[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Risk appetite weakens AI and retail are the main axis,(2025.08.19)

Risk appetite is weakening, and AI and retail are today's main lines

On the evening of August 19, Taiwan time, most U.S. stock futures fell. The three major indexes on the previous trading day closed almost flat, and pre-market sentiment turned conservative. The market focus is on Intel's investment from SoftBank, Palo Alto Networks 'earnings and outlook better than expected, Home Depot's performance was slightly weaker but maintained full-year guidance, and Apple's expansion of iPhone capacity allocation in India. At the same time, the AI bubble controversy continues to heat up, affecting the evaluation of technology stocks.

Futures trend is weak, bond yields are flat, oil prices fall

Nasdaq 100 futures fell slightly by about 0.1%, S & P 500 futures fell slightly, and Dow Jones futures rose slightly. The yield rate of the 10-year U.S. bond bond has not changed much, energy prices have weakened, international oil prices have fallen back by more than 1%, and gold prices have risen slightly, indicating a slight increase in safe-haven demand. In terms of crypto assets, Bitcoin is approximately US$115,600, and the overall risk assets are moderately under pressure.

Home Depot data is soft, and guidance remains unchanged throughout the year

Home Depot(HD) announced adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter of US$4.68 and a year-on-year increase in same-store sales of 1.0%, both below the market expectations of Visible Alpha. Revenue of US$45.28 billion and an year-on-year increase of 4.9%, were in line with consensus. The company continues the outlook for the fiscal year 2025 released in May and continues to respond to price pressure caused by tariffs. Data showed that demand for home improvement remained moderate. Although it was not better than expected, it did not deteriorate significantly. Home Depot's pre-market share price turned slightly higher after a preliminary decline, and the trend of individual stocks in the retail and durable goods chain was affected by this.

Intel receives funding, and capital strengthening themes attract attention

Intel(Intel, INTC) surged about 5% before the market, mainly due to Japan's Softbank Group's announcement of a share purchase of US$23 per share and an investment of US$2 billion. When the news came out, the market also reported that the U.S. government was considering holding shares in Intel. The company's CEO's recent meeting with U.S. President Trump attracted attention. For Intel, which is actively investing in advanced processes and OEM, external funding and policy support will help capital expenditures and transformation plans, and will also deepen investors 'discussions on the capital cycle of the AI hardware supply chain. However, the pace of evaluation and reassessment still depends on the process schedule and customer momentum.

Palo Alto Internet's financial forecast is better than expectations for resilience of asset security spending

Palo Alto Networks(PANW) rose more than 6% in pre-market trading. The company announced adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of US$0.95, revenue of US$2.54 billion, and a year-on-year increase of 16%, both of which were better than Visible Alpha consolidated expectations; profit and revenue guidance for the current quarter and the 2026 fiscal year are also higher than market consensus. The company also announced the retirement of founder and chief technology officer Nir Zuk. Data strengthens market confidence in cloud, protection and platform integration needs, and security stocks are expected to continue their relatively strong fundamentals.

Supply chain rebalancing, Apple expands India's iPhone production capacity

According to Bloomberg, Apple(AAPL) is expanding iPhone production in five factories in India and producing the entire new iPhone 17 series locally in order to reduce the impact of tariffs on exports from China to the United States. Apple announced earlier this month at the White House that it would invest an additional US$100 billion in U.S. manufacturing sites, demonstrating that its global production landscape continues to diversify. Apple fell slightly before the market. The market assessed the structural impact of production capacity transfers on supplier division of labor and delivery arrangements, and the long-term layout of relevant Taiwanese supply chains also attracted attention.

AI bubble controversy heats up, emotional division continues

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the AI industry is at a stage where investors are over-excited, while still emphasizing the long-term importance of AI. OpenAI is negotiating a share sale of about US$6 billion, valued at about US$500 billion;Altman also mentioned that the United States may underestimate China's progress in AI. Market views are not consistent. Some Wall Street analysts believe that although there is local overheating, the medium-and long-term real impact is still underestimated. Industrial research institutions emphasize that AI is not a homogeneous market, and there is a clear differentiation between leaders and chasers. Relevant remarks have brought marginal adjustment pressure to the evaluation of large-scale technology and AI chains.

International stock market signals are moderate, Asian stocks are divided and European stocks rise slightly

The rise and fall of the three major U.S. stock indexes in the previous trading day were all less than 0.1 percentage points, indicating that the market is taking a wait-and-see approach before the intensive launch of retail earnings reports. In terms of European stocks, STOXX Europe 600 rose slightly by 0.08%; Asian stocks were divided, and SoftBank Group's share price fell more than 5%, reflecting fluctuations in its investment actions and emotions. The overall performance of international stock markets is neutral, which has limited impact on the opening sentiment of U.S. stocks, but the volatility of some news stocks has intensified.

Geopolitical variables remain, adding uncertainty to White House talks

Foreign news reported that U.S. President Trump met with Ukraine President Zelensky to pave the way for a three-way dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin and discuss security assurance plans. Market news pointed out that about US$90 billion in US-made weapons purchases were involved. Geophysical risks may have a short-term impact on sentiment in the defense industry, energy and commodities, and investors continue to assess the impact of conflict paths on capital and safe-haven demand.

Pre-market capital movements, with fluctuations concentrated on financial reports and single news stocks

Home Depot, Intel, Palo Alto Networks and Apple became the most watched heavyweights and theme stocks before the market. Although the volatility in futures trading was small, the differences in the trend of individual stocks widened. Falling oil prices are relatively beneficial to cost-sensitive industries such as aviation and transportation. Higher gold prices indicate the existence of demand for hedging. Technology heavyweights are affected by AI evaluation discussions and individual news. Market rotation may rely more on fundamentals and event catalysis.

Interest rates anchor sentiment, and retail earnings are the main theme for the short term

In the absence of significant macro data, the stability of the 10-year U.S. bond yield rate has become an important anchor for valuation sensitivity, and changes in financial conditions will continue to drive risk appetite. Retail earnings week has entered a critical segment. The latest descriptions of demand profiles in sub-industries such as home improvement, general retail and cloud security have increased their impact on the short-term price and volume structure of U.S. stocks, and index performance is easily driven by one-day messages from heavyweights.

Risks and opportunities coexist, focusing on capital flow and pricing elasticity

Overall, the futures index is weak, the signals of commodities and bond markets are neutral, and the AI bubble controversy and actual corporate data are intertwined, showing a cautious bias before the market today. The focus is on the better-than-expected performance of information security, the warming of semiconductor capital themes, and the steady growth of retail leaders rather than the bright three-line pattern. Investors can continue to observe whether they can focus on a small number of weighted and subject stocks, the implications of oil and gold divergence on risk appetite, and the extent to which subsequent financial reports and management guidance have revised the year-round growth trajectory.