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[Pre-market analysis of U.S. stocks] Rising tariffs suppress technological sentiment, U.S. futures index stabilizes and waits on inflation and Sino-US trends (2025.10.13)

After tariffs and export controls warmed up, the futures index stabilized, and technology stocks evaluated China's exposure and cost transmission; the market focused on inflation data, US dollar interest rates and Sino-US interactions, and observed the rotation of supply chains and stocks.

[U.S. stocks before the market] Rising tariffs suppress technological sentiment, U.S. futures index stabilizes and waits on inflation and Sino-US trends (2025.10.13)

Sentimental recovery after the tariff impact, U.S. stocks are focusing on policies and data. The market stabilized before Monday, Taiwan time, after technology stocks fell sharply last Friday. Investors are digesting Trump's announcement of imposing new 100% tariffs on China imports and export controls on key software, while paying attention to whether subsequent inflation data and Sino-US interactions will send a cooling signal. Selling pressure last Friday was concentrated on large technologies and semiconductors, but the futures index rebounded in electronic trading over the weekend, which was conducive to a neutral wait-and-see opening atmosphere.

The rebound in futures index drove risk appetite to warm up. The three major futures indexes in U.S. stocks rose before the market. The S & P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones futures rebounded moderately in electronic trading over the weekend, indicating that short-term selling pressure has eased. The trading side focuses on the pace of subsequent inflation and retail data release in the United States, as well as companies 'initial responses to tariff variables, as the key to measuring the willingness to take risks this week.

Policy uncertainty has increased and tariffs and export controls are the main axis. Trump announced that he will impose a new 100% tariff on China imports starting from November 1, and will implement export controls on any key software on the same day, citing Beijing's tightening of rare earth exports. The move triggered a re-pricing of assessment costs and supply risks in the technology and semiconductor supply chain. Trump sent a signal that "everything will be fine with China" in the early morning of Monday in Taiwan time. The market interpreted that there was still room for negotiation, but the short-term risk premium was difficult to dissipate quickly.

China's countermeasures and shipping costs are heating up, and supply chain elasticity is being tested. In response to the US approach, in addition to maintaining rare earth export restrictions, transportation authorities will charge new fees on U.S. ships calling at China ports starting from October 14, creating uncertainty for trans-Pacific routes and logistics costs. If tariffs are added to the upward freight rate, the elasticity of gross profit margins of retail and durable goods importers will become the focus of follow-up legislation.

The weakening of Asian stocks and the pressure on the China market. European stocks fell simultaneously last week. Asia-Pacific stock markets generally fell on Monday, Taiwan time. Among them, the decline in the China market was relatively deep, reflecting the valuation discount due to the recovery of policy risks. Pressure in Europe since last week has continued to regional indices, indicating that global risk assets have become more sensitive to trade tensions. The sentiment in U.S. stocks before the opening bell was stabilized due to the rebound in futures index, but the overall trend is still cautious.

China's exports were better than expected, and the resilience of external demand and tariff risks were sewed. China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year in September, which was better than market expectations and rebounded from an August low. Imports also exceeded expectations. The data highlights that there is still support for external demand, but a new round of uncertainties in tariffs and port charges may disrupt order visibility in the fourth quarter. Investors are concerned about the flexibility of order transfer and the progress of geographical dispersion in the multinational manufacturing and OEM system.

Assessing resilience after technology rights are rolled back, the AI theme remains the core narrative. Last Friday, the total market value of large technologies evaporated by more than US$770 billion, making it one of the deepest single-day recessions since April this year. Nvidia(NVDA), Apple(AAPL), Microsoft(MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon(AMZN), Meta Platforms(META) and Tesla(TSLA) have attracted increased attention. The pre-market observation points are the degree of exposure in China, the resilience of supply chain restructuring and management's description of cost transmission of the tariff scenario.

The semiconductor and automation chains are under test, and the growth of investment in robots and manufacturing has not changed. A Morgan Stanley report pointed out that China still has a leading position in the field of robots, and the demand for manufacturing upgrades may drive investment in production capacity in the next few years. However, export restrictions on rare earths and software, coupled with new tariffs, have made the short-term supply-cost curve steeper, and sub-industries such as chip equipment, industrial automation and power components need to assess alternative sources and inventory safety levels.

Macroscopic attention turned to inflation and Federal Reserve signals. This week, the market focused on the latest inflation-related data and talked with Federal Reserve officials to assess the impact of long-term interest rates and US dollar movements on the evaluation of growth stocks. If core price pressures do not deteriorate, discount rate pressures on technology and consumer stocks are expected to ease; conversely, the superposition of policy risks and interest rate variables will keep risk appetite restrained.

Geophysical risks have eased marginally but the impact has been limited. Regarding the situation in the Middle East, Hamas released the first batch of Israeli hostages, reflecting progress in ceasefire mediation and helping to suppress risk aversion in the short term. However, compared with the direct impact of trade and supply chain policies, geographical changes play a relatively minor role in pre-market pricing.

The dynamics of raw materials and foreign exchange markets affect the rotation of stocks. Investors are concerned about the profit leverage of oil prices and the US dollar index on energy, aviation and export-oriented companies. If the strength of the US dollar goes hand in hand with rising cost pressures, the profit elasticity of non-essential consumption, industry and transportation will face challenges; if crude oil falls, some pressures are expected to ease.

Before the market, individual stocks and trading focus returned to the index weights and supply chains. After Friday's sharp decline, early trading focused on whether buying covering and volume and energy in large technologies returned to normal, as well as the relative performance of stocks with a high proportion of China revenue in the semiconductor community. Shipping and logistics concepts may also be affected by new fee and tariff issues, resulting in increased transaction activity.

The opening framework with both risks and opportunities coexisting is mainly driven by policy titles in the short term. The current market has turned to data dependence under the uncertainty of tariffs and export controls. The stabilization of futures index shows that funds have not yet been withdrawn from risky assets. The subsequent trend still depends on inflation readings, the direction of the US dollar and US bond yields, and whether Sino-US interactions have released cooling signals have become the three key factors that affect the opening and intraday sentiment of the day.

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