[U.S. Stocks Before the market] Trump's threat to a ban on oil products outweighs the bullish, and the futures index's sentiment is on the sidelines (2025.10.15)

Trade uncertainty outweighed currencies and earnings gains, and the market maintained a wait-and-see atmosphere ahead of Wednesday's trading in Taiwan time. U.S. stocks closed at odds after a sharp shock in the previous trading day. Investors focused on Trump's trade message with China and potential tariff risks, suppressing the positive sentiment brought by the Federal Reserve Board's possible suspension of balance sheet contraction and large banks 'better-than-expected financial reports. Overall, risk appetite is influenced by the news, and emotions tend to be cautious before the opening.

Futures index and pre-market trading were volatile, reflecting that investors were waiting for policy signals to be clarified. Dow Jones, S & P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures fluctuated narrowly above and below the flat market, lacking a consistent direction. Observed from the spot trend of the previous day, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq converged on declines after a deep intraday decline, while Dow Jones closed slightly higher, indicating that funds are biased towards high-weight defense and stock picking operations in an uncertain environment.

The biggest variable before Trump expands pressure on China is the market's assessment of the impact scope and timing. Trump said he was considering suspending edible oil business related to China and proposed other punitive measures because Beijing had stopped purchasing U.S. soybeans since May. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer pointed out that whether the 10% tariff on China will be implemented depends on China's response. Investors are concerned about the linkage effect of this move on agricultural, oleochemical and related transportation chains, as well as the secondary impact of inflation and corporate costs.

China's inflation data shows that domestic demand is under pressure but core prices are improving, triggering complex interpretations of regional demand. In September, the consumer price index fell 0.3% year-on-year, weaker than economists expected, but the core CPI increased by 1% year-on-year, the highest since February 2024. On the one hand, the data strengthened concerns about deflationary pressure in China, and on the other hand, improvements in core projects provided some support. Asian stock markets mostly strengthened on Wednesday in Taiwan time. South Korea's Kospi index rose more than 2.5%, slightly easing pre-market risk sentiment on U.S. stocks.

The Federal Reserve has issued a signal that it may suspend the contraction of its balance sheet, and the pressure on funds is expected to ease. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the central bank may stop reducing the size of public debt holdings, which is equivalent to stepping on the brakes on the pace of quantitative tightening, which the market interprets as a marginal relaxation of the financial environment. Although the interest rate path still depends on subsequent inflation and employment data, the prospect of no further contraction in liquidity will help reduce valuation discount pressure.

The solid financial results of large banks eased economic worries, and the financial fundamentals were in the positive direction. JPMorgan Chase(JPM), Citigroup(C) and Goldman Sachs(GS) all exceeded market expectations, reflecting the resilience of core lending and capital market activities. Banking stocks, the wind hub of economic activity, delivered good results, supporting assessments of the durability of U.S. corporate profit cycles and helping curb concerns about a rapid cooling of the economy.

The trend of decentralization of AI infrastructure is increasing, and supply chain risks are dispersed into the focus. Oracle(ORCL) announced the deployment of 50,000 Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) Instinct MI450 accelerators starting in the second half of 2026, which means that computing supply will be further diversified from Nvidia(NVDA). The market views this as a layout to reduce the sensitivity of single supply risks and costs, and also highlights that AI capital expenditures are still in the expansion and optimization stage.

International stock markets have different signals, and sentiment has a neutral and stable pre-market impact on U.S. stocks. The European Stoxx 600 index weakened the previous day and hit a two-week low, reflecting that the pressure of external demand and policy uncertainty is still in place; the Asian market generally rose, partly due to expectations for policy support and industrial rotation. The differences in the paths of the two major markets made U.S. stocks lack consistent external driving before the opening.

The attractiveness of fixed income has increased in the European interest rate risk hedging area, and the asset allocation dialogue continues. James Turner, co-head of global fixed income for Europe, Africa and the Middle East at BlackRock(BLK), pointed out that certain niche bond areas in Europe that are less interest-rate sensitive have "real value" and can provide protection against interest rate fluctuations. This view extends the risk trade-off between stocks and bonds, creating a moderate diversion of funds for highly rated growth assets.

The momentum for listing Chinese stocks in the United States has weakened, and Hong Kong has sprung up, and the cross-border capital market has been adjusted. According to Dealogic, since the beginning of this year, the number of IPOs and the amount raised by China companies in the United States have dropped by about 4% year-on-year to US$876 million, or 23 cases. During the same period, the amount raised in Hong Kong has increased by 164% year-on-year to US$18.4 billion, or 56 cases. Beijing's controls on the IPO process and the increased risk of delisting U.S. stocks have prompted some companies to turn to Hong Kong, which has also caused a rebalancing of the stock ecology and liquidity structure of U.S. stocks.

Geopolitical risks still constitute external variables, and the fragility of the Middle East peace process is a hidden worry. While Trump recently announced the end of the Israel-Kazakhstan war, outsiders pointed out that the details of the peace plan are still gray, and key issues such as the withdrawal of troops from Gaza and Gaza to the two-state plan still need to be clarified. Although the market responded to the ceasefire news in the short term, doubts about long-term stability have not been eliminated, and the demand for hedging may heat up again as the situation changes.

Industry news interweaves policy and growth themes, and technology and finance have become the dual core of pre-market attention. The decentralization of AI supply chains and the pre-tax profit resilience of large banks provide symmetrical support for growth and economic cycles respectively; but trade policy uncertainty and conflicting signals from demand for China have led investors to adopt a more conservative review of evaluation and profit assumptions.

Key pre-market observations focus on policies, liquidity and corporate signals, and short-term volatility is susceptible to news. Investors pay attention to the subsequent explanations of the White House and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on tariffs and oil restrictions, pay attention to the Federal Reserve Commission's relevant conversations for further guidance on the pace of shrinking the balance sheet, and track subsequent corporate financial reports and capital expenditure updates. At the same time, observing the immediate reaction of the U.S. stock futures index and credit market spreads to risk appetite, as well as the impact of changes in raw materials and major exchange rates on inflation expectations, will be important clues to measure the opening trend.