Fei Ban bucked the trend and led the gains, driving risk appetite, but the market trend was weak

The four major intraday U.S. stocks were divided. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was temporarily reported at 6,673.89, up about 1.58%, providing key support for overall risk sentiment; However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was temporarily reported at 46,138.3, down about 0.29%, the S & P 500 Index was temporarily reported at 6,630.63, down about 0.21%, and the Nasdaq Index was temporarily reported at 22,507.32, down slightly by 0.06%, indicating that funds are mainly structural rotations and the breadth has not yet been fully spread.

Funds transferred into chips and green energy weak centralized insurance and individual clouds

The focus on semiconductors and renewable energy is focused on, with Bunge Global(Bunge, BG) up by more than 10%, First Solar(FSLR) up by about 6%, and Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) up by more than 6%, becoming a source of long-term firepower. In contrast, Progressive(PGR) fell by about 7%, Axon Enterprise(Axon, AXON) fell back by more than 8%, F5(F5, FFIV) was under pressure after reporting that it had been hacked by national hackers, and cloud and information security communities showed differences.

Ultramicro leads AI chain Oracle orders and equipment vendor outlook push up buying sentiment

Ultramicro continued its momentum after announcing chip supply cooperation with Oracle(Oracle, ORCL) the day before, and its intraday surge drove the overall AI-related chain to strengthen. On the equipment side, ASML(ASML) released a strong signal of AI-driven demand, strengthening the market's confidence in the demand for advanced processes and high-frequency and wide-bandwidth memory expansion. Funds returned to the upper, middle and lower reaches of semiconductors, and the cost index became a relatively strong main axis.

Bank earnings were better than expected, financial stocks became the second support on the market

The earnings season started solidly, with Bank of America(BAC) reporting a profit increase of more than 20% year-on-year, with strong investment banking activity driving revenue performance;Morgan Stanley(MS) profit increase of more than 40% year-on-year, which management described as a stand-out season. The strength of financial equity stocks has provided downward support for Dow Jones and S & P, but the divergence of authorized equity technologies and individual negative positions have dragged down the index and failed to strengthen simultaneously.

Federal Reserve releases employment risk signal, interest rate cuts are expected to rise, favorable valuation

The latest remarks by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve pointed out that the downside risks to employment are rising, and the market continues to revise upward the probability of interest rate cuts in the future, pushing the long-term discount rate assumption downward, which is conducive to the relative performance of growth and highly valued assets. Investors pay attention to the upcoming Beige Book's account of economic momentum, inflation and employment to judge the rhythm of the currency path and the continuity of stock rotation.

Rising friction between the United States and China and government shutdown variables risk appetite in the news

In terms of external variables, trade tensions between the United States and China continue. Trump stated that he would consider imposing an embargo on China's edible oil in response to China's reduction in purchases of American soybeans. Previously, China imposed new sanctions on several U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump still plans to meet with China leaders to leave room for imagination for diplomatic détente. At the same time, the U.S. government's preparations for an extension of the shutdown have intensified policy uncertainty, and market risk appetite has been repeatedly influenced by the news.

Equity stocks diverge and the impact of the seven major technologies on the index becomes neutral

Large technology stocks were mixed, with Nvidia(NVDA) down about 1%, Amazon(AMZN) retreating more than 1%, and Microsoft(MSFT) down slightly; in contrast, Alphabet(Google parent company, GOOGL) and Meta Platforms(Facebook parent company, META) were stronger, Apple(Apple, AAPL) rose slightly, and Tesla(Tesla, TSLA) was almost flat. The dispersion of weights limits the upward slope of the Nasdaq and S & P 500, and also highlights the temporary connection of the main axis of the disk by semiconductors.

Commodities and foreign exchange market signals are neutral and biased to support risky assets

Gold prices continue to reach high levels, reflecting the need for safe haven from policy easing and geopolitical risks; lower oil prices will help ease inflationary pressures and alleviate market concerns about interest rates. The US dollar weakened against the euro, pound and yen, and risky assets benefited relatively; the prices of major crypto assets were strong, and the market's willingness to bear risks was still stable.

Agricultural themes drive the strengthening of the Bunji, and trade uncertainty turns into short-term catalysis

Policy noise related to soybeans and edible oils has intensified, and Bunge Global(Bunge, BG) has benefited from potential trade orders and price fluctuations to become one of the best performing stocks in the S & P 500. This theme also echoes the phased rotation of the energy and agricultural chains, but the policy direction is still uncertain and short-term fluctuations may increase.

Individual negative suppression insurances are clearly differentiated within cloud groups

Progressive(PGR) fell sharply due to rising comprehensive cost ratios, and the market reassessed the insurance industry's claims and premium outlook;F5(FFIV) reported the security incident, indicating that the cloud and security community are still affected by company-level events. Abbott Laboratories(ABT) revised the upper margin of the annual profit range to cope with the impact of tariffs, and the sentiment of the medical device community has become more conservative.

Volume observations show that the volume of hot trading index of subject stocks has not expanded simultaneously

Intraday observations showed that stocks such as Supermicro and First Solar showed signs of amplification higher than their recent average volume, and their willingness to buy and chase prices increased; however, the overall market volume and energy did not show significant simultaneous amplification, and the index reflected a structural rotation rather than a comprehensive strengthening. In the short-term, the time-sharing trend of chips and some renewable energy stocks shows a rhythm of taking over every return and outputting from the top, with frequent attacks and defenses at support and pressure levels.

Bond yields and volatility are stable. Futures are close to spot and reflect wait-and-see

The intraday change in the 10-year U.S. bond yield rate was limited, and the volatility indicator VIX did not expand abnormally, consistent with the index's slight sawing trend. Stock index futures and spot prices fluctuated slightly simultaneously, indicating that funds are waiting for more policy and financial information to be confirmed before adjusting positions.

Follow-up observations focus on Beige Book Bank and AI Chain financial reports and policy trends

The key to follow-up lies in the Beige Book's description of the economy and employment, the subsequent financial reports and legal statements of large banks and AI supply chains, and the progress of US-China interactions and the government shutdown. If interest rate cut expectations and corporate profit signals remain positive and spread simultaneously to weight technology, the market trend is expected to increase from rotation to breadth; on the contrary, repeated news may still keep the index fluctuating in range.