AI theme supported semiconductors led the gains, but the market fluctuated.

The four major indexes fell back after rising in early trading. Funds focused on the chip chain, but differences in equity stocks suppressed the rebound of the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was temporarily reported at 46,168.86, down 0.18%; the S & P 500 was temporarily reported at 6,657.97, down 0.20%; The Nasdaq was temporarily reported at 22,667.06, almost flat, down 0.01%; The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was temporarily reported at 6,823.98, up 0.84%. The main line of the market still revolves around the AI supply chain, but the risk of US-China trade and the uncertainty of the U.S. government shutdown keep the market in a seesaw manner.

TSMC's up-to-date outlook strengthens AI visibility and drives the chip population higher.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM) announced a better-than-expected quarterly report. Its single-quarter profit increased in nearly four years and hit a high. At the same time, it twice revised its 2025 revenue growth to the mid-to-30% range, and raised the lower limit of the annual capital expenditure range from US$38 billion to US$40 billion, of which about 70% focused on advanced processes and AI-related production capacity. Chairman Wei Zhejia and Chief Financial Officer Huang Renzhao reiterated that the momentum of the AI chief trend is expected to continue, and relevant information stimulates the momentum of the chip chain. Benefiting sentiment spread, Nvidia(NVDA) rose intraday, Broadcom(AVGO) and Micron Technology(MU) rose simultaneously, Arm Holdings(ARM) was stronger, and Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) was relatively stable.

The divergence of the seven dominant U.S. stocks suppressed the broader market's expansion.

Tesla(Tesla, TSLA) fell 0.92%, Apple(Apple, AAPL) fell 0.83%, Meta Platforms(Facebook parent company, META) fell 0.78%, Microsoft(Microsoft, MSFT) fell 0.35%, Alphabet(Alphabet, GOOGL) rose 0.70%, and Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) remained flat. The sawing of large-scale equity stocks has caused the index to show a pattern in which the volume is concentrated but the index's push is limited, in contrast to the fee-half trend.

Semiconductor and storage chains led the gains. Transportation stocks surged the most eye-catching.

Western Digital(WDC) rose 7.73%, Micron Technology(MU) rose 6.08%. Storage and memory communities benefited from the pulse demand for AI servers; among transportation stocks, J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) surged 20.82%, becoming one of the leading stocks in the intraday gains, indicating that climate-sensitive stocks are attracting funds under the catalysis of some fundamentals.

Trade tensions between the United States and China and the government shutdown have become intraday variables.

Trump once again issued a tough signal, saying that the current situation is in the midst of a long-term trade war; at the same time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued the statement that the truce may be extended, and policy messages affect each other's risk appetite. On the other hand, the U.S. government shutdown entered its third week. The interruption of key economic data weakened the market's immediate interpretation of prosperity and inflation, and investors became more cautious.

The Federal Reserve Committee's movements are still attracting attention, but the message vacuum is amplified and uncertain.

Recently, the market is still digesting possible signals of another interest rate cut within the year. However, due to data gaps and policy noise, the visibility of the interest rate path has declined, making the rotation of growth stocks and cyclical stocks more short-term, and the market trend has shown a pattern of different opinions on high and low base periods.

The scale of AI capital expenditure becomes the focus and the promise of super computing power triggers feasibility discussions.

Citi estimates that if OpenAI wants to fulfill its computing power deployment commitments with partners such as Nvidia(NVDA), Broadcom(AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), it may require more than US$1 trillion in capital expenditures in the next few years., corresponding to 26GW of computing power, estimated at approximately US$50 billion per GW, to US$1.3 trillion in capital expenditures in 2030. The ultra-high-intensity capital cycle provides medium-and long-term imagination for upstream chip, cloud and data center supply chains, and also raises market standards for capital efficiency and payback periods.

AI bubble doubts coexist with discount pricing to reduce systemic risks.

Some Wall Street views point out that the market has reacted to the boom in AI with varying degrees of discounts. DA Davidson cited Oracle(Oracle, ORCL) as an example. It previously disclosed that the backlog of large AI orders drove the stock price higher. However, after media reports that most of the orders were related to OpenAI, the stock price retreated short-term, indicating that the market adopted a discount of about half on the possibility of performance. At the same time, leaders such as TSMC's strong confidence in the AI cycle provides support for the fundamentals of the supply chain and alleviates concerns about bubbles.

The sudden news of individual stocks has triggered violent fluctuations and the division of subject stocks has intensified.

American Battery Technology Company(ABAT) fell 28% in intraday trading after filing with the SEC for the cancellation of a $52 million subsidy from the Department of Energy. The company said it had filed a complaint and would move forward with the plan according to the original schedule. Hims & Hers Health(HIMS) retreated after a surge the day before, as the market digested its message to expand its product line of menopausal and perimenopause treatments. Overseas, Nestlé announced better-than-expected quarterly sales and announced that it would streamline its workforce within two years. The Swiss listed share price rose sharply, bringing a marginal positive reference to the sentiment of defensive consumer stocks in the U.S..

Futures led the market and opened higher in early trading, but the pursuit price became more conservative.

Inspired by TSMC's earnings report, U.S. stocks opened higher for a while, but then fell back and sorted out due to trade and fiscal uncertainties. The intraday session turned into a theme-driven and volatile index pattern. Overall, AI semiconductors were the main axis of many parties that day. Differences in the performance of equity stocks and macro risks limited the index space. In the short term, the news and the fundamentals of the industrial chain were still the main variables.