[Intraday Analysis of U.S. Stocks] Tariff cooling and AI themes promote strong market resilience (2025.10.14)
As concerns about tariffs cooled and AI gains ignited, U.S. stocks rebounded strongly in the intraday session; semiconductors led the gains, and the seven major players generally rose. Broadcom joins hands with OpenAI to boost the supply chain, and the market is focusing on Bauer and the bank's financial reports.
Tariff cooling and AI themes promote strong market resilience
U.S. stocks rebounded in an all-round way, mainly due to Trump's downplay of tariff escalation talks, simultaneous fermentation of AI supply chain profits, and a rise in risk appetite led by technology and semiconductors. Investors focus on short-term Federal Reserve communication and bank earnings opening, in the government shutdown delay data vacuum period, the market to individual stocks and themes dominated the rhythm.
Four major indexes rose simultaneously, semiconductors led the gains
The Dow Jones industrial average was provisionally reported at 46,050.28, up 1.25%. The S & P 500 index was tentatively trading at 6,654.61, up 1.56%. The Nasdaq Composite Index was provisionally reported at 22,668.19, up 2.09%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was temporarily reported at 6,705.62, up 4.65%, reflecting the resurgence of sentiment in the AI chain and demand for efficient computing. The overall trading momentum rebounded significantly compared with the previous trading day, with growth stocks leading and value stocks rising.
Tariff risks cooled to resolve last week's panic selling pressure
U.S. stocks have rebounded sharply since the previous trading day. The key is that former U.S. President Trump downplayed the threat of imposing 100 per cent tariffs on China and alleviated market concerns about the escalation of a comprehensive trade conflict. The emotional reversal has prompted short covering and bargain hunting in groups with high beta and high P/E ratios, and the index has covered some of the decline.
Funds shift to growth and AI-related stocks
Disk funds are concentrated in the semiconductor, cloud and AI server supply chains, and necessary consumption and some industries are relatively backward. Among the 11 major S & P stocks, most of the stocks that rose and needed consumption became a minority that weakened against the trend, indicating that risk appetite is on the rise and safe-haven allocations have cooled down in the short term.
Broadcom joins hands with OpenAI to ignite the AI supply chain
Broadcom(AVGO) is gaining momentum in the market because it announced a partnership with OpenAI to plan a 10GW customized AI accelerator to enhance the visibility of its customized chips and advanced packaging. Relevant groups benefited simultaneously, with Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), Nvidia(NVDA) and ON Semiconductor(ON) rising, driving the F-half index ahead of the market. Arm Holdings(ARM) rose more than 10%, and Entegris(ENTG) performed strongly, indicating that upstream materials and IP licenses share AI expansion expectations. The trading volume of multiple individual stocks has increased significantly compared with recent days, and prices and volumes have risen rapidly.
The top seven U.S. stocks generally move higher technology weights push up the index
Vidia rose 3.02%, Tesla (TSLA) rose 3.73%, Apple (AAPL) rose 1.56%, Meta Platforms(Facebook, META) rose 1.11%, Microsoft(Microsoft, MSFT) rose 0.45%, Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 2.30%, and Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) rose 1.69%. The return of heavyweight stocks led Nasdaq and the S & P 500 to strengthen simultaneously, with the weight of technology and communication services ranking first in contributing to the index.
Differences in trends between consumer and industrial stocks
Fastenal(FAST) fell after earnings fell short of expectations, dragging down sentiment in some industrial and construction supply chains. General Mills(GIS) continues to weaken and approaches a one-year low, reflecting outflows from essential consumer stocks as risk appetite returns. Gaming and tourism stocks came under pressure, with Las Vegas Sands(LVS) falling more than 5%, indicating that groups with high links to China and regional consumption momentum are still affected by investors 'reservations.
M & A themes drive media and entertainment groups to become active
Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD) rose on market news that the company rejected an offer from Paramount Skydance due to low valuations. Rumors spurred media consolidation to heat up the subject matter. Although there is a lack of substantive decisions, funds have responded to possible asset restructuring and cost synergy themes.
Energy and safe-haven assets rose together, and the US dollar strengthened
International gold prices hit an intraday high, standing above US$4,100 per ounce. Oil prices rose simultaneously, reflecting macro uncertainty and intertwined supply-and-demand issues. Bitcoin rebounded from weekend lows and the U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro, pound and yen. Affected by the holidays, the U.S. bond market was closed and there was a lack of immediate guidance on yield rates, making stock market funds more focused on themes and individual stocks.
Government shutdown delayed data market focus on Bauer
The U.S. government shutdown has entered an extended trend. Important economic data, including consumer price inflation reports, have been delayed, and retail sales and wholesale prices may also be delayed. The data vacuum has left the market and the Fed short of immediate economic clues in the short term. The spotlight has turned to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's upcoming talks on economic and monetary policy.
The opening of bank earnings has become the key to finance
The earnings season was led by major banks, with JPMorgan Chase(JPM), Goldman Sachs(GS), Wells Fargo(WFC) and Citigroup(Citigroup, C) being the first to release, followed by Bank of America(BAC) and Morgan Stanley(MS). The market generally expects the profits of the six major banks to increase by about 6% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the trend of net interest margin and trading and investment banking have become the focus of observation.
Futures index and volatility show a recovery in risk appetite
Intraday stock index futures and spot prices rose in the same direction, while the VIX panic index fell, indicating that demand for hedging has cooled. As the bond market was closed and the interest rate side lacked disturbance, the stock market's flexibility in responding to policy and corporate fundamental information was amplified. Technically, it mainly focused on covering gaps and repairing moving averages.
Trading volume and trading strength show short covering characteristics
In the intraday, multiple AI and semiconductor stocks showed both volume and price increases. In the short term, cover buying and chase funds were dominated, supporting the continued strength of stock prices. Relatively weak essential consumption and some service industry stocks still see high selling pressure, with significant ethnic divisions.
Follow-up observations focus on policy tone and corporate profits
The key to the short-term market is whether policy messages and corporate financial reports can continue risk appetite. If tariff and trade-related talks remain moderate, AI capital expenditure signals remain unchanged, and there is no systemic risk in bank earnings reports, the relative advantage of growth stocks is expected to be maintained; conversely, if the policy tone becomes tough again or individual earnings reports trigger downward revisions, the market's turbulence may intensify. During the data gap period, the market will use company-level news and industry chain demand signals as the main basis for transactions.
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