Market analysis

昨日盘前美国公布 7 月 CPI 数据，核心商品通膨延续关税影响，但涨幅已经趋缓，如家饰用品从 0.98% 降至 0.70%，休闲娱乐商品自 0.78% 下滑至 0.43%，整体通膨受关税影响不大，9 月降息机率从公布数据前 86% 窜升至 95%，乐观情绪带动美股主要指数联袂收红，且涨幅全数超过 1%，费半及罗素 2000 甚至接近 3%，标普及那指再创历史新高。类股方面，CPI 显示机票价格月增 4%，扭转连五个月下跌的颓势，反映旅游需求回升及航空公司调整供给有成，带动航空股劲扬，其中联合航空（UAL）狂飙逾 10%、达美航空（DAL）涨超 9%。资讯科技类股表现不俗，英特尔（INTC）、德仪（TXN）皆大涨超过 5%，高通（QCOM）及美光（MU）同样上涨逾 3%；通讯服务则在 Meta（META）上攻超过 3% 带动下表现居冠。相较之下，必需型消费及公用事业等防御类股表现落后。 

Quick view of financial report

CoreWeave's revenue exceeded expectations and hit a new high, AI demand exploded but losses widened, dragging down stock price

CoreWeave (CRWV.O) revenue reached US$1.21 billion in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of US$1.08 billion, mainly driven by AI inference demand and the growth of large-scale language model applications. However, operating costs increased significantly to US$1.19 billion, expanding the net loss to US$290.5 million, higher than the forecast of US$190.6 million, causing after-hours shares to fall 10%. The company holds US$301 billion in revenue pending orders, showing long-term demand visibility, but is highly dependent on a few large customers such as OpenAI, creating concentrated risks. CoreWeave raised its full-year revenue forecast to US$5.15 billion to US$5.35 billion, and emphasized that its cooperation with NVDA and acquisition of Core Scientific (CORZ.O) will ensure 1.3 GW of power resources and meet the challenges of AI infrastructure expansion.

• Updated revenue and forecast
  第二季营收12.1亿美元超预期，公司将全年营收预测从49亿至51亿美元上调至51.5亿至53.5亿美元。

• Costs and losses expand
  营运费用年增近4倍至11.9亿美元，净亏损2.905亿美元，高于市场预估，反映快速扩张带来的成本压力。

• Order and demand visibility
  营收待履约订单由3月底的2,590亿美元增至3,010亿美元，显示需求将延续至2025年以后。

• Demand for AI inference and computing power surges
  AI模型使用链式推理技术大幅提升准确度，但也使运算需求倍增，推动CoreWeave扩建33座AI资料中心。

• Mergers and acquisitions and resource protection
  并购Core Scientific将取得1.3 GW电力资源，但交易遭最大股东Two Seas Capital反对，存在不确定性。

 

Circle's first financial report after listing, revenue exceeded expectations, and USDC circulation increased by 90% annually to promote growth

Circle (CRCL) announced its first quarterly earnings report after listing. Second-quarter revenue reached US$658 million, exceeding market expectations of US$644.7 million, mainly driven by a 90% year-on-year increase in USDC stablecoin liquidity and an increase in subscription and service revenue. Although its share price has risen more than five-fold compared to its IPO price, the company still reported a net loss of US$482 million, mainly due to IPO-related non-cash expenses and higher valuations of convertible bonds. Circle plans to launch Arc, a public chain specifically designed for stablecoin transactions, this fall to consolidate its position in digital payment infrastructure.

• Revenue and growth momentum
  第二季营收6.58亿美元，年增53%，受益于USDC储备资产利息收入增加，以及订阅与服务收入成长。

• USDC circulation and application expansion
  USDC流通量年增90%，并广泛用于跨境交易与个人及企业汇款，预期未来将以年复合成长率40%持续增长。

• IPO and loss factors
  净亏损4.82亿美元，主要源自IPO后员工股权解锁成本及可转债估值上升的会计影响。

• Technical layout Arc public chain
  计划推出Arc公有链，专为稳定币交易优化，强化数位支付基础设施与市场竞争力。

• Market Position and Strategy
  目标成为美国稳定币市场的核心支柱，但暂不考虑大型并购，专注稳健扩张与信任建立。

 

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

U.S. CPI growth slowed in July, but core inflation was the largest in six months, raising doubts about data quality

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, in line with expectations, with an annual increase of 2.7%; core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase since January this year, with an annual increase of 3.1%. The increase in core inflation was mainly driven by air fares, medical and dental services, etc., and the prices of tariff-sensitive goods such as household goods and footwear also rose significantly. Although a 2.2% drop in gasoline prices has depressed overall inflation, the cooling trend in service prices has stalled, raising uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. At the same time, due to budget cuts and staff turnover from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), CPI data collection in some regions has stopped, and the quality and credibility of the data have attracted much attention.

• Overall and core inflation trends
  CPI月增0.2%、年增2.7%，核心CPI月增0.3%、年增3.1%，显示服务价格上行压力。

• Main sources of price increases
  航空票价反弹4.0%，牙科服务创纪录上涨2.6%，医疗成本月增0.7%，关税推动家居用品涨0.7%、鞋类涨1.4%。

• Energy and food impact
  汽油价跌2.2%拉低总体通膨，食品价格持平，蛋价降3.9%抵销牛奶与牛肉涨价。

• Policies and market reactions
  数据未明确支持9月降息，市场聚焦劳动市场与8月通膨表现；股市上涨、美元回落、美债长天期殖利率走升。

• Statistical data quality risks
  BLS因经费不足暂停部分CPI数据收集，采用推估法比例由10%升至32%，引发市场对通膨数据波动与真实性的疑虑。

 

US July employment data triggered the resignation of the BLS director, and the Fed regarded it as a reason to cut interest rates but remained cautious and waited

The U.S. July employment report showed weakening labor market momentum, prompting some Fed officials to believe that interest rates should be cut in time to prevent the economy from slowing further. The data also led President Trump to dismiss the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and appoint E.J. Antoni, chief economist of the Heritage Foundation, to take over, triggering market concerns about the independence and credibility of statistics. Although Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, appointed by Trump, advocated immediate interest rate cuts, most officials still wait and see and cross-verify BLS data through private data and administrative records to reduce decision-making risks. The market currently expects the probability of a rate cut in September to exceed 85%.

• Signs of slowing employment
  5月至7月就业增长持续走弱，Fed部分官员认为延迟降息可能恶化劳动市场并拖累经济。

• Policy differences and market expectations
  Bowman与Waller主张立即降息，多数官员保持观望，投资人押注9月及12月降息机率上升。

• Inflation Data Background
  7月CPI年增2.7%持平，核心CPI年增由2.9%升至3.1%，受服务业与关税敏感商品带动。

• Data credibility controversy
  BLS领导层更迭及统计流程受关注，市场担忧数据被政治化影响决策基础。

• Multivariate data verification
  Fed透过私营数据、失业救济申请、企业访谈及Beige Book等方式交叉检验经济真实状况。

 

industry

The US GENIUS Act opens an era of stablecoin supervision, with banks and companies actively deploying but challenges still remaining

U.S. President Trump signed the GENIUS Act on July 18, establishing a federal regulatory framework for dollar-linked stablecoins for the first time, attracting banks including Bank of America (BAC.N), Citigroup (C.N) and companies such as Walmart and Amazon to explore strategies to spontaneously or integrate existing stablecoins. The bill is expected to promote the popularization of stablecoins in retail payments and cross-border settlements, but experts pointed out that the implementation process needs to consider compliance costs, technology options, capital specifications and ecological cooperation models, and the detailed rules and regulations have yet to be supplemented and implemented by regulatory agencies within several years.

• Regulatory frameworks and market opportunities
  GENIUS法案明确稳定币发行的联邦规则与KYC/AML要求，为支付、跨境汇款及零售场景应用打开市场空间。

• Banking advantages and capital constraints
  银行具备成熟的合规与风控体系，但持有稳定币资产可能增加资本要求，需评估资产风险权重。

• Differences in technology options
  银行可能倾向采用具治理与控制力的私有链，部分业者则看好以太坊、Solana等公链的成熟用户基础与抗压测试经验。

• Enterprise strategies and application scenarios
  零售商可用稳定币促进用户消费黏著度，跨国企业则可用于内部跨境结算以降低成本与时间延迟。

• Implementation challenges and timetable
  法案虽已生效，但细则将由货币监理署与财政部等机构分阶段制定，全面实施可能需数年。

 

Perplexity AI proposes $34.5 billion all-cash acquisition of Chrome to challenge Google's search monopoly

AI startup Perplexity AI has proposed to Alphabet (GOOGL.O) a $34.5 billion all-cash unsolicited acquisition of Chrome, much higher than its own $14 billion valuation, aiming to seize the browser portal with more than 3 billion users and consolidate its position in the AI search competition. The move comes at a time when the U.S. Department of Justice antitrust case may require Google to spin off Chrome, but analysts believe Google is likely to refuse to sell and launch a lengthy lawsuit. Perplexity promises to keep Chromium open source, invest $3 billion over two years, and not change Chrome's default search engine.

• Acquisition motivation and strategy
  收购可让Perplexity的AI浏览器Comet结合Chrome庞大用户群，与OpenAI等竞争AI搜寻入口。

• Funding source and scale gap
  Perplexity迄今募资约10亿美元，称多家基金愿意全额融资，但未披露名称。

• Anti-monopoly background and legal resistance
  Google正上诉去年被裁定垄断搜寻市场的判决，法官裁决剥离方案可能延迟数年，并面临上诉至最高法院的可能。

• Market valuation and acquisition difficulty
  DuckDuckGo CEO估算Chrome价值至少500亿美元，显示Perplexity出价低于部分市场预期。

• Competition and industrial impact
  浏览器在AI搜寻时代再度成为关键流量入口，吸引OpenAI、Yahoo等潜在买家关注。

 

stocks

Trump said he was considering allowing NVDA to export downsized Blackwell chips to China

U.S. President Trump said he might allow NVDA to sell a downgraded version of the Blackwell system to China, with performance cuts of 30% to 50%, and plans to meet with CEO Huang Renxun to discuss. Blackwell is Fuida's most advanced AI chip. The United States will restrict the export of high-end chips such as A100 and H100 to China since 2022, and further expand the ban in 2023. Previously, Vitek and AMD agreed to pay 15% of sales revenue to China to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses. Analysts suggest that this move may cause China to rely on U.S. sub-high-end technology and delay local substitution. However, Huawei is accelerating the research and development of Ascend processors and is expected to launch a more competitive 910 version next year.

• Reduction plan and negotiation background
  川普称可接受「负向升级」的Blackwell，削减30%~50%性能，以达出口安全与商业利益平衡。

• Market and industry impact
  若获批，将为辉达在中国打开部分高价值市场，并延续中国对美国GPU的依赖。

• Existing export restrictions
  美方2022年禁止A100、H100出口，2023年扩大至更多辉达晶片，中企依靠库存支撑AI训练。

• Chinese enterprise substitution process
  华为Ascend系列尚未完全替代辉达GPU，910新版本或于明年具更强竞争力。

• Policy transaction details
  辉达与AMD已同意向美国政府缴交15%对华销售营收以换取出口许可，原提案为20%经黄仁勋协商下调。