Market analysis美国总统川普于7月23日亚洲时段宣布，已与日本达成初步贸易协议。在日本承诺将投资美国5,500亿美元，并开放汽车与农产品市场的条件下，美方将对日方征收15%汽车关税。消息激励市场情绪，美股期货亚洲盘上扬，开盘亦跳空上涨。盘中受投资人观望特斯拉（TSLA）与 Alphabet（GOOGL）财报影响，以及欧盟警告若无协议将对美国商品祭出报复性关税，使股市一度回落。但据外交官透露，美欧正加速谈判，聚焦汽车与钢铝等品项，关税有望落在15%。随著协议希望升温，VIX恐慌指数大跌近7%，风险偏好回温，美股盘中稳步走高，标普500再创新高，除费半外其余指数全数收红。类股方面，医疗保健在个股财报表现优异的带动下，涨幅居冠；贸易协议预期促进制造与运输业景气，UPS（UPS）、FedEx（FDX）等运输股全面走高，重机与卡车制造商如Caterpillar（CAT）、Deere（DE）亦同步受惠。国防类股如 RTX（RTX）、通用动力（GD）、GE Aerospace（GE）、Palantir（PLTR）在 Northrop Grumman (NOC) 强劲财报带动下，皆获资金青睐。在风险偏好回升背景下，公用事业与必需消费等防御型板块相对疲弱。盘后时段 Alphabet 公布 25Q2 财报优于预期，盘后上涨 1.74%，并将 2025 全年资本支出自 750 亿美元上修至 850 亿美元（较 2024 年 525 亿美元年增 62%），引发资金重回AI概念股。盘后辉达（NVDA）、超微（AMD）、博通（AVGO）与台积电（TSM）同步上扬。反观特斯拉因财报不及预期，盘后下跌 4.4%。

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Alphabet significantly raises capital expenditures to US$85 billion to accelerate cloud and AI infrastructure deployment

Alphabet (GOOGL) announced that it will significantly increase its 2025 capital expenditure forecast to US$85 billion, mainly due to surge in demand for cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure. Although the market was surprised by the increase in expenses, the second-quarter results were generally better than expectations, including revenue and earnings per share being higher than market valuations. The cloud business has become the main growth driver, with an annual growth rate of 32%, and has been included as a supplier by OpenAI. CEO Pichai emphasized that AI demand will drive continued expansion of infrastructure, and the company's capital expenditures will further increase in 2026.

• 云端业务强劲增长
  Google Cloud第二季营收达136.2亿美元，年增32%，远高于分析师预期的131.1亿美元；客户数较前一季成长28%，并新增OpenAI为云端客户，成为突破性合作。

• 资本支出上调至历史新高
  Alphabet将2025年资本支出预估从原本的750亿美元上调至850亿美元，远高于市场先前预期的588.4亿美元，主要用于扩充伺服器与资料中心基础建设，以满足AI与云端需求。

• 广告与搜寻业务稳健成长
  第二季搜寻营收达541.9亿美元，广告总营收为713.4亿美元，年增10.4%，显示核心业务在生成式AI竞争中仍具韧性；YouTube广告营收也达98亿美元，高于预期。

• AI布局与人才招募扩张
  Google Gemini应用已达4.5亿月活用户，AI搜寻产品AI Overviews月活更超过20亿人；公司亦以24亿美元收购AI新创Windsurf并整合其技术与人才。

• 营运成本与法律支出增加
  第二季营运费用年增20%至261亿美元，主因包含14亿美元的和解支出（与德州资料隐私案相关）；此成本增加将对短期利润构成压力。

Tesla's revenue fell for two consecutive quarters, Musk warned that the next few quarters could be difficult, betting on self-driving and robot-led rebound

Tesla (TSLA)'s second-quarter revenue fell 12% year-on-year to US$22.5 billion, falling for two consecutive quarters and falling below market expectations. Affected by unfavorable factors such as the elimination of federal tax credits in the United States, new tariffs and a decline in the number of vehicles delivered, both profits and net profits declined. Chief Executive Elon Musk warned that the company could face several "difficult periods" before self-driving technology and robot-related services generate real revenue. The market is highly concerned about Tesla's reliance on immature technology to support long-term growth.

• 营收与获利不如预期
  第二季营收为225亿美元，低于预期的227.4亿美元；调整后每股盈余为0.40美元，低于预期的0.43美元；汽车营收年减16%，至167亿美元，车用碳权收入年减近51%，跌至4.39亿美元。

• 销售下滑与政治风险夹击
  全球交车量年减14%至38.4万辆；美国将于9月结束每辆7,500美元的EV税收抵免，加上与川普政府密切关联与极右言论，引发欧洲与美国市场反感，抑制销量与品牌形象。

• 自驾与Robotaxi为长期核心战略
  Musk称自驾软体、Robotaxi与Optimus人形机器人将是特斯拉未来关键收入来源，预期2025年下半年开始贡献财务。公司已在德州奥斯汀展开Robotaxi小规模测试，但仍落后Alphabet旗下的Waymo。

• 平价车型量产延后
  特斯拉表示已于6月底开始生产平价车型初始版本，量产将延至2025年下半年，进度落后原预期。此车预计为Model Y简化版本，但未公布定价或产量细节。

• 超级充电业务与资产增长
  超级充电业务毛利年增17%，充电站总数达7,377座，年增18%；数位资产价值上升至12.4亿美元，较去年同期翻倍。此为非核心但成长中的利润来源。

ServiceNow's second-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, AI demand drove up, full-year revenue outlook was raised

ServiceNow (NOW) announced its eye-catching second-quarter results, with both revenue and profit better than expected, and raised its full-year subscription revenue outlook for 2024, stimulating its stock price to rise by 7% after hours. Benefiting from the introduction of a generative AI refactoring process by enterprises, the company's subscription revenue reached US$31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%, highlighting the key position of its enterprise cloud solutions in the AI wave. Despite the potential uncertainty caused by changes in the U.S. government budget, the company remains optimistic and continues to expand into the public sector and large corporate customers.

• 财报大幅优于预期
  第二季营收达32.2亿美元，优于市场预估的31.2亿美元；调整后每股盈余为4.09美元，远超过预期的3.57美元；净利年增47%至3.85亿美元。

• 订阅收入成长动能强劲
  订阅营收为31.1亿美元，高于预期的30.3亿美元；全年订阅收入展望上调至1,277.5亿至1,279.5亿美元区间，反映企业加速导入AI解决方案。

• AI驱动企业流程重构
  执行长Bill McDermott表示，生成式AI正驱动「每个产业的每一项业务流程」重构，成为公司主要成长来源，带动客户升级ServiceNow平台的意愿。

• 公部门业务面临挑战
  公司指出，美国联邦政府预算调整恐对第三季产生2个百分点的季节性影响，虽然联邦业务不如去年稳定，但财务长表示目前已纳入展望中。

• 合约与续约指标持续成长
  当前剩余履约义务（cRPO）年增近25%至109.2亿美元，显示客户黏著度与续约能见度提升，下一季订阅收入预估也超市场预期。

IBM's second-quarter revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, but its software business was slightly weaker and its share price fell after hours

IBM announced that its second-quarter earnings performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue increasing by nearly 8% year-on-year and earnings per share reaching US$2.80. However, software revenue was slightly lower than expected. Coupled with corporate spending shifting to hardware and deferral of project contracts, the market responded conservatively, and its share price fell by 6% after hours. Despite geopolitical and U.S. government spending uncertainties, IBM maintains a full-year revenue growth target of at least 5% and a free cash flow outlook of US$13.5 billion, and actively promotes AI and M & A growth strategies.

• 营收与获利超预期
  第二季营收为169.8亿美元，优于市场预估的165.9亿美元；调整后每股盈余2.80美元，同样高于预期的2.64美元；净利达21.9亿美元，年增近20%。

• 软体收入略低于预期
  软体营收为73.9亿美元，略低于市场预期的74.3亿美元，主要因部分客户支出优先转向硬体；不过混合云收入（含Red Hat）成长16%，AI业务累计合约金额已达75亿美元。

• 基础设施与咨询表现强劲
  基础设施业务收入年增14%至41.4亿美元，显著高于预期；咨询业务年增近3%至53.1亿美元，同样优于市场估算，显示大型企业仍在进行IT升级与数位转型。

• 地缘政治与政府预算影响短期动能
  执行长指出，部分客户因地缘风险放缓决策，美国联邦支出上半年也略显保守，但公司预期不会对全年造成长期阻力。

• 并购与AI为未来成长双引擎
  IBM公布并购AI与数据顾问公司Hakkoda，并推出新一代z17主机；管理层表示，并购环境逐渐回归理性，有助推进战略整合，加速AI布局与业务扩张。

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The United States and Europe plan to reach a trade agreement to avoid 30% tariffs, and the United States may set a 15% benchmark tax rate and exempt specific industries

The United States and the European Union are close to reaching a trade agreement that could set benchmark tariffs of 15% and provide exemptions for industries such as aviation, agriculture and medicine to avoid the United States imposing punitive tariffs of up to 30% on EU goods starting August 1. The agreement framework will be similar to the latest trade arrangement reached between the United States and Japan. Although the agreement has not yet been finalized, EU member states are ready to vote on 93 billion euros of counter-imposed tariffs to show a tough stance. The negotiation could be another major trade breakthrough during President Trump's tenure.

• 协议草案内容曝光
  据欧洲外交官透露，美欧贸易协议可能设15%基准关税，低于川普原提议的30%；特定产业如飞机、木材、农产品与部分药品有望获得关税豁免，但50%钢铁关税仍维持不变。

• 欧盟预备反制措施
  若协议未能如期达成，欧盟成员国预计对美国商品加征930亿欧元关税，并扩大使用「反胁迫工具」；多数成员国支持采取行动防止经济损失。

• 美日协议成为参考模型
  美国日前与日本达成协议，包含日本投资与贷款总值5.5亿美元，承诺购买100架波音飞机与增加美农产品采购，汽车关税由27.5%降至15%，引发欧洲寻求类似待遇。

• 美国汽车业反弹声浪
  美国车厂对美日协议不满，认为对日本低美国含量车征税较低，不利北美高美国含量车型，损害本土汽车产业与劳工利益。

• 投资市场反应两极
  亚洲与欧洲股市因贸易乐观情绪上扬，但美股受企业财报疲弱与政策混乱影响涨幅有限；企业普遍反映关税与供应链混乱正压抑利润与信心。

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SK Hynix benefits from AI boom to record high, HBM memory dominance drives revenue and profits

South Korea's SK Hynix benefited from strong demand for high-frequency and bandwidth memory (HBM) in the second quarter, setting record highs in revenue and operating profits. Revenue increased by 35% year-on-year and operating profit increased by nearly 69% year-on-year, indicating that its DRAM products for AI servers have grown strongly and firmly maintain a leading position in global HBM. The company expects HBM sales to double throughout the year and expand capital expenditures in 2025 to support growth demand in 2026 and further consolidate its dominant position in the AI memory market.

• 营收与获利创新高
  第二季营收达22.23兆韩元（约161.7亿美元），高于预期的20.56兆韩元；营业利益为9.21兆韩元，同样优于市场预期；季增24%，反映需求与价格持续走强。

• HBM贡献营收主力
  高频宽记忆体（HBM）为AI晶片关键组件，第二季占公司营收比重达77%；SK海力士为辉达 (NVDA) 等AI巨头主要供应商，预期2025年HBM销售将较去年翻倍。

• 积极扩大资本支出
  公司宣布将于2025年扩大资本支出，为2026年HBM需求做准备，显示其长期扩产计划与技术升级决心。

• 稳居全球记忆体龙头
  根据Counterpoint Research资料，SK海力士于第一季已超越三星电子成为全球DRAM龙头，第二季与三星在DRAM与NAND总营收并驾齐驱。

• 短期内领先地位难以撼动
  虽三星与美光 (MU) 加速追赶HBM领域，但分析师普遍认为SK海力士在技术与市占上具先发优势，预期其领先地位将延续至2026年。