Tesla fails to rebuild its neutral brand image and launch new production vehicles, it will face a more severe risk of shrinking market share.

• Brand loyalty falls out of the lead
  特斯拉2024年6月品牌忠诚度高达73%，2025年3月降至49.9%，低于产业平均；5月回升至57.4%，与Toyota相当，但落后Chevrolet与Ford。

• Political stance hits core customers hard
  Musk支持川普及主导精简政府机构计划，叠加裁员与政治争议，使大量民主派与环保导向用户转投他牌，如Rivian、Polestar、Porsche等。

• New cars are not attractive enough
  自2020年以来仅推出Cybertruck，且市场反应冷淡。旧款Model Y因工厂改装造成产能中断，未能缓解销售压力。

• Market loss is unprecedented
  过去每流失1户就能吸引5户新客，如今仅能吸引不到2户，为S&P追踪以来最低；已不再为行业中最具吸引力品牌。

• Competition and brand repair pressures increase
  中国与传统车厂EV竞品快速崛起，分析师认为Musk涉政治「时机极差」，未来需靠自驾授权、Robotaxi等高利润业务弥补整车销售下滑。

 

Broadcom launches Jericho4 chip to enhance AI data center's high-frequency bandwidth and long-range transmission capabilities

AVGO has announced the launch of the latest generation of Jericho4 network switch chips, designed to connect data centers more than 60 miles apart to support AI computation-intensive requirements. This chip uses TSMC's (2330.TW) 3-nanometer process, which not only greatly improves data transmission efficiency, but also integrates high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and encryption functions to enhance performance and security. As the scale of AI training expands and GPU layouts become more decentralized, Jericho4 will become an important infrastructure solution for cloud service providers such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN).

This product demonstrates Broadcom's continued leading position in the network chip market in the AI era. It also reflects the rapidly rising demand for high-performance and high-security networks for AI applications, which will have a profound impact on the data center architecture.

• Support ultra-remote AI data centers
  Jericho4可连接相距超过96公里的资料中心，支援AI训练所需大规模GPU串接与高频宽资料传输，解决远距布局下的延迟与拥塞问题。

• Introduce high-bandwidth memory to deal with congestion
  晶片内建HBM，能在网路壅塞时暂存大量资料，类似辉达 (NVDA) 与超微 (AMD) AI加速卡的记忆体架构，确保资料不中断传输。

• Single system deploys 4,500 chips
  博通表示Jericho4支援大规模布建，单一系统可整合多达4,500颗晶片，符合云端与超大型资料中心的设计需求。

• Data encryption enhances cloud security
  Jericho4提升跨资料中心的传输安全性，内建加密机制，防范资料在进出资料中心途中遭窃或被拦截。

• Adopt TSMC 3 nanometer process
  晶片使用台积电先进3奈米技术，兼具性能与功耗表现，有助于在高运算需求下维持能源效率。