Market analysis

Good news continues to emerge from Trump's tariff negotiations. The United States and Europe formally reached a trade agreement over the weekend, and the United States will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods. In response, the EU promised to import US$750 billion in energy from the United States and invest an additional US$600 billion in the United States, open European markets to exemptions from tariffs, and expand procurement of U.S. military equipment. In addition, U.S. and Chinese officials held two-day talks to extend the tariff truce beyond August 12 and seek to balance economic security with bilateral trade stability. Canadian Prime Minister Makari also said that trade negotiations with the United States are in depth. If countries do not reach an agreement with the United States, commodity tax rates will be set between 15% and 20% based on global standards. Driven by this, U.S. stock futures rose and opened higher during the Asian session.

However, this week, U.S. stocks are facing a number of important observations, including economic data such as the FOMC interest rate decision meeting, the PCE price index, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, as well as financial reports from technology giants such as Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) will be announced one after another. As a result, the overall increase in U.S. stocks was limited, and most of the indices fluctuated near the flat. However, the Fair-Half Index closed strong due to the outstanding performance of the semiconductor community.

类股方面，能源股受油价上扬与欧盟能源采购激励走强，涨幅居冠；资讯科技股表现居次，受惠AI政策加持与超微（AMD）调涨MI350晶片报价（从1.5万美元调涨至2.5万美元，增幅67%），激励股价大涨4.3%，并带动辉达（NVDA）、博通（AVGO）上扬；非必需消费股在特斯拉（TSLA）领涨下表现出色，主要受益于欧洲设厂前景，以及与三星签署165亿美元AI晶片合约。反观，房地产与原物料类股则受到高利率与库存压力影响而表现疲弱；医疗保健与必需消费类股则因市场避险情绪降温，亦相对落后。

 

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general manager Daryl

U.S. global tariff policy is becoming clearer, and market expectations for the impact of a trade war are cooling down

Despite U.S. President Trump's strong push for tariff policies, Wall Street's fears about a trade war are fading. The latest agreement with the European Union, the UK and Japan shows that global tariff benchmarks will fall between 15% and 20%, lower than previous market fears of 25% or higher. At the same time, U.S. -China trade negotiations are actively underway, with both sides seeking to extend the agreement to suspend tariff increases and pave the way for a summit between Trump and Xi Jinping. Although there are still potential risks, strong global economic fundamentals, limited inflationary pressure and a loose financial environment have significantly reduced the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession.

• Global tariff placement is stable
  川普表示，未签署协议的国家将面临15%至20%范围的统一关税，高于年初的单位数水准，但低于4月初提出的25%甚至145%极端方案。

• Market response was milder than expected
  随关税最终水准明朗，JPMorgan将美国陷入衰退的机率从60%下调至40%。投资人对经济放缓风险反应冷静，股市未出现剧烈波动。

• U.S. -China talks seek to extend truce
  美中官员在斯德哥尔摩进行会谈，盼延长90天的暂停关税协议。若未达成协议，8月12日后高额关税恐重新启动，对全球供应链构成压力。

• Federal Reserve Board policy flexibility increased
  随著通膨控制得宜且经济未现硬著陆，联准会9月降息机率提升。市场预期本周会议将观望态度为主，聚焦对关税对物价影响的评估。

• Taiwan and geopolitical risk mitigation
  台湾总统赖清德延后原订访美行程，避免在美中谈判期间激化紧张局势。这为可能的川习会保留更多外交空间，有助稳定地区局势。

industry

The growth of the U.S. smart phone market is slowing down, and the rise of Indian-made mobile phones impacts China's supply chain position

According to the Canalys report, the U.S. smartphone market grew only slightly by 1% in the second quarter of 2025, mainly due to economic pressure and sluggish demand. But at the same time, India became the largest source of smartphone manufacturing in the United States for the first time, mainly due to Apple's accelerated transfer of its supply chain to India in response to US-China trade uncertainty and pressure from the United States to impose additional tariffs. This shift has led to a significant decline in the share of China-made mobile phones in the U.S. market, from 61% in the same period in 2024 to 25%. The overall supply chain is experiencing a trend of geographical reorganization, which has a profound impact on the Asian manufacturing landscape.

• Shipments of Indian-made mobile phones grow significantly
  印度制手机在美国市场年增240%，首次成为最大供应来源，主要受苹果加速供应链转移所推动。

• The proportion of mobile phones made in China has dropped sharply
  中国手机出货占比从一年前的61%降至25%，反映出厂商积极分散风险并规避美国关税压力。

• Apple's strategy is under pressure from the US
  苹果虽在印度扩大生产，但仍面临总统川普威胁若未在美国本土生产，将面临额外关税。

• Overall demand is weak
  尽管厂商提前补库存因应政策风险，但市场仅成长1%，显示终端销售与实际需求仍有落差。

• Brand performance differentiation
  苹果出货年减11%，反观三星（005930.KS）出货成长38%，显示市场竞争格局变动中。

stocks

AMD raises the price of the MI350 to $25,000 to compete with Nvidia in the AI market

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) announced a significant increase in the price of its Instinct MI350 AI accelerator from $15,000 to $25,000, a 67% increase. This move shows that the company has a high degree of confidence in the demand for AI products and is expected to bring substantial revenue boost to the next quarter's earnings report. At the same time, the new generation of MI355X GPUs began shipping in June, becoming the focus of market attention. Analysts estimate that GPU revenue from the Q3 data center will reach US$1.65 billion in fiscal year 2025. Although export restrictions have limited sales in the China market, there is still potential for growth if the license is renewed. AMD's price adjustment and new product launch mean that it will actively attack the US$500 billion AI computing market and challenge NVDA's leading position.

• MI350 price rises sharply
  AMD将Instinct MI350价格调升至25,000美元，尽管仍低于辉达Blackwell B200，但涨幅高达67%，显示市场需求强劲。

• MI 355 X GPU becomes key to performance
  新品MI355X已于6月出货，市场密切观察其被采用速度，将影响8月5日公布的第二季财报表现。

• Q3 Data Center Revenue Forecast
  分析师预测Q3资料中心GPU营收为16.5亿美元，年增温和，已计入8亿美元中国市场出口限制带来的拖累。

• Export licensing affects operating flexibility
  若美国政府续发MI308X出口中国的许可证，将成为下半年营收成长的重要推力。

• Challenge Huida's AI dominance
  随著产品性能与定价策略双管齐下，AMD强化在AI市场的竞争力，试图在5,000亿美元规模的市场中分食更多份额。

Tesla and Samsung sign a $16.5 billion AI chip order to promote the transformation of Texas factory and foundry business

Tesla (TSLA) and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) signed a chip supply agreement worth US$16.5 billion, with Samsung's new fab in Taylor, Texas responsible for the production of Tesla's next-generation AI6 chips. This agreement will give Samsung a boost to its long-term development of its logic wafer foundry business and is expected to improve its wafer foundry division, which has continued to lose money in recent years. Although this cooperation is unlikely to immediately change the bottleneck in Tesla's electric vehicle sales or autonomous driving promotion in the short term, it is of strategic significance to both parties 'layout of AI computing chips and autonomy in the supply chain.

• AI6 chips are produced by Samsung's Texas factory
  马斯克亲自证实AI6晶片将由三星美国德州厂生产，该厂曾因缺乏客户而进度延误，这次订单对其营运具有关键转捩点。

• Samsung's OEM business is excited
  三星目前在全球晶圆代工市占仅8%，远低于台积电（TSMC）67%，此次与特斯拉合作有望缩小差距并重振市场信心。

• Musk emphasizes strategic value
  马斯克透露特斯拉将参与产线效率优化，并暗示实际订单金额可能远高于165亿美元，突显此交易非单纯商业合约，更具战略合作意涵。

• Mass production schedule is estimated after 2027
  根据特斯拉的晶片开发节奏，AI6晶片大概率于2027至2028年间量产，短期无助于解决电动车销售放缓与机器人计划延宕问题。

• Samsung invades new market for AI chips
  尽管目前在高频宽记忆体（HBM）领域落后SK海力士与美光，三星透过与特斯拉合作的AI晶片代工，有望转攻AI推论运算应用新蓝海。

Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses sales increase threefold year-on-year, EssilorLuxottica's performance hits new high

EssilorLuxottica announced that sales of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses launched in partnership with Meta will triple in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period last year, becoming the main driver of the company's overall revenue growth. This wave of success helped its total revenue in the first half of the year reach 14.02 billion euros (approximately US$16.25 billion), a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. With the launch of Oakley Meta and future Prada's joint smart glasses product lines, EssilorLuxottica and Meta are actively deploying wearable devices as key entrances to the next generation computing platform.

• Ray-Ban Meta glasses sales surge
  该产品结合时尚与科技，搭载Meta语音助理与摄影功能，深受市场青睐，销售额年增三倍，显示消费者对穿戴式智慧设备接受度提升。

• Smart glasses drive overall revenue growth
  EssilorLuxottica上半年营收达162.5亿美元，年增7.3%，Ray-Ban Meta眼镜为主要贡献来源之一。

• Oakley and Prada product lines are about to expand
  公司已于6月推出Oakley Meta Performance智慧眼镜，未来也将推出与Prada联名款，进一步巩固多元品牌战略。

• Long-term cooperation to deepen technical layout
  Meta与EssilorLuxottica已延长合作至2030年代，将共同研发多代智慧眼镜产品，融合AI与感测技术，瞄准下一代运算平台。

• Meta promotes AI integration strategy
  结合AI语音、感测与健康应用的智慧眼镜产品，将成为Meta实现其AI运算愿景的重要终端载体，加速其硬体生态系构建。

Waymo will enter Dallas in 2026 to expand the U.S. unmanned taxi commercial landscape

Waymo, Alphabet's self-driving division, announced that it will launch a driverless taxi service in Dallas in 2026, further expanding its commercial operation cities to include Miami and Washington, D.C. This entry into Dallas is led by car rental company Avis responsible for fleet management and strengthens cooperation between the two parties in smart transportation and fleet operations. Waymo currently provides more than 250,000 paid transfers per week in five major cities, continuing to lead other self-driving competitors such as Tesla, Zoox and several startups.

• Dallas is Waymo's next stop
  Waymo已于达拉斯市中心测试Jaguar I-PACE搭载自驾系统的车辆，2026年将正式启用Waymo App提供无人叫车服务。

• Avis team management role expands
  Avis将协助营运与维护Waymo在达拉斯的自驾车车队，转型为智慧车队基础设施供应商，深化Mobility生态系参与度。

• Waymo leads the commercialization process
  Waymo目前每周进行超过250,000笔付费行程，主要市场涵盖亚特兰大、奥斯汀、洛杉矶、凤凰城与旧金山，持续扩大市场领导地位。

• International competition and market layout
  在国际市场方面，中国百度Apollo Go为主要竞争对手，并有意进军欧洲市场，全球Robotaxi竞赛持续升温。

• Alphabet increases revenue share of Other Bets
  Waymo已成为Alphabet Other Bets部门主要贡献来源之一，该部门Q2营收为3.73亿美元，但仍亏损12.5亿美元，显示长期投资尚未转盈。